The markets Friday received more data that suggests the global economic expansion is strengthening: The International Energy Agency again increased its 2010 global oil demand forecast, this time by 70,000 barrels per day, to 86.6 million barrels per day (bpd). This represents a 1.8% or 1.6 million bpd increase from the same period a year ago. Further, in its March report, the IEA forecasts that all of the demand increase will occur in emerging markets, or in what IEA calls non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developed (OECD) countries. Oil traded Friday afternoon down 84 cents to $81.27 per barrel. However, oil is still up more than 100% since December 2008.
Meanwhile, the IEA put global oil supply at 86.6 million bpd, or up 900,000 bpd from the February estimate.
The IEA also put OECD inventories/stocks at 2,703 million barrels, up from 2,678 million barrels a month ago, good for a 59.2-day-supply, 0.1 day shorter than a year ago.
Economic Analysis: The IEA's upward revision in global oil demand is yet another positive for both the U.S. and global economic expansions. The upside? Rising oil demand implies an increase in commercial activity and trade -- i.e. an increase in aggregate demand that propels GDP. The downside? You guessed it: gasoline prices, in the U.S. currently averaging about $2.79 per gallon for regular unleaded, are likely to trend quickly toward $3. Indeed, if the present global oil demand trend continues, $3 per gallon may look low by late summer in the states.
The IEA also put OECD inventories/stocks at 2,703 million barrels, up from 2,678 million barrels a month ago, good for a 59.2-day-supply, 0.1 day shorter than a year ago.
Economic Analysis: The IEA's upward revision in global oil demand is yet another positive for both the U.S. and global economic expansions. The upside? Rising oil demand implies an increase in commercial activity and trade -- i.e. an increase in aggregate demand that propels GDP. The downside? You guessed it: gasoline prices, in the U.S. currently averaging about $2.79 per gallon for regular unleaded, are likely to trend quickly toward $3. Indeed, if the present global oil demand trend continues, $3 per gallon may look low by late summer in the states.
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