Shares of Research In Motion's (RIMM), first recommended on May 5, 2009, at a price of $77.07, remain in recovery mode. After arcing to $88, RIMM's shares had swooned to about $54 in the fall 2009, including a protracted drop below the key, 50-day moving average -- a technical support breach that raised caution flags.
However, after reporting November quarter EPS of $1.10, well above the $1.04 First Call estimate, the shares reversed, and have since regained much of the ground lost during the swoon.
Further, RIMM's revenue should increase 35-40% in 2010, led of course by the BlackBerry wireless e-mail device -- a device that has become the standard in large corporations/public institutions, and that has started to gain traction in the consumer segment. Unit sales and subscriber growth remain adequate, but average selling prices are likely to trend lower in 2010.
The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for RIMM are $4.36 to $5.09.
2010 Outlook: I view Research In Motion as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell RIMM within the year, it's probably best to take your profits after it rises to $87-89, if it fails to clear $90.
Stock Analysis: I consider Research In Motion be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 25% position in RIMM now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 50% of my RIMM position before April 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at $37.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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