Reportedly, former American International Group (AIG) lead man Maurice Greenberg (called "Hank" by most and the "Gangster of Love" by yours truly) has agreed to a staged sale of his AIG shares to UBS (UBS).
On Friday, Starr International (Greenberg's investment vehicle) issued a filing with the SEC stating that it will sell as many as 10 million shares of Greenberg's former firm in four blocks of 2.5 million shares. The price tag for the deal comes in at $278 million. The way the deal is structured is known as a variable prepaid forward sale.
This sort of transaction takes place in order to limit exposure to volatility, and that is exactly what Greenberg wants to do; limit his exposure to volatility in AIG's price. I started to wonder, what kind of volatility could we be looking at with AIG? Yes, the stock plummeted in the past, but it seems to have staged a nice little turnaround, which started in early February. After eclipsing its 10-, 20- and 50-day moving averages, the stock has advanced from the $22 region to as high as $38 earlier this month. What's more, the shares are perched atop their 10- and 20-week moving averages, so these trendlines could provide support if needed. I am sure that there has to be something that could cause some volatility in the shares going forward, right?
First things first, the short-term advance cannot overshadow the fact that AIG has taken investors on a turbulent ride since the beginning of 2008. Next, I went searching for some sign of what could have Greenberg running for volatility shelter. After scouring chart after chart, article after article, note after note, I think I found something (just kidding, I did find something but it happened as soon as I looked at AIG's monthly chart). I wonder if Greenberg is a bit spooked at the prospect of the stock running headlong into resistance from its 10-month moving average. This trendline has acted as a lodestone for AIG, pushing it away every time the stock tests the resistance. The last time AIG finished a month atop this resistance was back in October 2007. Maybe Maurice sees this resistance looming and feels that the stock is due to drop? Perhaps.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
3-23-2010 @ 7:18AM
stephen platt said...
Glad to see that Greenberg and at least one other person on this earth knows what they are doing. Clearly, the regulators who allowed this fiasco to play out should be discharged and made never to reproduce. One can never tell what you will see in the next election.