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Typically, a bank stock that meanders for the better part of a year would raise a caution flag in these circles. But not so when that bank is The Bank of New York Mellon (BK), which I first wrote about on April 6, 2009, at a price of $28.16.Look for BK's 2010 revenue to rise about 7% to 10%, on higher fees and improving margins. Asset management fees in its equities and fixed income businesses should record solid increases, on price gains in those markets and due to increased client deposits. New business wins add to the positive mix.
Founded by Alexander Hamilton, The Bank of New York provides services that enable institutions and individuals to move and manage their financial assets in more than 100 markets globally. The core of BK's business, custodial services, is doing just fine, with more than $16 trillion in assets under custody.
The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for BK are $2.34 to $2.80. Each EPS estimate looks about 5% low, according to my analysis.
Technically, as noted, The Bank of New York's stock exhibited sideways action for about a year, but has recently broken through resistance at/near $31.
2010 Outlook: I view The Bank of New York as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell BK within the year, it's probably best to take your profits after it rises to $38-39, if it fails to rise above $40.
Stock Analysis: I consider The Bank of New York Mellon to be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 50% position in BK now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 75% of my BK position before June 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at $17.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for BK are $2.34 to $2.80. Each EPS estimate looks about 5% low, according to my analysis.
Technically, as noted, The Bank of New York's stock exhibited sideways action for about a year, but has recently broken through resistance at/near $31.
2010 Outlook: I view The Bank of New York as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell BK within the year, it's probably best to take your profits after it rises to $38-39, if it fails to rise above $40.
Stock Analysis: I consider The Bank of New York Mellon to be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 50% position in BK now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 75% of my BK position before June 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at $17.
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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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