Serious Money: Goldman Sachs Shares Dirt Cheap


It is an unfortunate thing that we live in a world where you are guilty until proven innocent in far too many cases. This is the burden that Goldman Sachs (GS) faces as it has been convicted in the court of public opinion. Not only has it been convicted, but the public does not actually care whether it is guilty or not. The public feels Goldman has done the nation wrong and must pay.

On Tuesday, Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, is testifying in front of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. He will try to put his best foot forward, and hopefully it will not end up in his mouth. Blankfein may be top dog at the company, but he would do himself a big favor if he stays cool, calm and collected -- and maybe before the day is up someone will throw him a bone.

The public may want Goldman Sachs to pay, but how much should you pay for the stock under these circumstances?

When the Securities and Exchange Commission fraud charges came out almost two weeks ago, I thought the situation created an opportunity. At that time, I bought a few shares at $162 because I felt the stock's $13 billion plunge was excessive. Last week, the stock went down more and I bought a few more shares, lowering my basis a little.

Even if (or when) I turn out to be right in the end, I am down for now because the stock slid another few dollars Monday under the cloud of Tuesday's hearings, closing at $152.03. Apparently, I have not mastered the art of catching falling knives. And fool that I am, will probably be selling puts. The October puts with a $155 strike price paying over $17.00 per share, making the break even around $142.00 seem very appealing to me right now.

The prognosticator in me says that Goldman will have settled this case by then, even if Blankfein has to fall on his sword for the good of the company. As much as he has badmouthed the SEC, DOJ and the Senate, right or wrong, his neck may be the price of the settlement -- along with a small amount of cash.

If this is the case, the stock could end the year at $200 per share where it belongs because the stock is dirt cheap now. With a P/E below 8, P/B at 1.3 and the P/CF less than 5.0, the stock is undervalued by at least 30% even if the bank were to lose a few clients.

However, if the circus continues and Goldman Sachs insists on holding out for a trial, management will end up looking like clowns while the stock languishes. Oh, for an ounce of wisdom.

Update: Sharing the investing adventure --- I sold to open (naked puts) the October $160 puts receiving $20.30 per share returning over 25% on an annualized basis, with a break-even point being $139.70.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 12:29 PM

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