Burger King: Decent Q3, but Sector Concerns Persist


At least initially, investors were impressed by hamburger chain Burger King's (BKC) beat of Wall Street's third quarter earnings estimate, 30 cents compared to the First Call estimate of 29 cents, with its shares jumping 3.5% to $21.41 on Thursday at mid-day.

Further, investors appeared to cut Burger King some slack, as the winter quarter's severe weather artificially depressed traffic. Chief Executive Officer John Chidsey said sales increased in March and were slightly higher in April, although they were still lower compared to a year ago. Burger King earned 34 cents in the third quarter of fiscal 2009.

Otherwise, the problematic restaurant revenue trend continued at BKC. Worldwide, same store sales declined 3.7% in the third quarter, including a 6.7% decline in the large U.S./Canada market. Worldwide restaurant margins dipped to 11.3% from 11.7% a year ago.

Overall, third quarter revenue fell 0.5% to $596.9 million compared to the First Call estimate of $598.1 million.

Burger King cited the persistence of "a very challenging macroeconomic environment" as one reason sales remain sluggish. High U.S. unemployment/underemployment levels have removed a portion of Burger King's traffic.

Stock Analysis: After controlling for the idiosyncratic winter weather element, Burger King posted a modest quarter, but the long-term narrative remains the same. The U.S. market has too many fast-food restaurant chains given the 'frugal consumer' era and the shift toward healthier foods. That points to sector consolidation and it remains an open question whether Burger King can offer a unique, value-oriented hamburger experience to propel restaurant traffic significantly higher. The calculation here argues BKC will not be able to, hence I'd avoid the shares.

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Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 02:13 PM

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