First Solar: An Encouraging First Quarter


First Solar: A Buy?First Solar (FSLR), which I first discussed here on Feb. 1, 2010 at a price of $113.81, is off to a good start in 2010, and I obviously still like the shares here.

First Solar posted first quarter earnings per share of $2.00 -- well above the $1.63 First Call estimate. That puts FSLR on pace for a 25% to 35% revenue increase in 2010.

Also, look for FSLR to increase its capacity to about 1.34 gigawatts by the end of 2010 from 1.23 gigawatts in 2009.

Still, First Solar remains a high-risk stock. It has a promising business model, but given solar's ever-changing technology story (module manufacturer costs, competition from China, demand contingent on high classic energy prices), it's not a stock for squeamish investors.

The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for FSRL are $6.34 to $7.44.

Technically, the First Solar stock chart appears to have put in a bottom at or near $97, and the recent uptrend is encouraging. But investors should keep in mind that FSLR is a very volatile stock: sudden, inexplicable reverses can occur, and a 10% to 15% drop in a week is not unusual. In other words, if you're looking for a "Steady-Eddie" play, FSLR is not it.

2010 Outlook: I view First Solar as a long-term play, but if investors are looking to sell FSLR within the year, it's probably best to avoid the shares, as the rapidly changing solar sector makes it very hard to predict one-year returns.

Stock Analysis: I consider First Solar to be a high-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 25% position in FSLR now; then buy another 25% in one month, if U.S. and global economic conditions don't worsen substantially. Under any circumstance, I wouldn't buy more than 50% of my FSLR position before June 2010 and I'd put a sell/stop loss at: $94.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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