Should You Speculate on THQ?


THQ (THQI) has been an interesting stock. The video-game publisher continues to remain in the land of single-digit equities. It used to be a powerful investment vehicle several years ago, but now it unfortunately is an entity more prone to speculative analysis. Will it be taken over? Will a new hit emerge from its pipeline? Will the turnaround effort finally cause all the institutions on Wall Street to buy?

Over the last twelve months, the company has traded in a 52-week range between $4.12 and $9.03. The one-year chart illustrates the rocky road management has traveled in its efforts to get back on track. How does the stock look now that fiscal Q4 numbers have been released?

Not overly bad, in a relative sense. Considering the general market conditions, down 25 cents to $6.49 (which is what my screen is showing as I write this) isn't too shabby.

According to Reuters, THQ made an adjusted 6 cents per share, five pennies better than expectations. More importantly, perhaps, is the comparison to the previous year's adjusted results. The corporate press release says that a loss of 54 cents was recorded at that time.

There's no doubt about it: the software publisher, whose competitors include Activision Blizzard (ATVI) and Electronic Arts (ERTS), is doing better. In terms of valuation, I wouldn't call the business cheap, but it may improve its proposition in that area over time.

Here's the deal: THQ is for risk capital only. Those who buy have to understood that they are speculating. Yes, this is one of those stocks that could get a sudden pop. I do believe THQ will eventually rise again, but judging by its one-year price action, it doesn't represent a guaranteed shot at capital appreciation. If you do buy, make the company only a small portion of your portfolio, the part you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.

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