Where's the Market Going? Five Experts' Views


In the wake of the incredible volatility of recent days, we turn to several leading financial newsletter advisors, asking "Where's the market going from here?"

Here's an updated assessment -- as well as some select investment ideas -- from Elliott Gue, Richard Moroney, Nicholas Vardy, Keith Fitz-Gerald and Mike Cintolo.

We begin with Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist, who asserts, "Don't panic. Selling into a panic-driven market is one of the worst and most costly mistakes you can make as an investor. I do not believe the fundamentals justify the downside in my recommended stocks, nor do I see this ballooning into an outright crash or collapse.

"Panic-driven markets tend to turn quickly and the snapback rallies are typically impressive. That recovery may already be beginning; the market has regained considerable lost ground intraday.

Gue continues,"I recommend using this as an opportunity to accumulate buy-rated names at attractive prices.

"In particular, some of the strongest stocks in my coverage universe such as Linn Energy (LINE), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) have finally pulled back and offer impressive yields. There's no change to any of my recommendations."

Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts says, "While stocks have bounced sharply from the worst levels of yesterday, considerable damage has been done in a fairly short period.

"Since closing at the highest level in more than a year on April 23 - 11,204.28 - the Dow Industrials have dropped more than 700 points while the Dow Transports have dropped more than 400 points from their May 3 closing high.

"Since the close of trading on Friday April 23, all 10 economic sectors of the market have dropped at least 3.5%. The defensive sectors of health care, utilities and consumer staples have held up best, while energy, materials, financials and technology are down at least 9%.

"For the immediate future, our plan is to sit tight and look for opportunities. While trading seems likely to remain volatile in the near term, we are not adjusting our portfolios. As a partial hedge, our Buy List and Focus List have 13.2% in Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX). Our Long-Term Buy List has 15% in this relatively low-risk bond fund."

Nicholas Vardy, editor of The Global Stock Investor, explains, "After such a steady upward move since the February lows, markets were, in many ways, looking for an excuse for a correction.

"The fear of contagion from Greece -- combined with still unclear technical issues -- provided that excuse. When risk aversion soars, there is no escape as investors throw the baby out with the bathwater.

"All you can do is control your downside risk by sticking to your stops. Overall, I remain bearish on the euro - and bullish on your position in UltraShort Euro ProShares (EUO) and WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan (CYB).

"Our bet against the euro remains a buy. Meanwhile, revaluation of the yuan is not a question of "if" but "when."

"I also remain optimistic that the global economy - and, in particular, Asia -- is well on its way to economic recovery. Both countries and companies are growing at a faster-than-expected rate, and that bodes well for the months ahead."

Keith Fitz-Gerald, editor of The Money Map Report adds, "I've been up most of the night talking with traders around the world and crunching numbers, and I have come to one stark conclusion - it could have been a lot worse. So let's just keep our perspective and keep our cool.

"We've known this was coming for months and that the markets we're riding are on the edge of Occam's Razor. Nothing goes up forever. This market was long overdue for a correction.

"Even if last week's avalanche is determined to be computer error or some other mistake, that doesn't change the fact that the world's currency markets are severely impaired. Nor does it alter the fact that Greece is in severe trouble, as is the E.U. This game isn't over by a long shot.

"On that note, resources clearly took the brunt of today's action, which is why many pundits are hypothesizing about falling global demand again. Don't listen.

"Instead, remember two things: 1) Resources are priced in dollars, so with today's run on the dollar, it was logical that resources companies got pounded; and 2) If panic truly does set in, resources and other hard assets will be a pretty good place to hide... perhaps the only place.

"Speaking of which, I want to remind you that it's not too late to pick up shares in favorite hedging tool, the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Fund (RYURX). Not only does it help dampen overall portfolio volatility, but it can produce some nice profits when everything else comes apart."

Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Report says, "The market really came unglued and most leading stocks have cracked, and the major indexes are below their 50-day lines.

"We advise respecting the market's action by at least lightening up if you're heavily invested. As for buying, we'd keep it light, and only consider it if you have an abundance of cash (70% or more).

"Just remember that in a down market, good stocks can go bad in a hurry. So keep any new positions small, keep them on tight leashes, and remember that the goal for now is to preserve your capital, not to grow it.

"We think the next bounce in the market will be revealing, as the best stocks will likely bounce very strongly, giving you an early inkling of their leadership potential. s for individual stocks, we'll just hammer out some names that, so far, have held up relatively well.

"Allied Nevada Gold (ANV) is still trading above its recent breakout level of 17; it's acting like one of the leaders in the precious metals group.

"Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) is above its 50-day line, though choppy, after hiking its earnings outlook this week. It's hanging in there very well.

"Baidu (BIDU) has taken on some water, but the stock remains well above its moving averages and has actually given ground grudgingly since its big earning gap last week. Encouragingly, earnings estimates have soared of late; the bottom line is projected to rise 82% this year and another 56% in 2011!

"Netflix (NFLX), despite a massive advance in recent weeks, is still hovering above its 25-day moving average-an extremely impressive feat. This is definitely one to watch, especially with the company's position asthe leader in streaming video.

"Talbots (TLB) is extraordinarily impressive, still holding above the 15 level and keeping most of its gains since breaking out in late March above 11. Earnings estimates for this year have been hiked to 71 cents per share, up from a loss last year and up from an estimate of 51 cents just a month ago."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a free daily review of the favorite stock ideas of the nation's top financial newsletter advisors.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+6.5112,890.46
NASDAQ+11.372,927.23
S&P 500+1.991,351.95

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 07:23 AM

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