Home Depot: Store Traffic Trend Is Encouraging


Home Depot Inc.'s (HD) first quarter report mirrored the progress of the U.S. economy during the initial stage of the recovery: modest growth, with the prospect of improving results, but not a return to robust growth.

Home Depot earned 45 cents per share in the first quarter, versus the Thomson/Reuters First Call estimate of 40 cents. A year ago, the company earned 30 cents per share.

Revenue increased 4.3% to $16.9 billion, excluding a one-time charge. Equally significant, Home Depot now expects 2010 sales to increase 3.5% and earnings to rise 21% to $1.88. The 2010 First Call earnings estimate is $1.88; First Call also expects the company to earn $2.22 in 2011.

Home Depot attributed the quarterly results to a solid performance in seasonal categories and an increase in customer traffic.

Stock Analysis: First discussed on May 20, 2009 at a price of $23.83, I still like Home Depot's shares. The argument forward here is that while no one should expect a return to the traffic levels registered during the housing bubble of the previous decade, U.S. home sales probably have bottomed and job growth has resumed. Each trend suggests incremental improvements in HD's traffic, revenue, and earnings, as the economic expansion progresses. I'd put a sell/stop loss at $16.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.

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