Four Risky Stocks for the Fourth: ANF, BBY, DWA, NWS


Independence Day picksIt's the Fourth of July. Time to declare your independence from fear. Specifically, the fear of holding risk in your portfolio. Ergo, I list four stocks here that investors should perhaps keep on a watch list. The choice is yours, but maybe you might find something of interest in these four.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): This stock is most definitely a risk, make no mistake about it. Being a retailer based on fashion, how can it not be in the current climate? Yet, back in May, the company's first-quarter numbers didn't seem so bad (although they didn't comprise the best data set I've ever seen, either). And the one-year chart shows that Friday's closing price of $31.11 is getting close to recent support levels.

Best Buy (BBY): The electronics chain didn't please Wall Street with its earnings release last month; expectations were missed, it's true. The company's shares, which had a price of $33.86 at the time of this writing, aren't too far away from the 52-week low of $31.25. Hey, as far as I'm concerned, Best Buy should bounce back once the bearish sentiment begins to exit the scene (whenever that may be). The stores have some serious brand equity, and today's consumer loves to shop for technologically-advanced gadgets. Investors may be worried about the retailer's prospects in the short-term, but longer-term, I imagine they will improve.

DreamWorks Animation (DWA): Ah, the cartoon studio behind Shrek, and arguably Disney's (DIS) biggest enemy. Oh, you better believe it's a risk. Toy Story 3 is overshadowing the ogre's latest outing, Shrek Forever After. But fear not, because the stock, which closed on Friday at $28.31, is closer to the 52-week low of $25.80 than to the 52-week high of $44.77. The conventional wisdom is to get in on a business like DreamWorks Animation at the low end of the range; as time goes on, the market should become excited for the next big project (as well as the eventual DVD release of the new Shrek). Again, though, we're talking risk here, so be prepared for this one to fall to the 52-week low if things go awry (in other words, have cash on hand to improve the cost basis if necessary). Please note I've been wrong on the stock previously.

News Corp. (NWS): Sure, this media conglomerate is almost screaming to you that it wants to go back to the 52-week low of $9.37. The current price of $13.48 would therefore imply significant downside risk. Then again, what about the other side of the coin? The 52-week high of $18.80 implies significant upside reward. News Corp. did well in its fiscal third quarter, but there was some question about the quality of the outlook for the fourth quarter. Hey, what can you do? The pullback in the shares might be an opportunity.

These aren't the riskiest stocks in the equities universe by any stretch. Nevertheless, considering the price action of the major indexes, you do have to possess a certain quantity of bravery to buy any one of them. Arguably, the best thing for individuals who don't like worrying is to keep all capital on the sidelines. Not everyone wants to stay out of the market, however; there are not a few out there who are willing to put cash on the line with the intent of buying low and selling high.

In the end, the decision about these stocks (or any others, for that matter) is yours to make. Perform your own due diligence. And have a happy holiday!

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change without notice.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-135.4012,755.06
NASDAQ-23.722,903.51
S&P 500-12.551,339.40

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 01:53 PM

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