The grain markets are weather related. Any change in the normal growing weather pattern sends the markets into turmoil.
The story of the day is Russia. The farm ministry said that Russia will harvest 85 million metric tons of grain, down 5 million tons from the previous forecast. Why is this news? Russia and Canada vie with the U.S. as the second largest world wheat exporter.
The catalyst has been the hot, dry weather in Russia and across Europe. Rainfall is about 60% to 80% of normal. Combine these factors, and you have a drought.
Just to give you an idea of the strength of the rally, September wheat futures rose from $4.57 per bushel to $5.14 in the past five days (each penny equals $50.00.)
At the moment the markets are moving on rumor and expectations of a smaller crop. It will take a few more weeks to determine exactly how much crop damage has been done.
So far this year, grain prices have trended lower on expectations of a larger U.S. crop. This latest dynamic could change this. Prices could move still higher or at least stabilize near the $5.00 per bushel level.
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