Puts Popular Ahead of State Street's Earnings Report


Financial services firm State Street Corporation (STT) is slated to take its turn in the earnings spotlight tomorrow morning. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting STT to report a second-quarter profit of 93 cents per share, down from $1.04 per share in the year-ago period. The company has a formidable history on the earnings front, having exceeded analysts' per-share profit expectations in each of the past four reporting periods.

However, options players are bracing for a potential post-earnings pullback. During the past 10 days, speculators on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 1.32 puts for every call on STT. This ratio ranks in the 81st percentile, indicating that traders are purchasing bearish bets over their bullish counterparts at a faster pace than usual.

But, considering the stock's technical woes, it's not exactly shocking that puts are gaining popularity. STT has shed more than 15% of its value year-to-date, and a recent rally attempt was soundly rejected by the equity's descending 50-day moving average. This closely watched trendline has highlighted STT's decline since mid-April.

In fact, after checking out the rest of the security's sentiment backdrop, it's somewhat surprising that the stock hasn't attracted more attention from the bears. Short interest accounts for just 1.2% of STT's float, pointing to a relatively slim stockpile of sideline cash.

Plus, Zacks reports that 14 out of 19 analysts maintain a strong buy or buy rating on the shares, compared to just five holds and zero sells. Meanwhile, Thomson Reuters pegs STT's average 12-month price target at $53.82 -- a lofty premium of about 46% to last Friday's close at $36.91.

Ahead of STT's earnings report, this relatively upbeat attitude raises a few red flags, from a contrarian perspective. If the company manages to report another better-than-expected quarter, there's just a little bit of room for the shares to benefit from a capitulation by bearish bettors. Unfortunately, any post-earnings rally could be halted by multiple layers of trendline resistance.

On the other hand, if STT's quarterly report comes as a disappointment, there's ample opportunity for analysts to hit the stock with downgrades and price-target cuts. If the bulls begin to abandon ship, it could easily exacerbate STT's technical troubles.

Elizabeth Harrow is a senior equities analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 04:45 PM

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