Last week, my colleague Elizabeth Harrow gave a summary of Coinstar's (CSTR) latest earnings report, as well as the stock's current technical characteristics. This is a tough situation to consider. The company, which owns the DVD-rental kiosk system known as Redbox and competes with Blockbuster and Netflix (NFLX), had been a great performer for much of the last year. Then, it started to slide at the beginning of June. I've been bullish on the stock, although I have acknowledged the significant quantity of risk attached to it. After reading through the Q2 numbers, I wasn't completely displeased by them.
However, it doesn't really matter what I think, does it? From the point of view of initiating a trade, it only matters what the market thinks. I've been saying that pullbacks might make the company a possible buy, but that story may have changed.
Honestly, I just didn't like last week's price action. This past Friday, shares of Coinstar dropped over 5% on high volume. It doesn't look good. Although one might believe in the business on a fundamental basis, the chart may be telling us something.
I would not short this stock; doing so could very well be a big mistake. Nevertheless, I can't see going long the equity just yet.
You must make your own decision, of course, but if I held a profit in Coinstar right now, I would realize it and check in on the company at a later point in time. I feel the risk, on a technical basis, has gotten too high.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change without notice.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-04-2010 @ 4:58PM
Josh Warner-Burke said...
Granted this is a growth stock and the reaction to earnings was a bit jarring. But after the earnings related drop, I think a good opportunity here. I agree with this ProofTrader blogger who believes the transition to streaming will be slower than many think:
http://prooftrader.com/symbol/CSTR/599/Redbox-still-on-the-way-up-not-down-regardless-of-streaming