The Apple (AAPL) iPhone and iPad are all the rage and the demand exceeds the supply. The supply produced in China is where we are sending a lot of our money -- stimulus money.Ongoing discussions about whether the federal government should, or should not start priming the economic pump again with a another $750 billion got me thinking: what happened to the first stimulus money?
The money did not evaporate. It did not go up in smoke, and contrary to popular belief, Congress did not eat it, try as they might. If it still exists then why would the economy need more -- and the debt burden that goes with it?
The money exists but it is not circulating. It is accumulating in four major reservoirs. Sadly, the first place a good deal of capital has gone is overseas. As money made its way to institutions and individuals, a lot of it was quickly spent on goods not produced in the United States.
This leads to the second depository of stimulus money, corporate coffers. As money moves through the economy billions of dollars are being filtered out by companies like Apple with its $48 billion "cushion". Cisco Systems (CSCO), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google Inc. (GOOG) are doing the same thing. There is a $1.6 trillion sitting on the sidelines. This is not to say they did not earn it; they did. But that does not alleviate the repercussions of this vast amount of capital in a holding pattern.
Perhaps these companies fear a double dip recession and another bout with illiquid markets? We are our own worst enemy. By sending money overseas and hoarding it here, might we not be contributing to a double dip? Forcing the Federal Reserves' hand to contemplate an additional stimulus/debt round is something we can ill afford.
The $1.6 trillion does not count financial institutions, which are the the third black hole. In this case, the banks are advantaged by the low interest rates as well, so they can recapitalize. The banks are actually being required to retain more capital as reserve limits have been rightfully raised to withstand the stress of a continued level of high loan defaults.
Finally, the public has increased its savings rate, paying down debt, and hopefully replacing debt with equity.
We are not likely to stem the tide of sending money over seas and we should not push banks and individuals to resume leveraging their future again. That takes care of three of the four money sponges drying things up. That leaves corporate America "holding the bag" for the rest of us. Apple would not be in any danger if they only had a $24 billion bankroll, or even $12 billion. One could argue they might be at greater risk as the money piles up.
If Warren Buffett builds capital reserves at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -- BRK.B) you can be sure he is planning his next move, and his track record of allocating resources is astonishing. The same cannot be said for most everyone else. It would be far better for the economy if corporate America resumed consuming, or at least gainfully reallocating resources then fretting weekly because overtapped consumers have not started spending again.
If Washington and Wall Street are worrying about a weak economy, then they should get together and discuss what productive alternatives stagnant corporate capital could be used for to improve the nations economy. If there is another stimulus package it most assuredly will go to the same four places I have already outlined, and may do little to help in the short run while burying us in debt and higher taxes in the long run.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: He owns shares of BRK.B..
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
8-09-2010 @ 9:31PM
william lindblad said...
Good observation.
Little doubt that a great deal of money is "sitting" and doing nothing to improve the economy. Fear? Next move? They are very good questions, but none of us have the answer.
You question Jobs and Apple and the supposition of some kind of interaction with Disney as a reason for sitting on a large reserve. It's reasonable, but the one with the cash would be in a better position if further economic
deterioration takes place. Nothing wrong with bargain hunting and with the right circumstances, come out with money left over.
To use an analogy - what we all are looking at is a dazed boxer that was saved by the bell and is now in his corner trying to recover. That's corporate America. Do they come out fighting, or do they fall down and concede. Whatever actions occur will determine the months ahead.
Of course, they could just remain in their corner as this does not have a two minute time out.
Personally, I do not see any abyss but a market correction is in the cards. Wall St. has to balance optimism with reality and things are just not that good. That is also a problem as wide swings do little to instill confidence. Yes, I think there will be a good sized one - soon.
8-09-2010 @ 10:08PM
Peter Van Schaik said...
Sure, there will be more stimulus money. But you nailed the problem, Sheldon: All the stimulus money in the world will not benefit any economy if it isn't spent on real goods and services. Furthermore, if we want the most bang for the proverbial buck, the stimulus money must be spent on goods and services produced in the United States by companies owned, as much as possible, by US citizens. We may end up paying a bit more but at least we will be stimulating our economy to the maximum. This is not breaking news. I've been preaching this sermon for a few years now. And, yes, I'm fully aware of all the arguments concerning absolute and comparative advantages. But the absolute lowest price for goods and services mean very little for those who are unemployed and unable to purchase the goods and services no matter how inexpensive they are.
The simple fact: If we want to put unemployed United States citizens back to work, employed US citizens need to buy the goods and services their neighbors produce. Or we can lower our standard of living and quit importing so many less expensive goods while we start exporting more of our production. I'm not about to hold my breath waiting for THAT to happen.
The stock market will price in this economic reality soon and the March 2009 lows will give way to a more reasonable valuation. In the meantime, it is still a good time to sell your stocks. http://sites.google.com/site/jpetervanschaik/