Dollar Could Hit 15-Year Low Against the Yen, Analyst Says


dollarThe U.S. dollar could drop below 84 yen, according to Gaitame.com Research Institute. Gaitame uses a technical tool called the Bollinger Band, named after its founder John Bollinger. Bollinger bands predict 95% of a security's movement using moving averages and standard deviations. The bands show the dollar bouncing off the lower band six times in the past four weeks. This suggests a strong downward trend.

Traders are watching the 84.50 yen level. If it is broken, the next stop is the 84.00 yen level. The dollar has not breached the 84.00 level since 1995. If the dollar breaches the 84.00 yen level, the next stop is 83.00.

Technical traders use these key points in their trading. Just a few weeks ago, technical traders were forecasting parity for the euro and dollar. Then too many people believed the rumors and went short. That was the perfect time for a short squeeze. The euro shot up from about the $1.18 level to the $1.30 mark.

One of the flaws of technical trading is that everyone is looking at the same data. Traders who read charts follow the signals. The one thing to be wary of are the big players who, just for fun, love to squeeze the technical guys. This same move happened in the stock market when a group of longs drove the market up to its present level. They have been squeezing the shorts for several weeks now. This happens frequently when the market doesn't have a clear trend up or down. Unless you are nimble, you could get chopped up pretty badly and lose piles of money.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 08:06 AM

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