The most common question I get from friends, family, business associates and, well, everyone is -- Do you expect a double-dip recession? My answer is an unequivocal "No!"This does not mean that I think we are going to experience a dramatic improvement in the economy. We are not. Many of my colleagues seem to oppose my view, so it is not without some trepidation that I take this stand. However, I see the glass half full. My view is that others are overly influenced by "group-think" and the calls of doom.
I do think that we are currently adrift in uncharted waters and we may have a faulty rudder, too. The biggest fear I have is that everyone jabbering about another deep recession may actually cause one.
The following supports why I feel, from what we know, that we are not destined for a double-dip recession:
Starting with the collapse of our largest bank, Citigoup Inc. (C), our largest insurance company American International Group (AIG), and our largest automobile company General Motors, all three have sold off assets, improved balance sheets, reorganized management and re-entered positive earnings territory. The disastrous business practices that led to the great recession are not going to topple them again soon because their business have no resemblance to the ones that collapsed, nor to the underlying reasons that paved that road to failure. In all three cases, it took mountains of federal government cash to sustain them to this point. Now it looks like the Treasury will make a profit.
Three major banks, Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), are going forward with the lowest interest rates and as a result highest margins they have experienced in memory. The collapse of the housing market and the continuing level of defaults was bad, and remains bad, but here is the important thing to remember: they cannot make the same types of loans that they made leading up to our economic peril. Furthermore, with each passing day they have a smaller number of bad loans and an increasing number of stronger loans.
The loan mix is not fantastic but it is greatly improved, and continues to improve. The major banks have also consolidated, while hundreds of smaller banks have closed. Employee wages and benefits are flat, cash reserves are much higher, and risk has been trimmed.
A double dip recession implies that we will suffer from another collapse somewhere. That somewhere will not be the banks. They have an ideal situation. Lower interest rates, wages, competition, and even lower energy costs, while having more cash with less overhead and a better loan mix.
If the banks are not going down, is the auto industry suspect? No, the only suspects here are when GM has its Initial Public Offering again, which is something Wall Street, Washington and even the public will be gleaming over. The auto industry has rebounded and most companies have shown a profit in recent quarters and broadcast cautious optimism. Ford Motors (F) has sustained itself and has a strong model lineup. They were able to to this without government assistance. This is another streamlined industry with stronger balance sheets, leadership, and product lines.
It has been reported that August auto sales are the lowest since 1982. Not a good sign, but it is always darkest before the dawn. A smaller streamlined industry is capable of sustaining itself on less business.
Where do the boogieman lie? That answer seems clear. It starts with housing and unemployment and slams into raging national debt. These are no small matters. But let's look at these more closely. When you compare 9.5% unemployment levels to 4.5%, of course the shift is dramatic. But 4.5% was totally unrealistic and founded on businesses and consumers piling debt upon debt.
Business has recapitalized and consumers have become savers. That is a good thing. Unemployment levels will improve, not worsen. It is discouraging that people are out of work and that improvement is moving at a snail's pace, but I have heard nobody talking about it getting worse; only a tortuously slow path to recovery. It is true folks are having are hard time. However, when consumers trim debt that puts them in a better situation going forward, and people with reduced leverage are a far larger number than that of the unemployed.
The national debt is large and growing, yet deflation is more of a threat right now. The repercussions of this debt seem a few years off. The odd thing about inflation is that when it does come, it hurts the currency and our buying power but reduces the impact of the debt. Washington loves the idea of paying back its debt with a devalued currency -- unfortunately -- but historically true.
If unemployment is stagnant, not worse and the debt crises is held in abeyance there still is housing to worry about. Well, yesterday the Case-Shiller report indicated that housing prices were up.
I think that every day the threat of a double dip recession is reduced. J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. "It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate," Morgan reportedly replied. I could not agree more. There will be continued ambiguity in the economy, and this will feed the fires of discontent and leave the stock market rattled, but I do not see a collapse.
Here are a few more very positive signs. Companies are buying back shares, merger and acquisitions are on the rise and corporate America is flush with cash. The board rooms would not be on a buying binge if they did not think we were on the cusp of recovery and this might be their last chance to find a bargain.
The market is full of bargains if you look closely. For a few ideas check out Chasing Value: Telefonica, a Work of Art and Chasing Value: Four Great Stocks -- Gov't Fears Savings Spiraling Out of Control
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture and planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value™ and Serious Money. Disclosure: He owns shares or options in BAC, C, TEF and WFC.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-01-2010 @ 3:30PM
Iridium said...
Sheldon the common people do not have any money. They do have access to credit right now but at a substantial cost compared to the rates the banks are getting. DO PEOPLE NOT MATTER??? People do not want to take on any more debt because they can't pay for the debt they have right now. People that have jobs and can afford to buy a new car do not want to because they have realized that they don't need a new car every 3 years. The entire economy of the past 30 years has been built on an expansion of the money supply that didn't really exist.
If it took mountains of federal dollars to prop up the economy is it really in good shape? Isn't that just a further expansion of the money supply that really doesn't exist? If that is the case why don't we just allow every ATM to dispense an unlimited amount of money to anyone that walks by? Just think about all the things people would buy if they didn't have to worry about money!!!!
Wait a second, we did do that but just for banks and Wall Street firms. They have access to a nearly free endless money supply. In fact they can borrow money and buy treasuries that pay them profit off of borrowed money. WHAT A GREAT SYSTEM!!!
By all accounts the majority of the country is still in a deep recession. We never got out of the Great Recession. Only Wall Street and those with connections to federal bailouts got out. Corporations used accounting tricks to hide debt and the CDS market has swelled past the entire GDP of planet Earth. But nobody seems to care.
The US treasury flooded the market with $14 trillion in cash but somehow this hasn't been recorded as debt. Essentially free money was given to banks to prop up the stock market and in the process crate the largest equity bubble in history.
Analysts are saying the P/E ratios don't mater anymore and debt doesn't really matter. They are even saying that employment doesn't really matter since we can just increase productivity out of a smaller workforce. They are only saying that in an attempt to hide how insane the market has become over the past two years. I mean really a P/E ratio of 100/1 isn't overvaluing a company???
Public corporation CEO's are legally bound to increase the value of their company at any cost. Isn't that notion just a little insane? Can nobody see where that thinking eventually leads?
9-01-2010 @ 3:52PM
Sheldon L said...
Good comments Iridium, thanks for taking the time.
The topic is double dip or not, and I say not. I do not believe the market will tank and I see nothing in your treatise to contradict this.
I agree with you that there will be hardship for a long time and many of the people that got us into this mess have dodged a bullet. However, enterprise leads to jobs not jobs to enterprise so employment is always a lagging indicator.
I also agree (as you probably are well aware) that we have propped up the economy for a long time and will be paying for it for a long time.
I would not venture into stocks with 100:1 P/E's but there are plenty paying very high and sustainable yields at low P/E ratio's.
As far as CEO's "legally bound" increase the value of their company "at any cost", this is a misstatement. The have a fiduciary responsibility to make every effort, but not at all costs. They have many responsibilities and this is but one.
9-01-2010 @ 6:38PM
Dan Barnett said...
Just for the record, aren't we always "adrift in uncharted waters"? We know how the Great Depression worked out in the end, but who knew from day-to-day in the '30s what the outcome would be.
We agree that "techinical analysis" can not predict the future movement of any stock. There is no magic way to know the future.
So we drift, using past practice as a guide but not certain that past results mean anything beyond missed opportunities. I am dubious when anyone tells me that the past is irrelevant, as in P/E figures, but things do change and we are too close to the events to see the broad patterns.
I try to follow Mel Brooks' advice, "Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst." And laugh.
9-02-2010 @ 7:20PM
mruyog said...
Recovery is slow because our business leaders did not see it wise to modernize American factories and went abroad to countries like China & India, looking for better quarterly profits and selling our expertise and, also, to enable them to get fatter bonuses. The executives' greed worked for them and not for the American workers. Unfortunately, America being the most consuming country in the world, this greed brought huge trade deficits and, also, the budget deficits as the tax receipts of the government shrank relatively. Thus, the double-dip recession, true or not, is expressive of loss of confidence and agony of the main street. The fact is that the main street's confidence in our ability to recoup as a country is badly eroded. Thanks to greedy American executives and reelection-hungry politicians. Double-dip recession or not, we are not going to see the prosperity we enjoyed in the past, unless we change our ways! Obamas,living in the luxury of the White House, are not able to see that!
9-05-2010 @ 10:54AM
Guillermina said...
how can we be in a double dip, when we're still in the single dip? the president has played with the stock market manipulating it, to make it look better while he saboutaged the BP oil rig. November can't come soon enough, when we can finally impeach this clown and he WILL show a birth certificate, when the GOP takes back the house and senate.
9-05-2010 @ 4:16PM
Sheldon L said...
Mr. G,
The clearest example of prejudice is exemplified when one fabricates information to make a point and goes as far as to do so with utter nonsense.
Only ten days prior to the BP fiasco in the Gulf, the president announced a policy to extend coastal oil leases adding hundreds of thousands of acres to potential new drilling sites. Nothing could have been worse for the administration and the oil companies then the BP blow-up.