If in July, you took some profits off the table at $86 with Colgate-Palmolive (CL) first discussed here on April 13, 2009 at a price of $58.49, that proved to be prudent CL retreated about 15% since hitting $86. That said, Colgate now appears to have put in a bottom at/near $73 -- at decent time to scoop-up some shares if you missed the aforementioned entry price.
Consumer products giant Colgate-Palmolive will likely post a 6-9% revenue increase in 2010, followed by a 5-7% increase in 2011, with all segments reporting higher revenue. Lean, experienced Colgate weathered the recession in good shape. Colgate, an assertive-defensive, stayed one step ahead of the downturn -- closing about one-third of its factories, trimming excess marketing spending, and focusing on products in stronger-growth markets.
Another plus: CL's footprint provides geographic revenue diversification -- the company operates in more than 200 countries.
The Thomson Reuters First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for CL are $4.79 to $5.08.
Technically, Colgate's shares have tested a $73 low three times in the past two months and held support -- a bullish sign.
2011 Outlook: I view Colgate as a long-term play, but if you're looking to sell CL within the year, it's probably best to take your profits after it rises to $83-85, if it fails to rise above $86.
Stock Analysis: I consider Colgate Palmolive to be a moderate-risk stock. If an investor has already purchased the company's shares, I'd hold them. If not, I'd consider buying a 25% position in CL now. I'd put a sell/stop loss at: $59.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks, but does own shares in two Pimco Bond Funds: PHDAX and PYMAX.
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