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If you are looking for good news, here it is: the ADP jobs report for January shows an increase of 187,000, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Add to that the ISM manufacturing sector report, which shows the highest reading in 38 years! However, High Frequency Economics (HFE) notes that the index shows the rate of change, not the number of actual jobs created. Still HFE says that the ISM index would show 400,000 new jobs per month. On the weak side, the report does not show a pick up in jobs in the all important housing sector. Also, the ADP report has overshot the numbers for the past two months. In November ADP reported 297.000 jobs added. In December they reported 113,00 more jobs. The official numbers came in much lower.
Here's another bit of confusing data. HFE also states that the National Federation of Independent Business survey predicts 200,000 jobs lost per month. Let's keep in mind that small business is the engine that drives job growth.
These disparate numbers are making it difficult to make sense of the overall employment picture. The call for this month's report is for 150,000 new jobs.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-02-2011 @ 3:58PM
Iridium said...
When someone loses a job that makes $55k a year and then exhausts his unemployment and is forced to take a job that pays $18k a year, that is counted as a new job. Although at that rate it would take three new jobs to equal the one old job.
Another problem arises in that the one job that paid $55k probably gave the guy enough extra money to purchase goods and a fairly reasonable clip. His new $18k job probably doesn't pay him enough to meet any of his obligations so it is actually a net drain on the economy.
New jobs don't mean much unless they are good paying jobs. Sadly the majority of new job openings are barely work interviewing for unless you desperately need a job. Everyone I know who lost their job has had to take a pay cut to go back to work. Most people in the 20-30% range.
The numbers the so called analysts give us make Bernie Madoff's books look like those written by a patron saint. You know those great December housing numbers. The vast majority were contract transfers from banks to the federal government. They count as sales on the books. There were 28 real estate transactions in my town during December 19 of them were bank transfers and repossessions by the county. It counts as an executed contract even though it wasn't a sale to a member of the public buying a house for their own use.
The Wall Street scam is in high gear this time. Can anyone actually answer what the catalyst was for the meteoric rise other than free Fed money? We had the dotcom market high based on inflated valuations, the naught high based on inflated housing, and now the teen high that will be based on inflated dollars. Has there actually been any real economic growth for the past 25 years? I would have to say no.