Farmers whose families have been working the land for generations should be called in to advise new Wall Street traders every year. Because in farm life is the hardscrabble reality of boom-and-bust cycles. When prices went sky-high for wheat, corn and soybeans over the past years, you did not see growers spending their wealth on fast pickup trucks and fancy overalls; no, they kept telling reporters and economists that this wasn't going to last.

They were right. Wheat, which had hovered for years around $4 a bushel, had risen to $10 and is now flattening at $5; less than the current cost in fuel, seed and fertilizer to grow it. Farmers like Jimmy Wayne Kinder, who held back their wheat hoping to sell at the top of the market, are "kicking" themselves, and demonstrating that they, too, have an emotional connection to their holdings and have trouble letting go even in the face of overwhelming evidence that it's time to sell. As the prices fell, farmers waited for a rebound that never came.

Farmland was hot, too, with speculative buyers purchasing Midwest real estate for prices nearing $1,000 an acre, the record set in the 1970s. Now they're back around $500 and farmers are recalling lessons the traders never have time to learn: patience. If automakers, mortgage lenders, and Wall Street firms could learn this lesson; scrimping and saving in the down economies but not behaving like kings in the boom times; perhaps bailouts wouldn't be required.

It's interesting, too, that the article doesn't mention another reality of the farmers' market forces; as demand for conventionally-grown wheat, corn and soy drops, demand for organically- and sustainably-grown meats, produce and grains is rising. I plan to stand in line at 9 a.m. Sunday morning with my three boys for the chance at paying $60 for an heirloom turkey raised by a farmer I know; I've cut out breakfast cereal and alcohol from my budget so I can pay more at the farmer's market. Perhaps the American economy isn't collapsing, but returning back to a more sensible place; where friendly, interdependent, local, sustainable economies thrive and the global economy is a distant memory.

In my 20-year career as a financial writer, there have been a number of times when I've been truly shocked by news events. This year has had more than its share -- with Lehman's bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch's forced sale and Eliot Spitzer's prostitution scandal at the top of the list.

But in 2006, probably the biggest shock was when Enron founder Ken Lay died suddenly of a heart attack. He had been convicted just six weeks earlier of 11 counts of securities fraud and related charges. At age 64, he seemed destined to spend the rest of his life behind bars. His sentencing was set for Oct 23.

But Lay died on July 5 while vacationing at Snowmass, Colorado. George H. W. Bush was among the 1,200 guests at his funeral.

Lay's detractors howled in protest. Some thought he had somehow faked his death.

Others knew instantly that this meant his conviction wouldn't stand. And, indeed it was vacated a couple of months later. The law dictates that when someone dies before using up all their available appeals, the conviction doesn't count.

According to the letter of the law, Ken Lay 'got away' with his Enron crimes. But it took his death for that to happen. And his name certainly wasn't cleared. For most Americans, Ken Lay still stands for the worst in corporate corruption and greed.

The question on everybody's mind this week was when will the declines end? Was that the so much talked about capitulation? Have the stock markets bottomed?

Well, I can't answer that, and suffice it to say that many market analysts, fundamental and technical, are still quite gloomy. Pretty much all we can do in this time is hope for flat performance from a few select stocks, which perhaps would yield good returns once the economy starts rebounding and the bear market has completed its course.

Here are some picks and pans from the past week from BloggingStocks contributors:

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) -- Steven Halpern brought a recommendation from one of The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch advisors, Nikhil Hutheesing. In Hutheesing's words: "In the long run, smart investments today will lead to profits down the road. One of those companies, that I now think looks attractive, is the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry." Not only is RIMM's corporate business strong, it is also working on getting its phones to consumers. In addition, it has lots of cash and little to no long-term debt and great prospects, what the advisor is looking for in addition to value and fundamentals in this environment.

Lear Corp. (NYSE: LEA) is an auto parts supplier. Jamie Dlugosch bets on a bailout for the auto industry here. Today, Lear has a $110 million market capitalization, down from its peak within the last 52 weeks of $2.6 billion. If the bailout finally happens, owners of LEA could benefit greatly.

One of the ironies of public officialdom is that those elected officials who deal with budgets and tax policy rarely fully grasp the economic sea changes when they occur in the nation.

Whether it's due to habit, tunnel vision, groupthink, arrogance, ignorance, surrounding yourself with sycophantic staff, or some combination, congressional lawmakers are often the last to notice economic shifts that occur cyclically.

January 2009: A new era begins?

One of the key economic questions for investors and other stake holders is whether President-elect Barack Obama follows through with his campaign promise to be an eclectic, someone who tries a center-left policy here, deploys a center-right policy there because it works, and who does not implement typical party -- or partisan -- responses to problems; i.e., solutions from traditional sources of power in his party.

But an even more-telling economic question concerns what the Republicans will do. In November 2008, the Republican Party suddenly found out that it was very white, male, old, Protestant, and by-and-large economically and fiscally conservative. The aforementioned guarantees in the years ahead that they'll hold at least 20 or 25 Senate seats in a chamber of 100, and if they're not careful, about the same percentage of House seats. Meanwhile, the nation's electorate is increasingly nonwhite, female, younger, non-Protestant, and by-and-large economically and fiscally moderate, and in some cases, liberal/progressive.

There is no way to know why stocks go up or down every day. That's why I always find it somewhat silly when I see simple explanations for the movement in prices. The explanation offered for today's 494 point rise is that investors are celebrating the rumor that Timothy Geithner will be the next Treasury Secretary. How does the media know that investors are only celebrating Geithner's appointment and not that of Bill Richardson as Commerce Secretary?

Make no mistake. I agree with the choice of Geithner and made a case for him over former Harvard president, Lawrence Summers, and former Fed Chair Paul Volcker. My reasoning for Geithner was that he had excellent interpersonal skills and high energy coupled with an intimate familiarity with the current financial crisis. Unlike Summers, Geithner is highly unlikely to alienate people, and having picked Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State, President-elect Obama will have enough drama on his hands with both Clintons.

Geithner shares something with current Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson -- he graduated from Dartmouth. I hope that he makes far better use of that Ivy League education in the Treasury Secretary's role than his predecessor. While Geithner will be left with a huge mess that was not helped by his fellow Dartmouth alum, it will be difficult for him to do a worse job than Paulson. The world will be depending on him.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

It wasn't that long ago that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) changed the way we think about phones. The exact date that Apple's CEO, Steve Jobs, unleashed the sleek design on the world was January 9, 2007. Since that day, Apple stock has been on a tear, and has not closed under $85. That is, until yesterday when the stock finished the day at $80.49, as the stock has now lost all of its "iPhone premium."

In all fairness, the recent drop in stock price can be attributed more to the overall market meltdown than Apple weakness. The company last reported earnings on the 21st of October, and blew away analyst expectations by posting earnings per share of $1.26, versus estimates of only $1.11.

As for iPhone sales, sales so far have been great for the company, despite the fact that almost all of its rivals have been moving as quickly as possible to imitate the iPhone. The company stated that it had sold 6.9 million phones during last quarter, which was the first full quarter featuring the new 3G model. Based on that number, the company sold more iPhones last quarter than they had sold all together leading up to last quarter ... pretty amazing.

Except for the chosen ones -- CEOs and the like who have outrageous salary and benefit packages -- almost nobody has been able to escape the financial pain in the world today.

'My pal Warren,' Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A and BRK.B), who only draws a $100,000 salary, has watched his net worth diminished by billions of dollars as his stock has unraveled like everything else. I last read Buffett had a 31% stake in Berkshire so he understands his shareholders angst, even if he does not feel their pain. The stock has dropped from a 52-week high of $151,650 to yesterday's close of $77,500 for a loss of 49%.

Once again in quarterly SEC filings Berkshire's holdings were released and I could not help but wonder if this great holding company had not become one more giant index fund. There are a lot of quality names in the mix including:

• Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI)
• Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)
• ConocoPhillips (NYSE; COP)
• Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ)
• Kraft Foods'A' (: NYSE: KFT)
• Procter and Gamble (NYSE: PG)
• U.S. Bancorp (: NYSE: USB)
• Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC)

The above referenced stocks are all down with the market and there are still more that might be considered fallen angels or turn-around plays within Berkshire's holdings that include:

• American Express (NYSE: AXP)
• General Electric (NYSE: GE)
• Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS)
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
• Lowe's Cos (NYSE: LOW)

In addition to these publicly traded stocks Berkshire holdings include privately held Geico Insurance, See's Candies, Dairy Queen, Florsheim Shoes, and a multitude of others. Since so many stocks have been accumulated over the years I started to view BRK as a stock index and with that in mind did some comparisons between the Standard & Poors 500 and BRK.

The following is a three-year chart that illustrates that buying BRK instead of the index anytime in the last three years would have been beneficial by a 30% margin.

Today's late rally tied to breaking news of President-elect Obama's naming Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary for the next administration, but there was also an end of week bargain-buying hunt. Today was also options expiration. Whatever the real determination was, at least it was not yet another miserable day of relentless selling.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 8,046 (+6.5%)
Nasdaq: 1,384 (+5.2%)
S&P 500: 800 (+6.3%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) posted earnings at $0.35 EPS on revenue of $246 million. While other retailers are stinking up a storm, this compares to earnings of $0.30 EPS and revenue of $238 million last year. While sales did drop over 7% to $3.56 billion, analysts' estimates from Thomson Reuters (First Call) were only $0.34 EPS and $3.57 billion. Shares were up 21% at $11.62 right before the close.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) hired Sean Suchter, the former head of search operations at Yahoo! This could give them the brains and engine behind the search business without ever having to pay Yahoo! a dime. Shares were up 8% at $19.01 shortly before the close.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) managed a show of force when times are tough. The sporting apparel giant raised its quarterly dividend payout by 9% to $0.25. Shares were up over 6% at $46.41 right before the close.

USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) shares surged after disclosing that Warren Buffett and Faifax invested a combined $400 million into the home building products maker. This was on top of their investments in the company in the past. Shares were up 24% at $7.04 shortly before the close.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) rallied after the board of directors elected Mike Duke to replace Lee Scott as President and CEO of Wal-Mart, effective February 1, 2008. Shares were up almost 2% at $51.55 right before the close.

With credit markets remaining under stress, and with uncertainty growing regarding the status of megabank Citigroup (NYSE: C), the U.S. Congress may have to take more action to maintain financial system stability and prevent the U.S. economy from spiraling into a deeper recession, so says economist David H. Wang.

"The U.S. Congress may have to approve a 'TARP 2,'" Wang told BloggingStocks Friday. "Whether Congress does it as part of a fiscal stimulus package, or separately, it is clear we will need more money to purchase toxic assets, improve bank capitalization and allocate funds for home mortgage refinance programs, and other financial stabilization measures. At this stage of the crisis, the $700 billion TARP is not going to be enough, in my interpretation."

Bank sector stress remains

Wang said that if Citigroup, whose CEO Vikram Pandit said has adequate capital, for some reason cannot, when needed, find additional capital in the private sector, then "the Fed and or U.S. Treasury will step in, and take necessary measures to stabilize the bank," Wang said. If the U.S. Treasury is the primary funder, "that action, and other forthcoming, planned actions by the Treasury may use up a considerable amount of TARP funds, requiring a TARP 2."

2008 will be the year of "too big to fail."

That ubiquitous phrase has captured the attention of Wall Street, Main Street and Washington, but what exactly does it mean?

Clearly, the market is grappling with that question, and therein lies a very big problem for investors. The lack of clarity on this issue has been stunning. As a result, volatility is off the charts and stock values are plummeting.

This week has been bizarre, to say the least. Early in the week, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson let the markets and everyone else know that the original purpose of the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) was no longer a workable solution. In place of buying distressed assets, the Treasury is working to solidify the capital structure of the banking system. I won't criticize the government here, but the change of scope given the size and urgency of the original plan is a bit random.

It does not give comfort to the market.

Next we had the auto industry bailout hearings. With hats in hand, the leaders of the Big 3 automakers and their union bobo made an appearance in Washington. The highlight of the hearing had to be the acknowledgment that all arrived via private jet.

Talk about bad PR. It's like showing up to the soup kitchen in a limo. Good grief.

"Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) is in the sweet spot," says Steve Sjuggerud in Daily Wealth. He says, "It borrows money at a low interest rate and invests it at a higher rate -- and earns the 'spread'."

"The cost of money is historically low, and it's headed lower. Meanwhile, relative to the cost of money, the return on money is higher than it's ever been.

"The ultimate way trade on this historic discrepancy, for high-returns with very low risk, is through shares of companies like Annaly, which is now s now paying a 16% dividend.

"In the latest-reported quarter, the company borrowed money at 3.5%. (The credit markets have calmed down a bit, so its cost of borrowing should be even lower next quarter.)

"It invests the money in government-guaranteed bonds. You remember how the Treasury bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? It wiped out shareholders. But it explicitly guaranteed the bonds.

"In the latest-reported quarter, Annaly earned 5.6% interest on these risk-free bonds. Therefore, it earned a 2.1% spread. If the company uses seven times leverage, a 2.1% spread means a 14.7% return on its money.

"Analysts estimate the company will earn $2.50 per share next year. It pays out essentially all of its earnings in dividends. So that'll be a dividend yield of about 19%. This is ridiculous. An opportunity like this only appears during market turmoil like we're experiencing now.

"This is a historic moment. The difference between the cost of money and the return on money relative to that cost is at the most extreme levels I've seen in my career. Take advantage, and buy stocks like Annaly today."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

With Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) stock in the dumper, the CEO spot looking for a newcomer and musings about the future of the company underway, perhaps there is a small bright light for the internet pioneer. Wireless provider T-Mobile will use Yahoo!'s mobile search as the default on all its phones' mobile web browsers.

While that may not be the biggest victory one can think of, it does help. Mobile search and web browsing has been increasing in usage (though still small), and although T-Mobile USA is only the nation's fourth-largest mobile provider, just the fact that Yahoo!'s services will keep the largest wireless providers from using competitive mobile search products is a blessing for Yahoo!

Making money from mobile web search is another matter. Although Yahoo! and T-Mobile said they will share revenue from the new arrangement, the question is this: are any mobile search companies and wireless providers making any significant revenue from mobile search partnering? At this point in time, it's hard to see that just based on skimpy usage. While it may not be that way in the future. T-Mobile International, which replaced Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) mobile search with Yahoo!'s solution earlier in 2008 and Yahoo! also has its fingers in mobile search with the largest wireless provider in the U.S., AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T). Perhaps Yahoo!'s rebirth will be around mobile technology after all. It's just a question of when.

Well, it looks like Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) put me and my earnings preview to shame. The company delivered a great second quarter. The company, whose colleagues include Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), grew its bottom line by over 22% on a per-share basis. Heinz scored $0.87 per diluted share in profit, enough to wallop the analyst community's estimate of $0.76 per share.

Heinz made sure to hedge itself in terms of currency effects. That helped drive the quarter. The company's strong brand portfolio delivered, on an overall basis, almost 6% in organic sales growth. Management was able to leverage the equity of its product line to enact favorable pricing measures. And one of my favorite parts of an earnings report is the statement of cash flows. Cash from operations rose almost 10%, and operating free cash flow by the company's calculation (Heinz adds back disposals of capital property/equipment) increased almost 9%. It would, of course, be nice to see the growth rate of cash flow be closer to the growth rate of earnings, but at least cash generation is trending upward.

Gotta tell you, though, it looks like the market could care less about Heinz and its nifty numbers. As I write this, the stock is down 0.8%. I would have figured on a little more excitement considering that today was something of a calm day in the markets at large. Apparently Wall Street doesn't feel a lot of confidence concerning Heinz and its ability to keep up the good work. All I can say is that no stock should be considered defensive, even Heinz. We're playing by a different rule book, one that was written by a crazy lunatic. It seems like every stock is a gamble. If you have extreme patience and can tie up money for a long, long time, Heinz is not a bad bet at its current dividend yield. Otherwise, you may want to hoard cash.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

My view of the world is partly framed by my computer screen, so I found it nearly impossible to ignore the clamor this fall about new Web browsers. At the end of August Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) released a beta version of Internet Explorer 8, which was followed a couple days later by an online comic book that announced Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) launch of Chrome, for Windows only.

And who could ignore the buzz in October about Microsoft's SearchPerks, an incentive program with prizes for those willing to sift the Web via its search engine Live Search? Or the fact that yesterday Google announced a new way for users of its search engine to customize their results, ranking and annotating them?

I wondered why these big public companies considered browsers so important, why they had spent the money to update them and give them away for free over Labor Day weekend--and even to reward me to search online. So I rolled up my sleeves, downloaded, read some and talked to a stock analyst.

I was not the only one to notice some similarities in the two new browsers: Both offer private browsing (Web surfing without leaving any history) and crash recovery (so that only the specific tab involved in opening a faulty Web site fails not the whole browser application).

Yet each browser has innovations. As reporters and reviewers have noted about Internet Explorer 8, for example, Accelerators allow you to highlight a term to use it as a launch pad for such applications as mapping, translating and e-mailing. The Web Slices feature lets you plant a snippet of a favorite site atop your browser; you'll be alerted as it's updated.

Chrome sports what Google calls a "streamlined" look. The browser is designed as a giant box, with its features tucked neatly inside for you to pull out. Chrome can also showcase within your browser screen nine small views of your most-traveled Web sites. BusinessWeek points out that it's the "wizardry" under the hood that really matters and that enables this browser's applications to run fast.

These browser makeovers come, says Scott Kessler, senior director of information technology at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, as browsers and search engines have increasingly become linked. "Companies are ... appreciating the increasing relevance of the browser and search in terms of how they communicate with the world, users, customers," he says. "A lot of applications that formerly ran on computers or desktops now operate within the confines of the browser itself."

Bloomberg reports that President Elect Barack Obama's transition team is taking a hard look at the possibility of a prepackaged bankruptcy for the Detroit's troubled automakers.

In a prepackaged filing, companies like General Motors (NYSE: GM) would head to the bankruptcy court with agreements already worked out with the major constituencies: workers, suppliers and lenders. Going in with a plan could cut down on some of the fear and uncertainty surrounding the filing and cut down on the time it would take for the company to work its way through the courts.

It's good to see that Obama is taking a sane, realistic approach to an auto industry bailout. There has been concern that the new administration would be too generous in the terms -- and stones will fly if a GM workout is done with anything other than a bankruptcy filing. Bloomberg adds that "the president-elect earlier urged Congress to approve as much as $50 billion to save automakers, using the model of Chrysler's bailout in 1979."

Right: because that one worked so well that they're coming back 30 years later -- billions in excess compensation later. It's true that the Chrysler loan was paid back quickly, but it allowed the company to buy time and not really confront any of the long-term problems that have proven to be its undoing.

Hopefully Obama will listen to his more conservative advisors and push for the bankruptcy option. It's the only one that makes sense.