Carol Vinzant
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The return of Windows XP
It's only a stopgap measure, everyone knows. It's a temporary reprieve for XP. Just the same, netbooks are allowing XP, the operating system Microsoft tore from its loyal public last year, to make a comeback.
Last year I tried to get a new computer but was so badly abused by Vista I took it back and reformatted my old computer so I could avoid the demanding operating system.
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What are the signals for the market in 2009?
I almost was one of the people that put money back in the market at the end of the year. It's a new year, Obama is coming in, things will improve, I figured. But I held back. I don't like to make market decisions based solely on gut. And even then, my gut is of two minds and one of them says this recession is going to be the worst of my lifetime.
Some stats do point to an up year this year. We've been hearing a lot this week how the market goes up a lot after a fall. My friends at the always smart Stock Traders' Almanac use a measure of the first five trading days of the year. It was on this measure that I -- thankfully -- pulled back last January. If the first five days are up, the year will be generally be up, they've found. Sy Hirsch invented this measure as an improvement on his other early indicator, which says however January goes, so goes the market for the year.
For the last 36 times that the market has been up for those first five trading days in January, the market has been up for the whole year, they say. And they judge the indicator to have a 86% accuracy ratio. This year it's a little confusing: the Dow was down a little, the S&P was up a little (both under 1%) and the Nasdaq was up 2.5%. By that measure the rally that started in December will continue.
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Money winners of 2008: John Webber and the gold cup under the bed
This post is part of our feature on Money Winners of 2008. See all 20.
Whatever you do, don't tell my mom about John Webber. He's an English guy who had hung onto a cup that his junk dealer grandfather bought in the 1930s. One day he took it out from under the bed and decided to get it examined. It turns out to be made of gold, about 1,700 years old, and decorated with the face of a Roman god. He got $100,000 at auction.
The reason I don't want you to tell my mom about this guy is that this is exactly the scenario she thinks will happen with every mug she has ever bought at a garage sale, each "collectible" she keeps stashed in cabinets and even the old eight-track player that she cannot be persuaded is worthless. It's stories like Webber's that keep houses full of junk.
Also, Webber is now in his 70s. I don't know what his family or financial situation is. I'm sure he could use $100,000. Who couldn't? But I'm also pretty sure that the money would've made a bigger difference in his life if he had examined the cup when he was saving for a house, sending a kid to school, or starting a business.
Be sure to check out more Money Winners of 2008.
Money winners of 2008: Bill Ackman knew Fannie and Freddie were in trouble
This post is part of our feature on Money Winners of 2008. See all 20.
Bill Ackman, who manages the hedge fund Pershing Capital, was one of the first major investors to realize what poor shape Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) were in. He warned that the apparent back-up of the federal government wasn't going to do investors much good unless the company fell apart and had to be bailed out.
"It doesn't matter what the rating agencies say about their capitalization," Ackman told CNBC. "Implicit guarantees don't work in the market that we're in now." And he turned out to be right, of course. Ackman was shorting the debt of Fannie and Freddie.
While Ackman has had to take some heat from investors who blame him for profiting off Fannie and Freddie's collapse, some critics say he was a bloodsucker, others point to his keen analysis as the reason we should allow short selling: it's the only way to offer an incentive to investors not to believe the hype.
Continue reading Money winners of 2008: Bill Ackman knew Fannie and Freddie were in trouble
Money winners of 2008: Jeff Greene shorted subprime
This post is part of our feature on Money Winners of 2008. See all 20.
Lots of people thought real estate was overpriced. Many worried that banks were giving out mortgages too cheap. But what did you do about it? (Either to help the situation or to make money.) Jeff Greene, a real estate mogul in California, actually found a way to bet against the subprime mortgage folly. He made $450 million -- at least that was the count earlier this year.
Well, he didn't just think of it on his own. He basically took the idea that his friend, hedge fund manager John Paulson, had. Paulson thought that, as an individual, Greene wouldn't be able to do this complex a transaction. According to the Wall Street Journal he even used special software so investors in a hedge fund Paulson created just to exploit the subprime crisis couldn't pass on his strategy.
How Greene and Paulson made money involves two financial terms you've probably had to learn this year and never want to hear again. Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are the way mortgages are packaged and sold to investors in various slices of risk. Credit default swaps are the holders of those investments insured themselves -- by buying what was like unregulated insurance from one another. The credit default swaps are what got so many big companies in trouble -- they had to pay up on investments that went bad. So Paulson shorted CDOs and bought some credit default swaps.
Continue reading Money winners of 2008: Jeff Greene shorted subprime
Next stop for the Dow: Back to 1997 levels?
We've got about 450 points to go in 2003. The lowest it got that year was 7,524 in March. In the olden days, 450 points on the Dow would seem like an improbable swing, taking weeks or months. Not so in highly volatile 2008. A 450-point-drop would represent about a 5% drop -- a higher percentage loss than it was just a few months ago.
After that, 2002 has a low of 7,286. To get there the Dow would have to fall 711 points or 8.8% from Wednesday's close. Once that happens, though, the floor drops out. I'm not talking about technical support here, just psychological and historical support. See, if the Dow drops below 7,286, then we're heading into 1997 territory. That's the last time the Dow was below 7,286. If it breaches that threshold, we're heading back to October, 1997, when the Dow was at 7,161.
If that happens, it would mean that a lot of the gains of the late 90s have been wiped out. An entire decade lost. It may be just a number and just psychological, but it will certainly bum me out.
Makeover needed: McDonald's
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.
McDonald's has been hit by one serious critique after another of food safety and nutrition. The company has gone from being a family chain to something only those desperate to save time or money want. There have been half-hearted efforts to modernize, but what McDonald's really needs is a complete menu makeover.
I'm not talking about changing away from hamburgers in all their infinite variety, either. But over the last couple decades the eating public has gotten a lot more picky and worried about getting fat or sick from mad cow disease or some contaminant.
There have been many serious critiques of their impact on worldwide nutrition. Eric Schlosser described in Fast Food Nation how mega-producer McDonald's uses butchering assembly lines. In an era of food safety concern, "a single fast-food hamburger now contains meat from dozens or even hundreds of different cattle." Morgan Spurlock examined in the movie Supersize Me and a related book what happens when an individual -- or a whole country -- eats too much McDonald's.
Of course, McDonald's is facing pressure from the other side, too. We want cheap food. Especially in a recession, people love the dollar menu. But McDonald's has just got to improve the food.
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Makeover needed: Kmart and Sears
This post is part of a feature on companies and products that our bloggers think are in need of a makeover. See all 26.
When Kmart bought Sears to become Sears Holdings Corp (NASDAQ: SHLD) it seemed like a perfect match. Here were two retail titans of the 1970s who had completely missed the boat of modern big box retailers. Instead of trying to sell dowdy clothes, Sears could have concentrated on hardware and become Home Depot (NYSE: HD). Instead of selling dowdy everything with surly service, Kmart could have become Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).
Now what both stores need is a makeover. They need to become that bright, wide-aisle store that people love to shop at because they find neat things they didn't know they needed. Heck, if the Kmart in my neighborhood could just manage to keep its shelves stocked and not hire the surly, it would be a step up.
Both Kmart and Sears know they have trouble, but it just may be too late to make the changes. Kmart already went through bankruptcy and closed about 300 stores. They even came up with a bright, open store prototype with wide, well-lit aisles. But then they couldn't afford to really roll it out, says Shopping Centers Today. And many think they didn't close enough bad stores.
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Another record for ETF volume during the market volatility: Coincidence?
IndexUniverse says that ETFs now make up more than one-third of the U.S. market trading volume. They cite data from the National Stock Exchange , which says ETFs represented "a record 35% of all U.S. equity trading volume." That's up from 31% in August. Think about that: more than one-third of stock trades in America are for exchange traded funds.
Trim Tabs just came out with a report showing investors have been pulling money out of stock funds -- but throwing them into ETFs. Trim Tabs estimates investors took well over $40 billion out of all mutual funds in September, but meanwhile put about the same amount into ETFs. For the last 12 months, we've pulled $117 billion out of mutual funds and put $127 billion into ETFs.
For individual investors, the move makes sense. When the market is moving around like it has been, it's scary to be in a vehicle where you can only trade at the end of the day? But I can't imagine that all of that ETF volume isn't helping whip around the prices of the underlying shares.
Apple down more than market on mainly economic fears
As Brian White pointed out just last week, the stock's decline doesn't reflect its rising sales. Apple is getting a bigger share of the computer market.
The news on Apple Monday was that two analysts downgraded Apple due to worries that consumers -- now possibly going broke -- would not want to buy more Apple stuff. But Fortune's Philip Elmer DeWitt pointed out that one of the analysts (the one from Morgan Stanley) was one of the farthest off in predicting second quarter results.
CNBC noted that the worries are about the economy, not about anything Apple is doing wrong in itself. CNBC also questioned the analyst's interpretation of the survey he used as one reason for his Apple downgrade Monday. While indeed the survey shows people's intentions to buy Apple products has declined, the drop is quite small, which in this economic environment is really pretty positive.
It seems odd then that the stock getting hit harder than the market. It's not like Steve Jobs was into credit default swaps on sub-prime mortgages.
I sold on Friday: It was just luck
Normally, I'm the kind of person who thinks it's ridiculous when investors sell in a bear market. I didn't flinch when the dot-come bubble burst, or in the downturn after the terrorist attacks. But this time is different. In January, I pulled back my stock holdings to the low end of the asset allocation models. In the last couple weeks as the credit crunch unfurled while I was on vacation in Canada with my husband, I looked for an up day in the market to sell. On Friday, I cut our stock holdings in our regular and retirement accounts by about one-third.
On Friday afternoon I completely expected the market Monday to rise on word of a successful bailout. I warned my husband that there would certainly be a rally when the deal was approved and we would lose out. Boy, did that turn out not to be the case. It still may happen, but I really doubt it will completely erase Monday's loss.
Friday wasn't even my first choice for a sell date. As I said, we were traveling and the two other times I wanted to sell, we couldn't get a secure internet connection in time.
I still don't believe I've timed this perfectly. You just can't. If I had timed it perfectly I would've taken everything out of stocks last October. I could have saved around 20-30% of my holdings with that. And I'm absolutely certain that I won't jump back in at exactly the right time. I know the market lurches up in big jumps.
But I don't need to get it 100% right to save myself some money. When the market has been up lately, it's been on that crazy market wisdom that, 'Yeah! A bailout plan is coming!' But the big picture is still bad news: A bailout is needed and even it may not work.
Ads Gone Bad: Dog lovers not so fond of Verizon ad
This post is part of our Ads Gone Bad series. Share your thoughts and memories of this ad in the comments, and be sure to check out our other posts on marketing gone wrong.
Verizon made an ad this summer showing a guy scaling a junkyard fence to get his hands on an LG Dare phone, only to run into two junkyard dogs -- chained and snarling pit bulls. Pit bull lovers didn't like the casual depiction of animal neglect and cruelty. Animal rights groups have been working for a long time to stop people from chaining up dogs in their yard, abusing them and generally using them as a street weapon.
Verizon at first insisted that it would keep running the ad. Then concerned dog owners got the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals involved. PETA first tried to talk with Verizon and explain why the ad annoyed people: the dogs in the commercial had ears docked in a "fight crop" and pit bulls are the most abused breed of dogs.
Verizon refused to meet to discuss the situation, PETA says. So they put out an action alert. After Verizon got 7,000 e-mails from angry animal lovers, they took down the ad.
See other examples of Ads Gone Bad.
Ads Gone Bad: Snickers tries to make people snigger at gays
This post is part of our Ads Gone Bad series. Share your thoughts and memories of this ad in the comments, and be sure to check out our other posts on marketing gone wrong.
Mars Inc., has made not just one, but two ad campaigns for its popular Snickers bar seem to sneer at gays. Mars, one of the biggest privately held, family-owned companies, makes many of the world's most popular candies: Snickers, M&Ms, Twix, Starburst (along with Uncle Ben's Rice and pet food like Whiskas), but both of the ads gay rights groups found offensive were for the Snickers bar.
The first gay-themed Snickers ad made a big splash in Super Bowl XLI in 2007. Two mechanics get so wrapped up in eating the opposite ends of Snickers bar that their lips touch, prompting them to decide to "do something manly" lest they accidentally catch gayness -- so they pull their chest hair out.
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Is BT's offer to save Britain's red phone boxes for £500 fair?
This week BT PLC (formerly British Telecommunications PLC) (NYSE: BT) got lots of favorable coverage for relenting on its plan to remove thousands of iconic red phone boxes. BT announced in June it wanted to replace about one-third of its remaining 12,000 red phone boxes. The company has slowly been dispatching the boxes for years, prompting small local protests all along and a big outcry this summer. BT proposed a new deal: for £1 a town could keep the box, but with no working phone. A working phone would cost £500 ($900) a year. According to The Telecom, BT says £500 ($900) pounds is only half the annual cost of operating a red phone box. Really, $1,800 a year to maintain a pay phone? This July, residents in Cornwall were told their phone, which had been broken since June, wouldn't be fixed till late August. In protest, they strung up a bunch of tin cans on strings inside the booth.
Continue reading Is BT's offer to save Britain's red phone boxes for £500 fair?
Alternative Energy Holdings looks worse suing for defamation
The company explained that they had to hold this environmental group responsible because the "world wide reach of KTVB and KTVB.COM" was causing them "substantial damage." Calling the company "scammers" on KTVB was "aimed at harming the company's stock and defaming company officials bringing down the stock price," according to this Associated Press report in the Idaho Statesman.
I'm sure the company and locals have got into a fiery battle and that the local activists say lots of inflammatory things. But KTVB still doesn't have the power to sully Alternative Energy's name around the globe. But, do you know what does? An Associated Press story on this lawsuit.
No matter what the suit's outcome people will start wondering about the company. Waste News, the influential trade magazine of the waste disposal and energy industries, picked up the story. Idaho blogger Dan Yurman predicts the suit will just lead to more donations to Snake River Alliance and more scrutiny for the company.
You know what else could really hurt the stock price? A story like this one this month in TradingMarkets.com, which says "Last week, New York-based auditors Rotenberg & Co. reported the company had lost so much money that it raised "significant" doubt about its ability to continue. Company officials said nearly $5 million in losses would not stop it from moving forward." Wouldn't a story like that hurt the stock price more than the local Idaho TV news?



