Chris Johnson
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Thanksgiving's origins can be traced back to festivals meant to celebrate the harvest, which makes this bullish pick a natural play on the holiday.

The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) provides investors with a single-share alternative to investing in agricultural commodities. This was one of the hottest commodity-based ETFs in 2007 and 2008, as the "crowd" became increasingly interested in trading commodities as food prices skyrocketed. Lately, DBA has seen less activity as rising food prices have fallen off consumers' and investors' radar screens. However, in my view, that means it's the perfect time for a bullish play.

Thanksgiving is a time when friends and family gather at home for a feast, but the restaurant industry is hoping that a good number of folks dine out amid their holiday shopping activities.

Given the tentative economic recovery and double-digit unemployment rate, it's doubtful that they'll get their wish. That's why our bearish pick is Darden Restaurants (DRI) -- the operator of Red Lobster, Olive Garden, The Capital Grille and LongHorn Steakhouse, to name a few.

Voted MLB's best ballpark in 2008, Cleveland's Progressive Field boasts the name of Ohio-based Progressive Corp. (NYSE: PGR).

Drawn down by the financial crisis and credit freeze of 2008, Progressive fell to $10 per share. With it now trading around $16, I consider the stock a bullish candidate given its fundamental strength and the fact that 82% of the analyst community ranks this stock as a "hold." I think the analysts will wake up and start upgrading the stock, driving buyers back into the insurer.

The Pittsburgh Pirates may not be putting much on the field these days, but Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Inc. (NYSE: PNC) has jockeyed itself into a lead position in the financial recovery.

Since hitting its lows in March, at just below $20, PNC is up around 150% at its current price of near $50. I think that the stock will continue to lead the financials higher as its strong balance sheet and diversified revenue fuel a considerable rally.

Tetra Tech Inc. (NASDAQ: TTEK) provides consulting, engineering, construction, and technical services for resource management and infrastructure in the United States and internationally.

Clearly, the company has a stake in the proposed rebuilding of infrastructure that serves as part of the foundation of the latest economic stimulus packages.

Don't look now, but Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE) is up about 20% in the past month. People gotta eat, and, thanks to the recession, they're opting to eat at home more often.

Sara Lee reports earnings on August 12, and analysts expect earnings per share to be 5 cents less than a year ago. Last quarter, the company blew out the estimate by nearly 40%.

With sentiment mixed (only a third of analysts rate the shares a "buy"), another beat this quarter should keep the rally intact.

Buy SLE call options.

Next: Earnings Trade #4

With strong numbers from IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), along with some bullish comments from Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), look for positive results from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) when it reports earnings on August 18.

After seeing a dip earlier this month, the shares rebounded to hit a nine-month high. Sentiment is somewhat optimistic, but the stock should ride the bullish coattails of its competitors heading into earnings.

Buy HPQ call options.

Next: Earnings Trade #3

Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN) is a health care information technology provider, and that's a hot place to be right now.

The company reports on July 29, and earnings expectations are modest. In fact, only a third of covering analysts consider CERN a "buy," which leaves plenty of room for upgrades. The stock needs to break through potential resistance at $65, and earnings could give it that boost.

Buy CERN call options.

Next: Earnings Trade #2

Beating the Street at the earnings game is all about knowing the market's true expectations for a stock.

Knowing the market's expectations -- not just the analyst expectations -- for a stock will often provide the edge necessary to turn earnings season into a profit opportunity.

The more data and trends you can look at to determine not only what investors expect, but also how investors are positioning themselves for the expected move, the better.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) cheap?

The stock is trading in the mid-$60s, and it's almost doubled off its November low. But Amazon has reached far higher -- around $100 in October 2007, and $110 going back to 1999.

More importantly, AMZN is emerging as a retail leader in a lousy economy. Its Web traffic blew away the competition during the crucial holiday season, and its most-recent earnings number crushed expectations by 33%.

Put simply, Amazon.com has figured out how to grow the top and bottom lines in a terrible environment.

You can't talk about the Steelers and the stock market without thinking about U.S. Steel (NYSE: X).

The company's headquarters pierces the Pittsburgh skyline like the Steelers' defense pierces opposing offensive lines.

The U.S. steel industry has been dramatically affected by the global economic slowdown, as demand for autos, buildings and other steel-based products has declined rapidly.

As a result, X is now trading at $30 after hitting a high of almost $200 in June 2008. That's an 85% decline in seven months.

But X has been trying to root out a bottom around $25 for the past three months, and the long-term potential for X is becoming more positive.

And, for what it's worth, X gained 25% in the three months following the Steelers' last Super Bowl victory.

Chris Johnson is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.