Douglas S. Roberts
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The Fed Decision: It's All about Unemployment!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that quantitative easing will continue with the purchase of "$600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011."

There were no dissents against the FOMC statement.

The FOMC left its options open for the future and gave no specific guidance as to what actions it will take when QE2 ends.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: It's All about Unemployment!

The Fed Statement: No News, Just Confirmation of Policy

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee stated, again, that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that quantitative easing will continue with the "purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month." Thomas Hoenig again voted against the FOMC policy.

The FOMC left its options open for the future and gave no specific guidance as to what actions it will take when QE2 ends next year.

Continue reading The Fed Statement: No News, Just Confirmation of Policy

The Fed Decision: This is Not the End of Quantitative Easing!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that proceeds of Treasury securities will continue to be re-invested into additional Treasury securities.

There will also be additional quantitative easing. This will take the form of the purchase of an additional "$600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month," according to the Fed's statement. This was well within the $500 billion to $1 trillion range expected by many economists and strategists. Thus, the current program appears to be largely discounted by the market.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: This is Not the End of Quantitative Easing!

The Fed Decision: Where Is the Quantitative Easing?

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that proceeds of Treasury securities will be continue to be re-invested into additional Treasury securities. There was no additional mention of quantitative easing. Thomas Hoenig again dissented against the FOMC statement.

Although the FOMC mentioned the economic improvement continuing, it indicated increasing concern with high unemployment and depressed housing. It also mentioned that "bank lending has continued to contract."

Continue reading The Fed Decision: Where Is the Quantitative Easing?

The Fed Decision: Quantitative Easing Continues!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time and that proceeds from agency debt and agency mortgage–backed and Treasury securities will be re-invested into Treasury securities. Thomas Hoenig dissented against the FOMC statement and wants a tighter monetary policy.

The FOMC mentioned the economic improvement continuing albeit at a reduced pace but indicated that it was a mixed picture with high unemployment and depressed housing. It also mentioned that "bank lending has continued to contract."

Continue reading The Fed Decision: Quantitative Easing Continues!

The Fed Decision: Not the Time to Take Chances!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. Thomas Hoenig dissented against the FOMC statement and wants a much tighter monetary policy. He still remains the only voice against the statement but is said to favor a change in language, not an immediate rise in interest rates.

The FOMC mentioned continued economic improvement but indicated that it was a mixed picture with high unemployment and depressed housing. With unemployment expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future and little inflationary pressure from the CPI thus far, it is in no rush to tighten.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: Not the Time to Take Chances!

The Fed Decision: No More Excitement for the Week!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. The decision was not unanimous: it came with one dissenting vote.

The Fed has, in essence, decided to continue its current course of discontinuing quantitative easing with the elimination of the remaining special programs. Shrinking the Fed balance sheet is the next step. However, monetary policy in general will be loose with the rates staying low for an extended period of time.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: No More Excitement for the Week!

The Fed Decision: Maintaining an Extremely Delicate Balance!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. The decision was not unanimous with one dissenting vote.

The Fed has in essence decided to continue its current course of discontinuing quantitative easing and developing a plan that it can tighten monetary policy quite quickly if necessary. It also offered assurance that monetary policy will be loose with the rates staying low for an extended period of time.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: Maintaining an Extremely Delicate Balance!

The Stock Market and the Discount Rate Increase: Damage Control and Mixed Messages!

The Federal Reserve Board raised the discount rate by 0.25% after the close of the market Thursday, raised the minimum bid for the Term Auction Facility (TAF) by 0.25%, and shortened the maximum maturity for primary credit loans to overnight. The stock market has gone lower in reaction to this statement.

Several Fed officials have issued comments emphasizing that this is not the beginning of monetary tightening. However, uncertainty still hangs over the markets despite these statements.

Continue reading The Stock Market and the Discount Rate Increase: Damage Control and Mixed Messages!

The Fed Decision: The Real News Was Yesterday, Not Today!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. The decision was not unanimous with one dissenting vote.

The Fed continues to avoid any potential language which could disrupt the financial markets. Chairman Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, does not want to do anything to damage the current stabilization in the economy. This is particularly true with a controversial vote on the Chairman's confirmation coming soon.

Continue reading The Fed Decision: The Real News Was Yesterday, Not Today!

The Fed decision: Ending extraordinary measures but no monetary tightening

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement indicating again that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. The decision was unanimous.

The Fed continues to avoid any potential language which could disrupt the financial markets. Chairman Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, does not want to do anything to damage the current stabilization in the economy.

Continue reading The Fed decision: Ending extraordinary measures but no monetary tightening

The Fed decision: almost exactly as expected!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement almost exactly as expected. The language on interest rates is remaining low for an extended period of time remained largely unchanged, and the decision was unanimous.

As I have mentioned earlier, the Fed continues to avoid any potential language which could disrupt the financial markets. Any potentially controversial ideas seem to be reserved for speeches by the Chairman and other government officials.

Continue reading The Fed decision: almost exactly as expected!

The Fed decision: Attempting to be a non-event

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement today making its best attempt to be a non-event. The language on interest rates and quantitative easing remained largely unchanged, and the decision was unanimous.

This decision was designed to avoid any potential landmines which could disrupt the financial markets. The FOMC wanted this statement to be a non-event and seems to have largely succeeded.

Continue reading The Fed decision: Attempting to be a non-event

The Fed Beige Book: Maybe a bottom but where's the bounce?

The Federal Reserve released its latest beige book report detailing economic conditions across the country based upon observed evidence and conversations. The 12 Fed district banks "indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level."

It indicates that retail activity is weak with essentially no wage pressure. This may be good news on the inflation front but is negative for the employment situation. There was some improvement in healthcare and technology.

Continue reading The Fed Beige Book: Maybe a bottom but where's the bounce?

The Fed Decision: Avoiding Landmines!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its unanimous decision. The language on interest rates and quantitative easing remained unchanged. It indicated that inflation is not a problem despite a recent rise in oil prices and sees economic stabilization although continued weakness.

This decision was designed to avoid potential landmines which could disrupt the financial markets. In other words, the FOMC wanted this statement to be a non-event and seems to have largely succeeded.



Continue reading The Fed Decision: Avoiding Landmines!

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