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Yahoo Q1 analysis and live blog: Results are just good enough

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) has done what it needed to do: report a solid quarter in the high end of the range. The results were not a blow-out and certainly could have been higher. However, they should be enough to allow Yahoo to maintain its current Microsoft stance: no deal unless you raise price. Yahoo has not decided whether to pursue a Google outsourcing deal, but clearly it is still on the table.

LIVE CALL ANALYSIS:
Conference call starting... Goes from godawful Muzak to technical difficulties to interminable Safe Harbor disclosure. Please see notes below...

Revenue (Net) $1.35 billion, above consensus of $1.32 billion, upper end of range, but not a blow-out (ie, in line with Yahoo pre-release through NY Post this morning). Revenue could certainly have been stronger: Owned and operated properties decelerated again, to 18% (from 22% last quarter). Overall, revenue growth only accelerated from 8% to 9% Y/Y--not what one would call impressive (bar so low they could have fallen over it--as they appear to have)--but revenue ex-TAC up a better 14% (no acceleration). US Growth good. International horrible.

Adjusted EPS: $0.11, versus $0.09 consensus, in line with whispers. Operating income in line with guidance range (high end). EBITDA down year-over-year, especially in U.S. This will be called "investment," but it's ghastly.

Continue reading Yahoo Q1 analysis and live blog: Results are just good enough

Ebay Q1: Strong quarter, so-so outlook. Earnings call highlights.

Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): Revenue and EPS beat consensus, but outlook only in-line despite strong quarter. Core marketplace business showed good strength in listings, revenue, and GMV, but active users grew only 1% year over year. eBay needs to get this metric moving in the right direction soon, or the turnaround will not be sustainable. Business in UK and US hurt by weak economy. PayPal and Skype ahead of expectations. Outlook for Q2 revenue and EPS only in-line with consensus, which may worry investors. Full-year guidance slightly above consensus despite significant upside this quarter.

Key Metrics:

* Revenue: $2.19 billion, up 24%, well ahead of consensus and guidance of +16%).
* Adjusted EPS: $0.42, vs. $0.38 consensus. Revenue strong, sales and marketing lower than expected.
* eBay Marketplace Revenue: $1.48 billion, up 19%
* Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): $16.04 billion, up 12% (vs. 11% est)
* Active Users: 84mm, up 1%. THIS IS A DISAPPOINTMENT.
* Total listings: Approximately 647 million, up 10%
* PayPal: $582 million, up 32%
* Skype: $126 million, up from $113mm in Q4
* Outlook:
o June: Guidance in line with current consensus despite strong quarter.
o 2008: Guidance slightly ahead of current consensus: $8.7-$9.0 billion revenue vs. $8.79 consensus, $1.70-$1.75 EPS guidance vs. $1.68 consensus. This will likely spook some analysts.

Continue reading Ebay Q1: Strong quarter, so-so outlook. Earnings call highlights.

eBay Q1 preview: Growth in active users is key

Ebay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) reports earnings after the close. Conference call at 2PM Pacific, 5PM Eastern. Silicon Alley Insider will provide live analysis of the release and conference call after the close.

PREVIEW

eBay's stock has rallied off the low on stronger-than-expected listings growth. The company's recent fee changes to its core marketplace appear to have helped -- despite the screams of buyers -- but the proof will be in the actual sales figures (cutting listing fees should obviously stimulate more listings, but these may not be sustainable and may not have translated to conversions).

In our opinion, however, the most important metric for eBay proper will be Active Users. As the Wall Street Journal has noted, eBay's user growth has fallen to near zero. If the company is to turn its core business around, it has to find a way to draw more users (buyers and sellers) to the site. If it can't do this, the near-term listings growth is irrelevant.

Continue reading eBay Q1 preview: Growth in active users is key

Intel Q1 earnings call notes: "healthy and balanced"

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) slightly beat consensus: Q1 revenue was slightly ahead ($9.67 billion vs. $9.63 billion consensus). EPS was $0.25, but asset impairment, restructuring charges, and tax rate were higher than expected, so operating EPS was stronger than consensus. June revenue outlook in-line, full-year margin outlook slightly better than expected. Stock up strong in aftermarket.

Key points
  • Microprocessor and chipset businesses as expected. Microprocessor units lower sequentially, with ASP flat. * NAND revenue flat as significant price declines offset unit growth.
  • Gross margin: 53.8%, slightly below consensus of 54%.
  • Tax rate slightly higher than expected: 33.5% vs. 31%, and restructuring and asset-impairment charges $329 million vs. $100 million estimate. Operating income stronger than appears.
  • $2.5 billion share repurchase reduced share count
June revenue guidance: In line with consensus.


Continue reading Intel Q1 earnings call notes: "healthy and balanced"

Bumbling Yahoo board may already have cost shareholders billions

Is Yahoo's board doing a good job negotiating with Microsoft? Um, no. In fact, unless Yahoo had a good Q1, the board's stalling tactics will likely wind up costing shareholders billions.

In the days after Microsoft's bid for Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), it seemed clear that the deal would have cleared at $35 a share: Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) offered $31, Yahoo soft-countered (through the press) at $40. Press reports suggested that Yahoo was holding out for $35 or so, and, initially, it seemed that's where a deal would get done.

But intead of sitting down with Microsoft, Yahoo decided to play the waiting game, moving heaven and earth to find some alternative--any alternative--to selling out to Redmond. It also reportedly insisted that Microsoft raise its bid before the companies began to negotiate seriously. (We and others believed the bid increase would come at the 11th hour, after the companies began negotiating, as a way to make sure the deal was friendly and Yahoo could save face).

Continue reading Bumbling Yahoo board may already have cost shareholders billions

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-171.6311,543.55
NASDAQ-44.122,367.52
S&P 500-17.851,282.83

Last updated: August 30, 2008: 09:30 AM

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