Q. Gordon, since we last spoke, global markets have lost nearly half their value, and the Toronto Stock Exchange's Composite Index has dropped from more than 15,000 to just over 8,700. Have we hit bottom?

A. We are cautiously optimistic, but the recent trillion-dollar bond purchase plan announced by the Federal Reserve is great news for Canada. The flood of cash will likely spur inflation, drive down the value of the US dollar, and raise the price of commodities. It's no surprise that gold [rose] almost $60 an ounce and oil [got] back over $50 a barrel. The Canadian stock market is heavily weighted to commodities, so we are seeing a big lift. I still expect a lot of volatility in the coming months. However, the March 6th TSE low of 7,480 may turn out to have been the bottom for this cycle.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Has Canada turned the corner?

Global Q&A: Has Canada turned the corner? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Cynthia, your stated strategy is a fundamental, bottom-up approach, focusing on international companies. With that in mind, which are the three most important criteria that you use to determine whether a company's stock has the right stuff?

A. Our approach is both fundamental and quantitative, but we focus mainly on company-specific factors. Over the years we have consistently focused on four areas: valuation, growth, quality, and sentiment. For 2008, we were more active in looking at debt levels of companies and price momentum.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Using both fundamentals and momentum

Global Q&A: Using both fundamentals and momentum originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Heiko Böhmer, editor of Privatfinanz-Letter, who says it's not yet time to return to the German stock markets.

Q. The German economy entered a recession in the third quarter of 2008. Recent projections estimate that it will shrink by 2.25% this year, its worst performance since World War II. With that in mind, which, if any, sectors do you see actually growing in 2009?

A. It's not easy to find growing sectors in this tough economic environment. But I think that utilities and basic goods will show some growth this year. On the other hand, it will be very tough for the most important German sectors-cars and car suppliers.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Cautious on Germany and Europe

Global Q&A: Cautious on Germany and Europe originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Feb 2009 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with John Connor, manager of the Third Millennium Russia Fund, who thinks Russia will come back, but not until confidence is restored in the global markets.

Q. John, besides rapidly falling oil prices, what do you see as the primary factors that caused the more than 72% decline in Russian stocks in 2008?

A. Aside from a general flight to quality from emerging markets into the US dollar, the Russians had a couple of things that made it worse: Putin is tired and cranky and should retire, making mistakes with Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL), [putting] unfair pressure on BP (NYSE: BP), and of course, his overreaction with Georgia. The Georgians started the conflict and if Russia had any public relations sense, the country would have been out in front, telling its side of the story, including its peacekeeping role since the 1990s. Instead, investors bought Georgia's PR, causing them to dump Russian equities, including great companies like Lukoil (Frankfurt: LUK.F), which is now trading at a little more than three times earnings.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Don't rush into Russia just yet

Global Q&A: Don't rush into Russia just yet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Chris Gilchrist, editorial director of EveryInvestor, who tells investors how they should protect themselves, diversify, and position their portfolios for a rebound.

Q. Chris, in an interview at the recent World Money Show in London, you discussed the failure of the most widely used diversification strategies during the current global market declines. Why did it happen?

A. There are two major reasons. First, current portfolio planning techniques are based on portfolio theory, which systematically underestimates the frequency of extreme events as well as the size of potential losses. 'Standard deviation' is a false measure of risk because investment returns are not 'normally distributed'. Inadequate recognition of risk meant advisers recommended too high a proportion of capital be invested in equities.

Second, finance theorists hold that the excess annual return on equities above risk-free bonds should be no more than 2% to 3% as against a historical 5% to 7%, but this, too, is contrary to what we know about investors. It assumes investors are indifferent between loss and gain, when we know investors are about twice as risk-averse as they are gain-seeking and that this systematically skews their behavior.

Nevertheless, if you follow the theory, you end up putting more capital into risky assets in order to achieve your target rate of return. So, the failure arose not from diversification itself-though that, too, has been problematic-but from putting too high a proportion of assets into riskier assets.

Continue reading Global Q&A: A rebound-ready portfolio

Global Q&A: A rebound-ready portfolio originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Dec 2008 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. John, are we at the bottom yet (in equity markets) and what do you see for world markets in the next 12 months?

A. The US economy has substantially worsened in recent months; and the US and global economies are now in the early stages of a significant recession.

In early 2007, the problem was confined to the leveraged loan market as banks revealed their $300 billion in toxic loan commitments to US private equity deals. This was an isolated capital market problem, which had not materially impacted GDP. But in September 2008, the safety of money market funds came into question, seriously frightening individuals into taking cash from their bank accounts, putting all spending on hold and hoarding cash. Since then, GDP has been in serious decline.

Ironically, beginning in March 2008, the Federal Reserve's series of liquidity measures, designed to provide cash to troubled Wall Street institutions, made this situation worse. They sold Treasury bills simultaneously, withdrawing reserves from the banking system, resulting in less than a 1% annual rate of growth in bank reserves and the monetary base in the 12 months leading up to September 2008. Since the September crisis, both reserves and the monetary base have more than doubled, which will eventually solve the problem. But the Fed was very late to the party.

Continue reading Global Q&A: A rocky road, but profits ahead

Global Q&A: A rocky road, but profits ahead originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 04 Dec 2008 12:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Charles, global markets have really taken it on the chin recently, yet you have bravely launched two new funds, IVA Worldwide (IVWAX) and IVA International (IVIOX). Does that mean that you are near-term optimistic on the markets?

A. The October 1st launch date of our two new funds was somewhat coincidental. We realized this spring that the private funds IVA offered were not sufficient and that there was a considerable demand for mutual funds. It took us a few months to get the registration of these mutual funds effective. But, though we believe our strategy is resilient to downturns, we are thrilled to launch these two funds now that stocks have become so much more attractive than a year ago.

Q. Your funds are not constrained by any particular sector or capitalization concentration, as long as the investments are value-oriented. What is your definition of value and in which sectors and countries are you currently investing the funds' money?

Continue reading Global Q&A: Plenty to Choose From!

Global Q&A: Plenty to Choose From! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Daniel, during this period of global economic crisis have you been a steady buyer of equities in Artisan Global Value Fund (ARTGX)? If so, why and what have you been purchasing?

A. As almost all our stocks are falling further from their fair value targets, the hurdle for new investments keeps moving up. So, a good portion of our buying has been in existing holdings. For example, Bank of New York (NYSE: BK), a holding in Artisan Global Value Fund, has been extremely volatile. Not a traditional bank, BK makes most of its revenues and profits from capital markets, related fee income, and a significant money market business. BK has not been immune to the credit concerns of the markets, but its exposure to low quality commercial paper has thus far been manageable. We have taken advantage of these concerns to add to our position.

Purchases we made in the third quarter include Tyco Electronics (NYSE: TEL), a leading [Bermuda-based] manufacturer of electronic connectors used in everything from cell phones and computers to automobiles. This is an attractively valued business with high margins, attractive returns on capital, and good cash flow generation.

Continue reading Global Q&A: A long-term view

Global Q&A: A long-term view originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:46:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Pratik, the Indian stock market had incredible momentum, reaching 20,000+ at the beginning of this year, but has suffered substantially with the global economic crisis, and now is trading around the 10,000 mark. Where does it go from here?

A. Many sectors of the Indian market are currently being priced as if there is a systemic crisis in India. That is not the case at all. Indian banks are healthy, and domestic savings is north of 30+%, providing a stable and solid deposit base for banks.

Where the market goes from here is anyone's guess, but I'm seeing one of the best risk/reward scenarios I've ever seen. This is not across the board, but in select areas that are not included in the main indices.

I like those companies that serve a domestic market where the supply/demand dynamic is [favorable]. In this environment, taking a top-down sector approach may not be as good as taking a company-specific approach. Companies that have zero debt, solid balance sheets, and have lots of free cash flow are appealing. History has shown that [companies that] come out of periods like this with assets unimpaired will do really well.

Q. What indicators would tell investors it is time to get back into the Indian markets?

Continue reading Global Q&A: What's Next for India?

Global Q&A: What's Next for India? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Oct 2008 17:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Vahan, although you primarily recommend US equities, your newsletter also includes a few international picks, such as American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB) and Embraer (NYSE: ERJ). What factors made you choose these companies?

A. I do recommend foreign companies from time to time in the Forbes Growth Investor, but only if they trade on US exchanges and only if they show up at the top of my screens. I rely on a quantitative model that screens stocks based on the probability of out-performance over the next six to 18 months. I like AOB because it sells traditional Chinese plant-based pharmaceuticals in China. Demand is very strong for these natural products in that country. I like ERJ because it gives us exposure to Brazil, which has one the fastest growing economies in Latin America.

Q. Several of your recommendations are US-based multinationals, such as RPM (NYSE: RPM) and Amdocs (NYSE: DOX), both of whom do significant business around the world. How important was their international exposure to your selection, and why?

A: International exposure is not something I normally focus on. Besides, these days most mid- to large-sized companies have at least some international exposure. Because the global economic outlook is so uncertain at this time, I felt more comfortable with companies that have a diversified revenue stream.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Still a believer in growth

Global Q&A: Still a believer in growth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 22 Oct 2008 11:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. What is your outlook for Great Britain's economy in the next 12 months?

A. We are on the cusp of a recession, but we have yet to feel the real crunch from a retailing viewpoint. The forthcoming all-important Christmas trading period will give more of a guideline by [the middle or end of] January. There is as yet no real sign of confidence returning, which would suggest we are in for a long haul. Borrowings are at an all-time high and will probably double again next year. This may mean higher taxes as well as labor unrest which would be detrimental for the economy.

Lower oil prices do help and commodity prices are falling, and will start to be reflected in government statistics by early next year. Hence, economy fears are turning towards deflation rather than inflation

Q: So, at what point do you expect to see actual recession in the UK?

A: My guess is that Christmas festivities may distort the reality, but I am sure that by February 2009, we in the UK will be feeling the full weight of recession.

Continue reading Global Q&A: A rainy day in London

Global Q&A: A rainy day in London originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Oct 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Allan, how can investors protect themselves should the financial crisis in the US result in prolonged bear markets around the world?

A. Studies have shown the majority of returns from the stock market have been concentrated over a relatively few days, so it is important to have some exposure. My experience, though, has shown bear markets last longer than you think. Asset allocation is particularly important and I would increase cash from my bond allocation rather than from my stocks. Now is the time to buy really high-quality stocks at attractive prices, those that have sustainable advantages, or what Morningstar calls "moats."

Morningstar borrowed the concept of a moat from Warren Buffett. Just as a moat around a castle protected the castle from invaders, a company's moat protects the firm from competition. Moats can be generated from being the low-cost producer; having intangible assets, such as patents or other unique intellectual property; and high switching costs that make it uneconomical to change to another product or service. All of these improve a firm's ability to compete as well as earn returns above its cost of capital.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Investing During a Global Crisis

Global Q&A: Investing During a Global Crisis originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 03 Oct 2008 12:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with Christoph Scherbaum, editor of the German edition of Personal Finance, who says German investors are cautious, but optimistic about their market.

Q. Christoph, some experts predict the beginning of a prolonged slowdown that will push consumer price inflation in Germany to as low as 2% next June. What do you think?

A. Consumer prices are not really a problem. August inflation was less than 4% and is estimated at 3% until year-end. The delayed effects of rising commodity prices will have a steeper decline. In addition, second-round effects through higher wage developments are now more visible. Therefore, the European Central Bank-despite poor economic data-will wait for a reassessment of its inflation target for 2010 until the second half of 2009

Q. To what extent do you think the US's financial worries are extending to German financial institutions?

A. It's a difficult question, but we have no big problem with our banks. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck recently stated: "Although this financial crisis undoubtedly is the biggest economic risk for the German economy, I think the potential impact on us-after inquiries and interviews with the Bundesbank president-to be limited". He also reaffirmed the intent of a balanced federal budget in 2011.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany

Global Q&A: Guten Tag to Germany originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Q. Your Asia Focus Fund and China & Hong Kong Fund have stellar three- and five-year returns, but have not been immune from the recent global market slowdown. Many commentators have forecast the end of the China "bubble," cautioning that after the Olympics, China's fortunes may suffer. But you disagree, correct?

A. I believe China's growth prospects still look good in spite of the global slowdown. China's economy has benefited in the past from an export boom, and this will be hit by slowing demand from the US and Europe. But we should not forget that China has a substantial domestic economy which, although linked to external trade, does not depend on it exclusively. The Olympic Games caused production to slow as factories were closed to reduce pollution during the Games, but we now expect that to pick up.

China's prospects can still be heavily influenced by policy decisions which are backed up with significant reserves and budget surpluses. Since last year, the authorities have maintained a tightening bias as inflation rose to a peak of 8.7%. Now, [with inflation] at 6.3% in July and set to fall further, the government has shifted to a pro-growth bias. We expect to see some concrete announcements, which could include energy price adjustments to address the recent supply shortages of electricity and diesel fuel; tax boosts to support exporters; selected easing of bank lending controls, and slower currency appreciation against the US dollar.

Q. What is your near- and long-term forecast for the region?

Continue reading Global Q&A: A true believer in Asia

Global Q&A: A true believer in Asia originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Opportunity in the energy sell-off

Global Q&A: Opportunity in the energy sell-off originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Global Q&A: Battered emerging markets worth a look, consider Sohu or Gafisa

Global Q&A: Battered emerging markets worth a look, consider Sohu or Gafisa originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Aug 2008 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.