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Fly high with Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacific (PAC)

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (NYSE: PAC) owns a valuable 50-year concession to operate 12 airports in Mexico, mainly along the Pacific coast and in the central region of the country. This includes major markets like Guadalajara, Tijuana, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta.

The company makes money in two ways. One is by charging simple per passenger fees that are regulated by the government -- the more traffic that flows through PAC's airports, the more revenues it receives. In addition, the company manages some airport-related services, such as operating parking lots and leasing space to retail outlets.

When analyzing this stock, the key number to watch for is growth in traffic through its airports. The higher traffic is, the more PAC receives in take-off and landing fees. In addition, higher traffic benefits retailers at the airport, translating into the potential for higher sales.

PAC announced that its December passenger traffic was up a solid 11.1% over the same month one year ago. That growth was driven by a 16% surge in domestic air travel. Also helping traffic was the addition of another 20 routes by low-cost carriers (LCC) at PAC's airports; LCCs offer simple point-to-point air travel usually at a lower cost than traditional carriers.

The strong domestic traffic gains suggest that economic growth in Latin America has not yet been scuttled by weakness in the U.S. economy. And growth in the LCC segment should remain strong even if overall traffic growth slows since LCCs offer the cheapest ticket prices.

Trading at 17 times 2008 earnings and with a growth rate of 22%, PAC represents a cheap way to play continued strong growth in Latin America.

If you are interested in more analysis from Paul Tracy, you can find it at StreetAuthority.com

Paul Tracy owns shares of Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacific (PAC)

Pepsi hasn't lost its fizz

We all know the soft drink giant owns popular brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew and Gatorade, the perfect complement to a snack food portfolio that includes Frito Lay, Ruffles and Doritos. However, you may not realize what those brands mean in dollars and cents.

Over the past year, PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) has raked in $37 billion in sales. And powerful economies of scale have helped margins remain strong (despite higher commodity costs), meaning a good chunk of incremental sales growth from fast-growing foreign markets has flowed through to the bottom line. In fact, the company currently generates more than $1 billion in free cash flow per quarter.

Much of that cash is handed over to shareholders. The firm's streak of uninterrupted dividend increases is not measured in years, but decades.

Pepsi has continued to prosper, particularly overseas where revenue and operating income both jumped around 20% last quarter. Meanwhile, the shares have been marching higher as well, climbing nearly 20% to reach Monday's close of $77.37 -- not far from my $80 fair value estimate.

Continue reading Pepsi hasn't lost its fizz

Berkshire Hathway bets on CarMax

Shares in Carmax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) soared nearly +16% in the past month, thanks in part to a regulatory filing disclosing the fact that Berkshire Hathaway has taken a 6.4% stake in the used-car retailer. The shares were purchased during the months of July, August and September. Although CarMax has since retreated from the highs as a result of the sell off, this presents a good buying opportunity.

Berkshire Hathaway is the insurance and investing conglomerate controlled by billionaire investor Warren Buffett. Buffett is perhaps the most respected investor in history; his moves are widely followed by Wall Street. It's impossible to know for sure if Berkshire's stake is the result of Buffett's own buying or that of one of Berkshire's subsidiary companies, but either way it's a vote of confidence for CarMax.

KMX has been sliding in recent months due to fears that a consumer slump would impact sales of used cars. But we continue to believe those concerns are overblown. The company offers a unique shopping experience that is unrivaled by traditional used-car dealerships -- the firm's superstores are well-stocked, offer haggle-free pricing, and provide painless trade-ins and vehicle financing.

The used car business is highly fragmented in the U.S., so CarMax has room to grow simply by taking market share from smaller operators that offer less attractive services. With this in mind, my staff and I believe KMX can remain resilient in the face of a consumer slowdown.

KMX trades at less than 20 times next year's earnings, and the company has a projected long-term growth rate of +18%. This represents outstanding value for a proven, fast-growing leader like CarMax, and we think this recent pullback presents an attractive buying opportunity.

If you are interested in more analysis from Paul Tracy, you can find it at StreetAuthority.com

Whole Foods (WFMI): Take advantage of the growing organic food market

Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WMFI) logo Shares in high-end grocery retailer Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) have slid around 20% since early November. The most obvious explanation for the pullback -- investors remain concerned that a weakening housing market and continued turmoil in the credit markets could result in a slowdown at Whole Foods.

However, the company is more resistant to these pressures than many investors realize. Americans have shown an increasing desire to eat healthier -- a trend that has allowed sales of organic foods to grow at three times the rate as those at conventional groceries. As the largest retailer of organic products, Whole Foods is well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

Moreover, while the company is the clear leader in the organic grocery niche, it's still a minnow compared to traditional grocery giants like Safeway and Kroger. With only around 200 stores spread across the U.S., the U.K. and Canada, Whole Foods still has plenty of untapped markets to expand into over the coming years.

Two additional factors are also weighing on the shares at the moment. The first is a general fear regarding the potential impact of increasing competition in the organic foods market. In recent years, traditional grocery chains have been adding to their selection of organic foods. At the same time, new entrants, such as Britain's Tesco, are also targeting the space more seriously. However, Whole Foods remains the undisputed leader in this market and offers the widest product selection. Furthermore, there's plenty of room for multiple competitors in this growing space.

Finally, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) continues to pursue an antitrust case against Whole Foods' merger with rival Wild Oats Market. However, the FTC's case is weak and was strongly rejected by a judge earlier this year. The courts also rejected the government's attempts to block the merger pending an appeal -- Whole Foods has now completed the deal. It's highly unlikely that an appeals court will overturn the deal and break up the merger.

If you are interested in more analysis from Paul Tracy, you can find it at StreetAuthority.com

Opportunity in a Weakened Capital One

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF) -- Shares in credit card giant Capital One have fallen around -12% over the past month on news that some customers are having a tough time making payments on their accounts.

Credit card charge-offs -- loans that were written off completely as bad debts -- increased from an average of 2.86% in the third quarter to 3.28% in October. Meanwhile, delinquent accounts -- a measure of the percentage of loans overdue by more than 30 days -- rose from 3.7% in September to nearly 4.9% in October.

The company went on to announce that the situation was worse in some markets, particularly those that saw the biggest increases in real estate prices during the last housing boom. Taken together, these metrics suggest that Capital One is seeing some spillover from the weakening housing market and the inability of some consumers to access credit via home equity loans.

If you are interested in more analysis from Paul Tracy, you can find it at StreetAuthority.com


Continue reading Opportunity in a Weakened Capital One

Portfolio Recovery: Making good on bad debt

In late April, Portfolio Recovery (NASDAQ: PRAA) reported better-than-expected earnings, launched a massive share buyback plan, and announced a one-time special dividend payment of $1 per share. The stock jumped on this positive news and has hardly looked back since.

Portfolio Recovery is one company that actually benefits from a deterioration in consumer credit quality. The firm buys up pools of defaulted credit card debt, automobile loans, and even unpaid telephone bills. Because these loans are delinquent or in default, they can be scooped up for just a few pennies on the dollar.

The original lenders that sell this debt can at least recoup some of their losses before writing the loans off the books. And if Portfolio Recovery collects on even a small percentage of the debt it buys, then the company earns a tidy profit. The trick, of course, is not to overpay.

When consumer credit quality is very strong, there are only a limited number of available pools of appropriate debt for Portfolio Recovery to buy. Because of the limited supply of delinquent debt, competition to buy these loans can be heated -- this tends to push up prices and cut into margins. However, with interest rates rising and the economy slowing, default rates on consumer debt have begun to tick higher. This tends to open up more opportunities for Portfolio Recovery to purchase bad debt on the cheap.

I believe the shares deserve to trade at a 20% premium to their growth rate, which would equate to a multiple of 22X this year's earnings estimates. This would give the stock a target near $70 per share.

For more from Paul Tracy, please visit www.streetauthority.com

NYX's pullback makes a nice entry point

Shares of NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) have fallen considerably over the past month. The prime catalyst for the fall was a bearish note from an influential Goldman Sachs analyst, who lowered NYX from a neutral rating to an outright sell.

The rationale for the downgrade is a new rule dubbed "Regulation NMS" that's set to come into effect soon. Basically, this rule requires brokers to check prices on competing exchanges and systems to see if a better price is available before executing a trade. The rule is designed to ensure the best possible pricing for customers regardless of which exchange actually clears their trades. Since some contend that the Nasdaq market has faster technology than NYX, this new rule could slow down NYSE trading volume and allow the Nasdaq to grab more share.

However, the actual impact of this new regulation is likely to be marginal. To date, NYX has had little difficulty attracting new listings or generating trading volume and fees. We remain convinced that the firm's now-completed merger with Europe's Euronext offers some outstanding opportunities for the company to expand its business across the Atlantic and boost volume, regardless of Regulation NMS. NYX now operates six separate exchanges in five countries.

In fact, the company's recent earnings release simply reinforces confidence in this story. The firm easily topped analysts' revenue estimates, due mainly to a higher-than-expected total of 72 new listings on the exchange. Each new listing means additional fees for NYX -- and these results don't yet include Euronext.

Finally, it's unlikely that NYX will stop with Euronext. The company has already negotiated a closer alliance with the Tokyo Stock Exchange and has also taken a stake in India's main exchange. NYSE Euronext has established itself as a global leader, with the most flexibility to offer trading across multiple markets, products and time zones.

For more analysis from Paul Tracy, please visit www.StreetAuthority.com

Adobe Systems: The right (and read, and design, and watch) stuff

Adobe Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: ADBE) is best known for its Acrobat Reader program. The popular format is used to create, distribute, and print electronic documents, and it has become ubiquitous on the Internet. The company also has two other major business lines: Creative Suite and Flash.

Creative Suite includes programs such as Photoshop and Illustrator, applications used by creative professionals like graphic and website designers to create and manipulate images electronically. Creative Suite is the dominant player in its industry. Through its acquisition of Macromedia, the firm also owns Flash, which is the standard program used to publish online video content. For example, Flash is the driving force behind the popular YouTube website that allows users to share videos online.

Continue reading Adobe Systems: The right (and read, and design, and watch) stuff

Panera Bread's pullback looks like an inviting entry point

Shares of Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) have pulled back since the company reported earnings in early April. The firm posted first-quarter earnings that were at the low end of its previous target of $0.47 to $0.50 per share -- that represented a slight discount to consensus analyst expectations. This announcement, coupled with a similar warning from PF Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ: PFCB), sparked fears that a slowdown in consumer spending is starting to hit the fast-casual restaurant chains.

But Panera's problems are at least partly due to geography and weather. Specifically, PNRA is based in St. Louis and has a high concentration of locations in the Midwest. This region of the country has been hit with particularly severe winter weather on several occasions this year, and such storms drastically slow business.

This inclement weather was particularly problematic because of Panera's policy of using fresh dough for its breads and pizzas. Basically, this dough must be made fresh each morning and tossed out at the end of each day. Lighter store traffic leads to lost revenues and higher raw ingredients costs.

However, I believe the worst possible news is already priced into the stock. Even based on lowered estimates, PNRA is trading at roughly 20 times forward earnings, a slight discount to its +24% long-term growth rate. That's cheap for a high-quality growth stock like PNRA.

To see more analysis from Paul Tracy, visit www.streetauthority.com

Electronic Arts: the 800-lb. gorilla in video games

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) is the 800-pound gorilla in the video game industry. In fact, the company publishes about three times as many major titles -- those that sell more than one million copies per year -- as Activision Inc.(NASDAQ: ATVI), its nearest competitor. The company produces top games for all of the major platforms, including Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE), Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), as well as games for PCs and portable hand-held devices.

Of course, branding is the key to the video game software industry. In this case, it's not so much the Electronic Arts brand itself, but the company's existing stable of highly popular video game titles. Once consumers have played and enjoyed a particular game series, they tend to seek out and purchase sequels in the same series. And when new consoles are launched, those same consumers tend to purchase enhanced, updated versions of their favorite games.

Continue reading Electronic Arts: the 800-lb. gorilla in video games

USPIX: Go short without a margin account

Investors interested in hedging their bets, or those who feel the markets will correct further, may want to look into the ProFunds UltraShort OTC Investor Shares (NASDAQ: USPIX). This fund is designed to return twice the inverse of the Nasdaq 100 Index. In other words, if the Nasdaq 100 falls by -5%, then the USPIX fund should return roughly +10%. Similarly, if the Nasdaq 100 jumps +5%, the USPIX would be down roughly -10%.

Many individual investors are geared toward investing in growth stocks with high expectations. While growth stocks tend to outperform the market during rallies, they can also get hit harder than the broader averages when the market is weak or when traders are concerned about economic growth. As such, the beta on growth stocks tends to be greater than 1.0 -- they move faster than the broader indices.

Therefore, holding onto USPIX acts as a hedge against this inherent volatility. A stake in USPIX could have certainly helped shelter a portfolio from the sharp market drops in late February and early March. The fund performed this function admirably over that time frame, rising about 15%.

While most outlooks for the economy and broader market remain positive, the recent volatility could well continue over the short-term until traders become more comfortable with the economic picture, as well as the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Therefore, USPIX could make a welcome hedge to any portfolio.

NYX's rebound is all about the growth

Shares of the NYSE Group (NYSE:NYX) have soared close to 15% since they hit a short-term low on March 16th. There are several catalysts behind this move:

First, exchange shares were hit harder than most during the broader market decline in late February. Fundamentally, however, the short-term market dip is unlikely to have a major impact on revenues at NYSE. In fact, trading volume on the exchange actually surged to near-record levels during that decline -- and higher volumes spell more fees for NYX.

It also helps that the company is now completing its planned takeover of Europe's Euronext. The tender offer for Euronext ended in late March, and NYX announced it currently controls more than 92% of Euronext shares. Over the next three years, NYX believes it can extract some 293 million euros ($385 million) from the deal in the form of cost savings and other synergies. In addition, the deal will also facilitate trans-Atlantic trading in stocks and options. Many see the deal as a major positive, and a potential growth avenue for NYX.

Continue reading NYX's rebound is all about the growth

ASFI: Benefiting from the sub-prime meltdown

Looking for a way to cash in on the sub-prime meltdown? Consider this: Since the beginning of 2007, Asta Funding (NASDAQ: ASFI) is now up an impressive +37%.

Asta is in the business of buying up non-performing consumer debts such as credit cards, unpaid utility bills and auto loans. The company buys these late or defaulted debts for pennies on the dollar from banks and other lenders, and it then turns around and tries to collect at least partial payments on the loans.

One of the concerns about this lucrative industry is that the prices companies like Asta must pay for loans are rising. Because consumer default rates have been generally low, the supply of non-performing loans has remained relatively low. Meanwhile, other companies have entered the business, driving up costs.

Continue reading ASFI: Benefiting from the sub-prime meltdown

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 05:23 AM

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