FeedPosted Jul 10th 2007 8:40AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Competitive Strategy, Market Matters, Define Investing, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
One of the fun parts of investing, whether professionally or as a private investor, is finding that special small-capitalization name and running with it. Typically, a company with a market value, or market capitalization of $1 billion or under, is considered small capitalization. Some investors place that number at $3 billion or under, but the professional investing world uses $1 billion as the measuring stick.
Many companies that trade at $1 billion or under market cap are newer, less established companies that try to make their mark in their respective sectors. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury note sporting a current yield of 5.16%, it's a tough environment for these stocks to garner attention, or serious buying. Small cap names need a friendly interest rate scene to capture serious investors interest. The "safe yields" of the 10 year note over 5% negates the attractive growth rates that small cap stocks can provide.
Small cap names tend to carry a lot more risk as they are less consistent when it comes to earnings. With "easy money" earnings north of 5%, these stocks are difficult to move up to higher valuations. Many a portfolio manager will tell you it is a great time to accumulate these types of stocks as sellers are sometimes sloppy in their selling style, thus allowing for bargain pricing for the buyers.
Small cap stocks can be the best performing sector of the market in a lower interest rate environment, but investors will scramble for larger cap, paying dividends names in high interest rate times. Consistent dividends means consistent earnings.
As we enter this second quarter earnings season, identify your small cap favorites and nibble away at bargain prices. Here are some my small cap growth ideas: Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 Years. Eventually, the stock market rewards earnings growth with higher valuations. Always has. Always will...
Georges Yared is the Chief Investment Strategist for Yared Investment Research.
Posted Jun 21st 2007 12:24PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years, Zoltek Co (ZOLT)
In my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years I promised you that if anything relevant or game-changing were to come about, I would write it up for your reading pleasure. Well, I have some new news on Zoltek Co. (NASDAQ: ZOLT). I wrote up the initial Zoltek report just last week, but since that publishing, some relevant good news has come up.
Zoltek is the worldwide leader in the manufacturing of carbon fiber material. Carbon fiber has hundreds of applications from sporting goods to aeronautical casings. The most popular application of carbon fiber is as the material of choice for rotor blades on huge energy-generating wind turbines. The carbon fiber is lighter, less prone to friction and therefore far more efficient and cheaper to operate than traditional materials. The Dewind Corporation (a subsidiary of Composite Technology Corp./OTC: CPTC) has contracted Zoltek for the next several years to supply it with enough carbon fiber material to satisfy its growing demand.
This comes on top of the commitment made to Zoltek by the large Danish wind generator company Vestas. Vestas is one of the leading European companies in the energy field and known for its cutting-edge choices in technology and materials.
Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Update -- Zoltek
Posted Jun 19th 2007 11:30AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Deals, Ford Motor (F), 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years,
The first company in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is about to be acquired. Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) is being pursued by Dutch-based company Philips Lighting for $34 per share. The Dutch company is the world's largest lighting company.
The $34 per share offer represents a $688 million total acquisition price. Color Kinetics management has endorsed the deal and is encouraging shareholders to accept the offer.
Color Kinetics brings a rich portfolio of patents to the marriage. With 64 patents having been granted and another 100+ patents-pending, Color Kinetics brings to Philips the next generation technology of LED lighting products. Color Kinetics had won many high-profile lighting contracts recently, including the dash-board lighting work for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F). The new-generation LED-based lighting systems had not yet been economical for residential housing applications, but the market is indeed moving in that direction.
With Philips owning Color Kinetics technology, the residential market will be within its reach in the near future. Color Kinetics is selling to Philips for nearly 7 times revenues, a rich valuation, but certainly not when considering the growth rate of Color Kinetics, 35-40%, and its patent portfolio.
Oh well, we still have 24 companies left on the original list of 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years...
Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.
Posted Jun 15th 2007 5:28PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Chipotle Mexican Grill'A' (CMG), 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years, , Calif Pizza Kitchen (CPKI)
My series of the
top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is finished. It has been an eye-opening body of work for me, one which I thoroughly enjoyed. I hope you, the readers learned a little bit and will profit from some of these future big companies.
The whole series made me think what if someone had written a series like this back in 1982. Many of the names I wrote about I am sure were met with "what's this company?" or " I have never heard of these guys." Back in 1982 I am sure we would have reacted the same way, as many of the future great companies were new or unheard of ... and some did not even exist at that point. As I wrote in the introduction of this series, some of the top 25 stocks may not even be public yet, or even founded for that matter. Google ( NASDAQ: GOOG) was founded in 1998, just 9 years ago and is now a $160 billion market capitalization company!! It has been public for only 3 years.
I am not sure how many of the names I wrote about will be in the top 25 for the NEXT 25 years: only time and performance will tell. But of this I am confident: many of these companies will continue to grow and be more and more relevant in our daily lives. Many will touch us in ways we will never see or truly understand. Not many of us will deal with a large bank and wonder if Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW) is helping them to automate its massive server farm? Or the next time we slam on our brakes to hopefully avoid an accident, will we really wonder if Wind River Systems (NASDAQ: WIND) designed the real-time operating system micro-chip that helped this automaker design the anti-lock brakes? I doubt it.
Continue reading The top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: 25 for your consideration
Posted Jun 15th 2007 11:30AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT and last company in my on-going series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is DG Fast Channel (NASDAQ: DGIT). DGIT is headquartered in Irving, Texas and has a current market capitalization of $350 million. DGIT is emerging as one of the go-to companies in the internet advertising world.
DG Fast Channel is a leading provider of digitally distributed marketing services to advertising agencies, broadcasters and general advertisers including printed media. The company employs a web based user interface for more than 5,000 advertisers and ad agencies to up-load digitally, either via satellite or cable Internet- radio, television and Internet commercials. The company services over 4,000 television and cable destinations and also over 10,000 radio outlets.
Continue reading The top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: DG Fast Channel (DGIT)
Posted Jun 14th 2007 4:15PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major Movement, Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT name in my on-going series of the Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years is Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT). Zoltek is headquartered in suburban St. Louis, Missouri and has a current market capitalization of $1.1 billion. The stock is trading at $39. For full disclosure, I have been recommending Zoltek to the members of my web site since $19-20 just a few months ago. The stock is still a buy.
Zoltek develops, manufactures and distributes carbon fiber which has hundreds of applications. Zoltek is considered an alternative energy company as carbon fiber weighs less than traditional materials and therefore employs far less energy. Some of the applications are in primary building materials: Sporting goods, aircraft braking systems, and the blades on energy creating wind turbines. Zoltek has received a lot of attention in the wind turbines sector as the demand is very high for these windmill-looking energy generators. The carbon fiber making up the blades requires little to no maintenance and is lighter allowing for faster revolutions. Thus, more energy is generated by using Zoltek's carbon fiber.
Continue reading The Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Zoltek-ZOLT
Posted Jun 13th 2007 11:15AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT company in my on-going series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is DexCom, Inc (NASDAQ: DXCM). This San Diego, California-based company has the opportunity to address the millions of people that suffer from diabetes. DexCom manufactures a continuous glucose monitoring system, which is extremely user-friendly and helps improve the diabetics' quality of life.
DexCom's business model is the classic razor-razor blade. DexCom sells a wireless glucose monitoring device, for about $800 per unit. Because of the wireless component, the monitor is completely mobile with the patient and can even be hooked to a belt like a cell phone. The company also sells the "implantable" disposable sensors that the patients slip-in just under the skin. Each sensor is good for up to 72 hours. The sensors come in a five-pack and sell for about $175 a pack.
Patients no longer have to endure the painful finger prick to draw a minor amount of blood to detect their glucose level. Also, with the monitor and sensors, the readings are far more accurate and continuous so the patient can administer the necessary insulin at the precise time versus a bit of a guessing game.
Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: DexCom
Posted Jun 12th 2007 1:59PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT company in my ongoing series of the Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years is Luna Innovations (NASDAQ: LUNA). This Roanoke, Virginia-based company is most interesting and could be quite explosive in its valuation as the years go by. It is a micro-capitalization company at this point with a valuation of only $48 million, but its prospects are quite large.
Luna Innovations develops and is in the midst of commercializing technology solutions in the molecular technology and sensing instruments. This small company is divided into four divisions: advanced materials, medical devices, sensing and testing and contract research. Although until recently most of Luna's work has come from government contract work, the monetizing of its intellectual property has begun in the private sector. For example, back in mid-May, Luna received US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for a medical device known as EDAC- Emboli Detection and Classification. EDAC is a non-invasive medical device that employs ultrasound technology to detect emboli (blood clots). Currently, Luna is interviewing several larger medical device companies for the distribution rights to EDAC.
Luna also is involved in the optical-fiber world with several analyzer and detection products. Its ultrasonic technology is gaining a foothold in the telecommunications segment, as well. Its contract work with the government is for the Homeland Security Department. Luna's devices employing high-frequency sound waves can help evaluate the physical properties of materials for use in non-industrial testing. The scope and nature of its involvement with government projects is not always fully disclosed.
Continue reading The top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Luna Innovations
Posted Jun 11th 2007 1:27PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is SurModics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRDX). This Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company has a current market capitalization of $650 million with a revenue run rate of $75 million. The company is actively involved in many next-generation medical technologies.
SurModics' mission is to provide leading-edge surface modifications and advanced drug delivery technologies and products. The company is divided into three distinct divisions: drug delivery, hydrophillic and In-Vitro. The drug delivery segment offers various technologies to site-specific delivery of drugs. Within this segment is the burgeoning ophthalmology division, which helps deal with serious eye diseases such as age-related macular degeneration. The hydrophillic segment has proprietary technologies for medical devices. It's a lubricious coating that allows for better placement and maneuverability of the actual devices. The In-Vitro division includes products for genomic slide technologies and stabilization products for immunoassay diagnostic testing.
SurModics sells its products to a whole host of medical device and life sciences companies. The hydrophillic business segment will normally have a very long term commitment with its medical device customer, as SurModic will specifically formulate the lubricant to compliment the device company's requirements to satisfy the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The same with the two other divisions as SurModics is usually involved early on in the development and FDA approval process.
Continue reading The top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: SurModics
Posted Jun 8th 2007 4:30PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Internet, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT company in my ongoing series of the Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years is Blue Coat Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BCSI). This Sunnyvale, California based company has a current market capitalization of $625 million and was founded in 1996 as CacheFlow, Inc. CacheFlow changed its name to Blue Coat Systems in 2002.
Blue Coat Systems makes appliances and client-based solutions that allow organizations the ability to enhance security and accelerate performance for their networks. Its key product set is the ProxySG family of appliances, which improve existing authentication systems right down to the actual user. ProxyAV is an anti-virus appliance that allows enterprises to scan for viruses, spyware, worms and Trojans at the internet gateway level and at the email level. The product is designed to detect these viruses that bypass existing virus-scanning devices.
Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Blue Coat Systems
Posted Jun 5th 2007 2:56PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Sony Corp ADR (SNE), 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is RealNetworks, Inc (NASDAQ: RNWK). This Seattle-based company has a market capitalization of $1.3 billion. RealNetworks is an early player in digital media products and in the delivery of such products. RealNetworks already has an international scope with penetration in the United States, Asia and Europe.
RealNetworks markets and develops proprietary software products that enable the creation of digital audio and video. The company sells a distributed music service called Rhapsody, which is membership based. The company also offers RadioPass, an internet radio subscription service. The RealPlayer Music Store allows for customers to purchase and download music tracks, music news and other music content, as well as digital games. RealNetworks is a soup-to-nuts service to its retail customer base.
The other strength and growing component of the business is the product suite of software and services offered to the wireless carriers, cable companies and other communications companies. They, in turn, can provide digital media content to their mobile phone customers and directly to PCs. Part of the technology set allows for video-on-demand and music-on-demand. RealNetworks sells and distributes its product and services through several third-party vendors and retailers. It also markets itself through a creative and easy to navigate web site.
Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: RealNetworks
Posted Jun 3rd 2007 4:10PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Products and Services, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Wind River Systems (NASDAQ: WIND). Wind river is headquartered in Alameda, California, and has a market capitalization of $925 million. Wind River Systems is a technology company that virtually touches our daily lives, and yet 99% of us have no clue what Wind River does or how it affects us!
Wind River offers a suite of technical products, primarily software based, that allow software developers and electrical engineers to laser-beam focus the functionality of a semi-conductor chip. Wind's tools are employed to optimize the functionality and the speed of a device. So, in English what does all this mean? Well, for example,the air-bags in an automobile serve a singular, powerful function -- deploying in the event of an accident. Wind River Systems product suite for the automotive industry facilitates the semi-conductor chip that governs the air-bag's "brain center." Does the force or the angle of the impact merit deployment of the air-bag? The decision by the embedded chip is figured out in miliseconds. Wind River's software developed for the chip enables that specific functionality in an instant. It's a single purpose, real-time operating system designed specifically for that application. There, easy right?
Wind River sells its suite of products to the avionics industry, automotive, digital imaging manufacturers, internet router makers, medical device companies, mobile and handset makers. Wind River has established strategic relationships and partnerships with IBM, Intel, Texas Instruments, Motorola, Toshiba MIPS, and many more. Wind's suite of software development, debugging, and testing products are the industry standard for reliability and accuracy. Wind River sells its products worldwide, employing a direct sales and technical force. The complexity of customer projects requires Wind River to be available for training and complex technical support.
Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Wind River Systems
Posted Jun 3rd 2007 9:10AM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Products and Services, Internet, Competitive Strategy, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The next company in my ongoing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is CBeyond, Inc (NASDAQ: CBEY). CBeyond has a market capitalization right at $1 billion. The company has an opportunity to be a dominant player in the total communications to the small-to-medium business sector.
CBeyond is a communications service provider (CSP), marketing to the small-to-medium business sector, as defined by 2 to 300 employees. The managed services offered by CBeyond include local voice, long distance and broadband internet access. Other services include e-mail systems, unified messaging, virtual private network (VPN) for remote users, and secure backup and file sharing. Soup to nuts, CBeyond offers the smaller enterprise the full package of communications with ease of use and simplified pricing programs.
The systems are delivered through T1 circuits right on the customer's premise and CBeyond guarantees carrier-grade quality of service and functionality. Most customers sign up for 3- to 5-year contracts, thus providing CBeyond with excellent revenue visibility going forward.
Small-to-medium business enterprises are ripe for bundled services, as CBeyond offers the one-stop shopping convenience for these enterprises. CBeyond monitors the "what's new" factor for its customers and builds in to the contracts, the upgrades when available. This allows the end customer to not be concerned about what is new in the technology world. CBeyond provides the so-called peace-of-mind solution.
Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: CBeyond
Posted May 31st 2007 5:45PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
The NEXT stock in my on-going series of the 25 Top Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years is VistaPrint (NASDAQ: VPRT). VistaPrint completed its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2005. It has comfortably achieved or exceeded every quarter since the IPO. The company has a current market capitalization of $1.7 billion and was founded in 1995. The company has posted 27 consecutive up quarters, the last 6 quarters as a public entity.
VistaPrint provides graphic design services and customized print products to consumers and small-to-medium size business world-wide. Among its many products VistaPrint offers business cards, brochures, calendars, folded cards, envelopes, presentation folders, newsletters, etc. The customer can choose from various templates and graphic designs for logos and the other printed products. Customers also have access to over 70,000 stock photographs and illustrations to choose from.
The beauty of VistaPrint's business is that it has captured more than seven million customers to date from over 110 countries.The strength of this customer base is diverse and geographically scattered. VistaPrint aggressively markets its services and products in several on-line web sites. The long-term key is to grow the existing base and obviously capture a greater number of new customers, while marketing to the existing list for add-on sales.
Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 years: VistaPrint
Posted May 31st 2007 1:15PM by Georges Yared (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Internet, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), , 25 Stocks for Next 25 Years
In my continuing series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years, the next company is SourceForge (NASDAQ: LNUX). The company just changed its corporate name from VA Software to SourceForge, but has elected to retain its original NASDAQ ticker symbol of LNUX. SourceForge was founded in 1995 as VA Linux Systems and sold primarily Linux-based hardware systems.The company has transformed itself these past few years and recently sold off its unprofitable software business.
LNUX departed the software business to focus on the on-line business. SourceForge is made up of two major divisions: on-line media, which is made up of Open Source Technology Group, a network of technology related web sites that generates revenues by selling advertising on the web sites, and E-Commerce, which sells consumer goods targeted to the massive technology community. The principle web site is ThinkGeek.
The recent quarter saw ThinkGeek improve its sales by 31% as it shipped over 84,000 orders. The products are "rather geeky" toys and accessories that appeal to the tech world of ... aah ... geeks. The traffic to the site is now up to 200 million unique visitors this past quarter. Geeks do buy this stuff!
SourceForge's on-line media campaigns are driving growth as well. With over 30 million unique visitors and 1.6 million registered users, SourceForge is able to offer quite a community for any technology company wanting to advertise. The site is so tech-driven that the quality of visitors and registered users is superb and exactly what the tech companies desire: an educated potential buyer.
SourceForge has cleaned up the unprofitable software business and is now focused on its core competencies. I estimate revenues for 2007 at $51-52 million growing to $60 million and $76 million for 2008/2009 respectively. The earnings per share should be about $0.10 this year followed by $0.20 and $0.32 for 2008/2009. These numbers could prove to be quite conservative.
The operating margins for SourceForge should also ramp up quite well. Currently I estimate operating margins at 6% this year and going to 18-19% by 2009. The leverage in the financial model is just beginning to yield results.
The on-line marketing/advertising sector is growing at 35-40%. Recently, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) announced its intended acquisition of privately held DoubleClick and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is acquiring aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT). As SourceForge continues to build its revenues and unique visitor traffic the franchise becomes only more and more valuable. The technology world is huge and obviously populated by well-trained individuals. The traffic numbers should only continue upwards and on-line advertising revenues more high-margin driven due to the scale in the model.
SourceForge is at the start of a mega-growth cycle in its development and has the opportunity to become a significant, relevant player in the sector.
Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research. For more growth stock ideas please visit the web site.
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