"Instead of being 'reactive' and waiting for inflation, the Chinese leaders are choosing to be 'proactive' to head off inflation before it takes hold," says China stock specialist Tony Sagami in UnCommon Wisdom.

"The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, increased the reserve requirements by 0.5% effective on January 18 from 15.5% for large banks and 13.5% for small banks.

Large and rapidly growing deficits and public debt at the federal and state level will eventually lead to a rise in interest rates and to the crowding out of other spending as governments service debt. This will likely start near the end of this year or early in 2011.

And please don't blame the Democrats, the party of fiscal rectitude. The Republicans doubled the debt while they controlled the White House and Congress, financing a war off balance sheet, led by a cheerleader in chief who told people to go shopping rather than tighten their belts after 9/11. And historically, red-staters spend more on their key constituents than the Dems, so if they grab power, nothing will change.

I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.

Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.

Our first cold-weather stock isn't actually a stock; it's an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It is United States Natural Gas (UNG), an ETF designed to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of natural gas

The logic for UNG is simple. The colder it is outside, the more we need to heat our homes and offices, and most of us do this via natural gas. The increased demand for natural gas should translate into higher natural gas prices. Of course, sometimes this simple logic isn't quite that simple.

If you live practically anywhere east of the San Andreas Fault, you know about the deep freeze biting the nation. Temperatures in many areas of the country have been way below normal this winter, especially in the Midwest and East Coast, and unfortunately, many meteorologists think the 2010 cold front will bring plenty of chilly nights before it makes its welcome departure.

According to the 2010 Farmers' Almanac, this winter will likely see many more days with below-normal average temperatures. Not just in the Midwest and East Coast, but for about three-quarters of the nation. The fallout from these cold temps is a constriction of outdoor activity, more time indoors, increased use of heaters, and when you have to go outside, the need to bundle up.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

While many have jumped on the gold bandwagon, Jim Lowell is taking the opposite approach, selected a bearish gold fund as a top pick for the coming year.

The editor of The ETF Trader looks to Proshares UltraShort Gold (GLL); should gold bullion decline in value, this 2X leveraged fund would be expected to rise twice as much.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"iShares MSCI Germany (EWG) has bounced back in 2009 from an especially rotten 2008," says exchange-traded fund specialist Mark Salzinger.

In his The ETF Investor's Report, he explains, "We think Germany's major export-oriented stocks are poised to perform well again in 2010, despite concerns about domestic spending."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Whenever inflation heats up, there's no better place to park your cash than in tangible commodities," says Nathan Slaughter.

In his The ETF Authority, he noes "Our favorite play on this sector is Market Vectors Hard Asset Producers (HAP), an ETF whose 300-stock portfolio provides one-stop shopping for six distinct commodity sub-sectors."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"The 2010 global recovery brings opportunity in agriculture commodities," says fund expert Doug Fabian, who turns to the "soft ag" sector for his top investment idea for the coming year.

In his The ETF Trader, the advisor looks to a leveraged exchange-traded note -- the DB Agriculture Double Long ETN (DAG). Here's his review.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"2010 will be the year that silver shines," says metals and mining specialist Gene Arensberg.

In his Got Gold Report, a specialty service from The Gold Newsletter, he says, "We believe that the metal-backed exchange traded fund iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a safe and convenient way for most investors to gain exposure to the small, but growing-in-popularity silver market."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"When extreme valuations are accompanied by unbridled optimism or abject pessimism, it virtually always marks a turning point -- and an opportunity; and this is no exception," says Alex Green, referring to the U.S. dollar.

Here, the senior investment advisor to The Oxford Club and Investment U looks to PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP) as a favorite idea for the coming year.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"The global bull market is back in Brazil," says international investing expert Nicholas Vardy.

In The Global Bull Market Alert, he explains, "Global markets recovered in the beginning of November; at that time, we looked to one of the hottest markets on the planet, Brazil, through the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF)." The ETF remains his top pick for 2010.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Though most investors do not associate Pacific-Rim investments with high-dividend yields, Matthews Asia Dividend (MAPIX) could change their perception," says Mark Salzinger.

In his No-Load Fund Investor, he looks to this fund, which he notes recently offered a dividend yield of approximately 4%.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

For his top fund selection for 2010, fund specialist Ron Rowland turns to the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap (EWX).

In his All Star Investor, he suggests, "This is the easiest way to gain access to the small cap stocks of all the emerging markets, as it includes stocks from more than 20 countries countries."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

Given his view that market risk is rising, Ken Kam has chosen a top pick for 2010 that is not necessarily selected in the hope of gains; rather, he chooses a "short" position for its role in hedging one's portfolio.

The Marketocracy analyst looks to the ProShares UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF (TWM), which seeks twice the inverse performance of the Russell 2000 index. For example, if the Russell 2000 index falls by 1%, this ETF would expect to rise 2%.