As the second half of the year begins, the bear market has nervous investors looking for any sign of a shift in the direction of the market. When the new earnings seasons kicks off Tuesday, Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) second-quarter results may offer the first glimpse of what to expect going forward.
Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has missed earnings estimates in just two out of the past five quarters. When the leading aluminum producer reported first-quarter results back in March, its net income of 44 cents per share fell short of the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial by four cents, and were down from 79 cents per share in the same quarter of 2007. For this current quarter, analysts expect earnings of 68 cents per share on $7.4 billion in revenue.
Alcoa's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 21.6%, which is less than the metals and mining industry average but better than the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation from analysts is to buy Alcoa, and has been for more than 90 days. The share price has been falling from a recent high of $44. 77 in mid May, and closed at $32.78 on Friday. Shares are down 10.3% year to date.
U.S. stock futures were mixed early Monday morning after the long holiday weekend to start a week that is also set to kick off second quarter corporate earnings. While oil weakness and the dollar strength helped the mood on the Street, there is much concern over earnings.
U.S. stocks ended mixed on a short trading day Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 73 points, or 0.65%, but it wasn't enough to pull it out of bear-market territory it fell into during last week. The S&P 500 also climbed 1 point, or 0.11%, but the Nasdaq composite fell 6 points, or 0.27%, on Thursday.
No economic data is scheduled for release Monday, so investor will likely continue to focus on energy prices while anticipating the beginning of earnings season. Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel Monday to just over $143 a barrel as the dollar strengthened. Still, the dollar is expected to resume its decline and as Mideast tensions continue, traders don't expect oil to decline much further.
Meanwhile, investors in general don't anticipate corporate America to deliver good earnings. The season will officially kick off Tuesday, when Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports after the close. General Electric (NYSE: GE), reports Friday. The question seems to be more how bad results will be, and if they would signal a bottom from which stocks could recover.
The new quarter brings with it a new earnings season. While the earnings crunch doesn't begin in earnest until the following week, Alcoa as usual helps kick things off this coming week.
One of the world's leading producers of aluminum, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is scheduled to report second-quarter results Tuesday after market close. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect the company to report net income of 68 cents per share on revenue of $7.4 billion. That's down 16% from EPS a year ago. Alcoa has missed estimates in two of the past five quarters -- by four cents in the previous quarter. Analysts have recommend buying AA for more than 90 days. Shares have fallen 10.3% year to date, but the long-term EPS growth forecast is 21.6%.
Beverage distributor Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. (NYSE: PBG) is scheduled to report its second-quarter results Tuesday morning. Analysts are looking for earnings of 75 cents per share, up 6.6% from the same period of the previous year, on revenue of $3.6 billion. PBG has offered up positive surprises recently, by a penny in the previous quarter. However, analysts recommend holding PBG, and have for more than 90 days. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 9.1%, which is better than the industry average. Shares have fallen 27.6% year to date.
San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tower sector stocks, Tesco Plc and Alcoa were today's noteworthy upgrades:
RBC Capital upgraded American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle( NYSE::CCI), SBAComm (NASDAQ:SBAC) to Outperform from Sector Perform citing recent weakness in the tower sector group and a continued favorable outlook.
Merrill upgraded shares of Tesco (Other OTC:TSCDY) to Buy from Neutral as they believe it is the only proven growth stock in the sector.
Soleil upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness.
Soleil upgraded Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to "hold" from "sell", according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup upgraded Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) to "buy" from "hold".
D.A. Davidson raised it price target on Talbots (NYSE:TLB) from $7.50 to $12.50, according to the AP.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Ambac Inc. (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are trading much lower in premarket trading after Moody's Investors Service cut their Aaa ratings. Moody's downgraded Ambac's insurance financial strength rating to Aa3, and MBIA's insurance financial strength rating was downgraded to A2.
Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) shares are trading over 3.5% lower in premarket trading after its investment unit has liquidated a fund that specialized in mortgage-backed securities worth $403 million, the Journal reported.
FORTUNE writer wonder how Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) could target business customers next. Meanwhile, Tech Trader Daily writes that according to Oppenheimer, AT&T (NYSE: T) is paying a subsidy of $325 for the new 3G iPhone. The typical smartphone subsidy is about $200.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alcoa, Publicis Groupe and Fresenius were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Neutral from Overweight as they do not believe the company is a takeover target. The firm thinks investors could be disappointed with the new CEO's strategic direction as well as near-term earnings.
Societe Generale cut Publicis (OTC: PUBGY) to Sell from Buy on valuation following the recent rally and macroeconomic concerns.
UBS downgraded Fresenius (NYSE: FMS) to Neutral from Buy citing valuation, but added shares to its Short-Term Buy list citing potential upward EPS revisions when the company reports on July 3.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) said its Australian operations declared force majeure under supply contracts because an explosion at a gas supplier slowed production. Alcoa said the disruption will likely lower second-quarter earnings by 2 cents to 3 cents a share. Also, JP Morgan downgraded Alcoa from Overweight to Neutral, saying the company will not be a takeover target.
Bloggers, investors and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) weren't just interested in the new 3G iPhone unveiled Monday. Many of them commented on the appearance of CEO Steve Jobs and voiced concerns for his health, saying he was gaunt-looking. While a spokeswoman said Jobs was hit with a common bug, many are worried since Jobs was diagnosed with a rare form of pancreatic cancer four years ago, for which he underwent surgery that Apple said was successful.
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) was awarded a $397.1 million contract from the U.S. Army for two types of dozers with armor kits. The contract has one five-year option. Work is expected to be completed by 2018. Caterpillar is also holding its annual meeting today.
Citi Investment Research affirmed Plexus (NASDAQ: PLXS) affirmed its "hold" rating ahead of the company's analyst meeting, according to the AP.
J.P Morgan downgraded Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to "neutral" from "overweight," according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Friedman Billings affirmed its "outperform" rating on Kroger (NYSE:KR.)
Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) was started as Neutral at Goldman Sachs, according to24/7 Wall St.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE-AA) is recently down 30 cents to $37.70.
AA call option volume of 53,011 contracts compares to put volume of 14,940 contracts. AA May 37.5 straddle is priced at $2.90. AA May option implied volatility is at 57; June is at 47, above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is recently down 27c to $34.50. AA call option volume of 8,138 contracts compares to put volume of 735 contracts. AA May option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
As the second half of the year begins, the bear market has nervous investors looking for any sign of a shift in the direction of the market. When the new earnings seasons kicks off Tuesday, Alcoa Inc.'s (NYSE: AA) second-quarter results may offer the first glimpse of what to expect going forward. 
U.S. stock futures were mixed early Monday morning after the long holiday weekend to start a week that is also set to kick off second quarter corporate earnings. While oil weakness and the dollar strength helped the mood on the Street, there is much concern over earnings.
The new quarter brings with it a new earnings season. While the earnings crunch doesn't begin in earnest until the following week, Alcoa as usual helps kick things off this coming week..gif){kind=logo}
Alcoa
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Alcoa Inc.
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