Alcoa (NYSE: AA - option chain) shares are rising today after the company announced it will reduce production at its Portland smelter in Australia by another 38,000 tons in order to cope with declining metals prices. The company already announced a 15,000-ton production cut at that smelter in December. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AA.

AA opened this morning at $8.71. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.60 and a high of $8.92. As of 11:05, AA is trading at $8.78, up 0.26 (3.0%). The chart for AA looks bearish and S&P gives AA a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) forecast Q3 earnings that are well above analysts' estimates.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) said it narrowed its loss in Q4 despite restructuring costs.
• Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM) is expected to fall short of Q4 earnings expectations.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported strong Q2 results and and raised its outlook for Q3.

This was one of those days that if you just looked at a large group of stocks you would have no feel for the closing bell levels. The FOMC Minutes from the March 17 to March 18 meeting were given some of the blame for the late day sell-off, although if you have to read one-month old data to get insight into a post-Fed action event explaining it... then something is wrong.

Hence the late-day recovery after that. The reality is that traders are still using any excuse to take a profit or to lighten up after a four-week run, and there are still buyers out there to meet them. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 7,837.11 +47.55 (0.61%)
S&P 500 825.16 +9.61 (1.18%)
Nasdaq 1,590.66 +29.05 (1.86%)

Top Analyst Calls
Top Tech Analyst Calls

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it's a good deal, but there isn't enough risk capital about.

So TALF is dropping off -- not enough money going into the program. Not enough at all. And it worries me.

This program is integral to the turnaround thesis -- we need money to flow into these asset-backed markets. It's a sign that people aren't willing to put in more money than last month -- the program needs a push.

U.S. stocks may be poised to drop for a third day following yesterday's disappointing results from Alcoa Inc. (AA), the first major Dow component to report this earnings season.

According to Bloomberg News, futures on the S&P 500 expiring in June decreased 0.9 percent to 806.60 at 10:50 a.m. in London, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 1% to 7,683 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 0.6% to 1,273.75. Markets in Europe and Asia were also down.

Alcoa Inc. (AA) must have drawn the short straw to be the economic canary in the coal mine decades ago, but for many investors the aluminum maker's earnings are seen as a harbinger of things to come. Judging from Wall Street estimates, expectations are so low, they are almost laughable.

Analysts expect the Dow component to lose 56 cents per share on revenue of $4.08 billion compared with $303 million, or 37 cents, a year earlier on revenue of $7.38 billion, according to estimates by Thomson Reuters. The Pittsburgh-based company reported its first loss in six years in January. Its shares are down about 30 percent this year, even with the recent surge in the stock market.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you don't want to wait for a pullback, look abroad for the next leg or find values at home.

What do you do when everyone knows we have come up too far, too fast; no one knows who is actually buying; and we are going into earnings season?

What do you do when the animal spirits are taking up the market and yet other than a handful companies -- Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), Xilinx (NASDAQ: XLNX) (Cramer's Take), Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer's Take), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) (Cramer's Take) and Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) (Cramer's Take) -- almost all companies that have spoken during the "off-season" earnings reports have been dismal?

A new earnings reporting season kicks off this coming week with the quarterly report from Alcoa, the first Dow Jones industrial to report. But investors looking for early signs about the first quarter will be disappointed in what they see from the aluminum producer, assuming that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are neither too optimistic or too pessimistic about those results.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Neutral after its channel checks indicated a modest increase in ad spend per client in March. The upgrade is based on early indications that search pricing and ad spend are stabilizing, search volume continuing to grow at a double-digit rate, and Merriman's belief that consensus estimates are now at reasonable levels.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Hold from Sell and raised its price target to $8 from $7.30 following the company's asset sales in March as it believes the financial overhang on the stock has been removed.
  
• Suntrust said Providence Service (NASDAQ: PRSC) has returned to profitability through demand stabilization for social services and cost controls. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• Telmex (NYSE: TMX) was upgraded to Neutral from Undeperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein.
  
• Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) was lifted to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Within the past year, the stock price of Alcoa (NYSE: AA), a mega aluminum producer, has gone from a high of $44.78 to a low of $4.97. Although, during the past few weeks, things have perked up. In fact, yesterday Alcoa's stock price surged 17% to $6.40.

The reason? Alcoa was able to drum up interest in its recent financing. In all, the company raised $1.3 billion in stock and convertible notes. Keep in mind that Alcoa expected to raise $1.1 billion.

In the aftermarket, the trading of the new securities was robust -- which certainly delighted traders.

Analyst upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded Alcoa (NYSE: AA) to Overweight from Neutral and added shares to its Focus List. The analyst said the equity offering and dividend cut provide enough "liquidity insurance" to make it through 2009 and now views risk/reward as attractive.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Asbury Automotive (NYSE: ABG) to Buy from Hold as it finds the current valuation attractive and thinks the company's cost savings will drive upside in a recovery. The firm raised its target price to $7 from $5.50.
  
• Barclays upgraded Beckman Coulter (NYSE: BEC) to Overweight from Equal Weight. Following their healthcare conference and management meetings, the firm sees increased visibility into revenues.
• Waddell & Reed (NYSE: WDR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) was lifted to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.

Today was an odd day as the market rose, but not for many of the reasons we might have thought about yesterday. The FOMC meeting hardly got any notice. Housing starts came in at a gain rather than at a drop, as was expected, and Producer Prices show almost no real signs of wholesale inflation. The other issue in today's rally is that it was not led by financial leaders. Technology enjoyed an up-day after getting a St. Patrick's Day memo and decided to show up in green. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 7,395.78 +178.81 (2.48%)
S&P 500 778.09 +24.20 (3.21%)
Nasdaq 1,462.11 +58.09 (4.14%)

Top Analyst Calls

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is recently trading at $5.40 in pre-open trading below its close of $6.12. AA announced a $1.1 billion common share and convertible debt offering. AA will reduce its quarterly dividend from 17 cents to 3 cents beginning in Q2 2009. Aluminum Futures are recently up 0.81% to $62.25 according to Bloomberg. AA April option implied volatility of 139 is above its 26-week average of 90, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

General Electric (NYSE: GE) closed at $9.66. GE is hosting a Capital Investor meeting on March 19. GE March 10 straddle is priced at 96 cents, April 10 straddle is at $1.13, June 10 straddle is at $3.19. April option implied volatility of 90 is above its 26-week average of 68, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Stocks were poised for a moderately higher open this morning, as investors try to continue last week's rally. This morning, investors will focus on data about inflation and the housing market.

In general, though, the mood has soured somewhat after Alcoa (NYSE: AA) slashed its dividend and gave a gloomy outlook Monday, American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) said Monday its credit card defaults and deliquencies have risen over the past three months, and Nokia (NYSE: NOK) announced layoffs Tuesday in response to lower demand.

• At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, an hour before the opening bell, February data for housing starts and building permits are due out. According to Briefing.com, economists expect housing starts have fallen further in February, as have building permits.
• At the same time, Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, is forecast to have risen 0.4% in February. Core PPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to be up 0.1%.
• The Federal Reserve also starts its two-day policy meeting today.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer identifies the eight Dow components that will become too cheap not to buy.

When I arrived at my worst-case view that the Dow could reach 5320, my first reaction wasn't, "Look out below." It was more like, "Wait a second, how much I would like to buy these stocks at those levels?" Then I started thinking, "What do I do if it gets there and I am not in? Will it stay down there? Is it right to avoid a market that's cut by almost two-thirds in such a short period of time when some companies with really good earnings power might be selling at prices that we might never see again?"

But which ones?