Look for Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to benefit from the the U.S./global economic recoveries, which is I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on August 17, 2009 at a price of $12.41.

Alcoa's revenue in FY2010 should increase 13-15%, assuming likely stabilization in the U.S. housing and auto sectors. Aluminum companies also should benefit from modestly higher aluminum prices next year.

Aloca (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season a couple of weeks ago, and option players are now bulled up and looking slightly longer-term. The near-the-money December 13 calls are active today, with nearly 8,000 contracts trading versus open interest of just 997.

One block of 4,450 contracts changed hands around 10:00 a.m., trading near the ask price at 69 cents per contract ($445,000 for the entire block). It is likely these were bought to open.

Also active in AA are the January 14 calls, where nearly 33,000 contracts have traded on open interest of 18,000. A couple of large blocks changed hands before 11:00 a.m., trading at the ask price as well, also indicative of buying.

While this isn't necessarily excessive volume for AA, it is notable that the shares have jumped nearly 8% today on little news, and this has spurred some call-buying activity right out of the gate. As the U.S. dollar has been gaining ground over the past few days, commodities have weakened. Today's stock and call-buying activity could be a sign that some investors are calling for a short-term bottom in the commodity group.

Beth works for The Options News Network (www.ONN.tv), which provides daily stock and options commentary. The above comments are not intended as trading advice.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you take your life into your own hands if you fade the opening in today's market.

A year ago with the futures up, all you could think of is how much you wanted to "fade" that opening, how great it would be just to lay out any shorts into strength. You could choose pretty much anything going into earnings season.

The techs? Last good quarter. The banks? A travesty. You didn't even know if the banks you are short would survive. The oils? Free fall. The metals? Amazing downward pressure coming from hedge fund redemptions. The insurers? Will they make it? Retail? The balance sheets looked terrible going into what would be a terrible holiday selling season. The autos and auto-related? Disaster.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported a surprise Q3 profit due to cost cutting; revenue topped estimates as well.
• Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) said a proposed offering of $250 million in notes could reduce earnings.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) earnings prospects garnered it an upgrade from one analyst.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) earnings prospects resulted in an upgrade from one analyst.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) lower Q4 earnings topped analysts' expectations, lifting shares.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) higher Q4 earnings beat analysts' estimates but sales were just OK.

U.S. stock futures declined Friday morning as bulls seemed ready to take a breather after the week's good run and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the unprecedented loose monetary policy will have to come to an end, but that interest rate will remain near zero for now.

On Thursday, major U.S. indexes flirted with 2009 highs after Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported better-than-expected earnings, department stores reported better-than-expected September sales and jobless claims registered a drop. Today, though, following the week's good run, the day could be quiet and more flat.

Today was one of those up-days that might be a disappointment to many bulls because the gap-ups were not met by follow-on buying throughout the day. A better weekly joblessness report may have been muted by Asian central banks intervening to protect the US Dollar.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,786.79 +61.21 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,065.31 +7.73 (0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,124.41 +14.08 (0.67%)

Top analyst upgrades and downgrades
Top market rumors
Top day trader alerts

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the upside surprise from this perennial laggard looks to give us a lift today.

It is a testament to how bad Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take) has been run that no one thought they could do well despite a dramatic increase in the price of aluminum from quarter to quarter. Think about it -- did anyone think that Alcoa could deliver, despite the fact that aluminum went from 67 cents a pound to 83 cents a pound, a jump of 24%?

I was dumbfounded myself to see them not disappoint. It's been since the late 1980s and early 1990s that this company has made a lot of money, and it almost never seemed to matter what happened with costs of alumina or energy input costs or labor costs, you knew they would get it wrong.

U.S. stock futures climbed Thursday morning, helped by a surprise profit from aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE: AA). Investors were encouraged by the news, hoping that it's a sign to come for the third quarter earnings season and that once again many companies will beat expectations when reporting earnings.

Despite hopes early Wednesday Wall Street was in for a third day of gains, stocks ended up mixed and basically flat. But since Alcoa's beat came after positive surprised from Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and Monsanto (NYSE: MON), stock market futures are pointing to a positively higher open.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) surprised the market this afternoon by posting its first quarterly profit of the year.

The company credited recent cost cutting measures as the main reason for its profit of $77 million during the quarter (75.8% lower than the same period last year), or 4 cents per share excluding certain items. This was a nice surprise to Wall Street, which had expected to see the company show a loss for the quarter of 9 cents per share.

U.S. stock futures were higher Tuesday morning, pointing to a second day of gains, as Australia became the first G-20 economy to raise interest rates, fueling optimism about the global economic recovery.

On Monday, U.S. stocks bounced back from a two-week selloff, with all three major indices up at least 1% ahead of the upcoming third quarter earnings season to be kicked Wednesday when Alcoa (NYSE: AA) -- the first of the Dow industrials -- reports.

No doubt, the biggest surprise this morning came when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rate quite unexpectedly by a quarter point to 3.25 percent from a 49-year low of 3 percent. With recent signs the Down Under economy was improving, this rate hike sent the Australian dollar soaring to a 14-month high against the U.S. dollar. While normally rate hikes depress stocks as they raise the cost of borrowing and doing business, in this case investors seem reassured by this as they interpret this more as a sign the recovery from the global slump is gaining momentum.

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off another earnings season this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for another net loss for the third quarter. Can we take that as a sign of things to come, or as a bellwether for the economy? Well, barring a big downside surprise, this will be the third narrower quarterly loss for Alcoa. But while Alcoa beat estimates in July, it missed them in April. Alcoa's shares, on the other hand, are up 145.6% since the March low, which is well more than twice as much either the Dow or the S&P 500.

During its third quarter, New York-based Alcoa continued restructuring efforts, remained a part of the DJIA Sustainability Index, and declared a quarterly dividend. It is expected to report a net loss of $0.12 per share for the three months that ended in September. That compares to a profit of $0.37 in the same period of last year. Third-quarter revenue is forecast to have fallen 38.3% to $4.5 billion. Analysts so far expect to see a profit in the fourth quarter, but not for the full year. Alcoa has missed earnings expectations in three of the past four quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 20.0%, again much better than the S&P 500. The First Call consensus recommendation is to hold AA; CNBC concurs that now is not the time to buy. At $12.82, shares are 30.0% higher than three months ago, but 33.4% lower than a year ago.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will be able to reach a settlement with the New York PSC Staff that will provide benefits to both ratepayers and shareholders. The firm raised its target on shares to $46 from $40.50.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect the company's balance sheet, industry leading position, and potential for accretive acquisitions. The firm raised its target on shares to $75 from $57.
• JPMorgan upgraded Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) to Overweight from Neutral to reflect valuation and industry data points that suggest a pick-up in discretionary spending. The firm has a $30 target on the stock.
• Alcoa (NYSE: AA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• East West Bancorp (NASDAQ: EWBC) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Bronco Drilling (NYSE: BDC) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.

Analyst upgrades:

• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC) and Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) to Buy from Hold on better demand trends as it believes overall enterprise IT spending is turning more positive. The firm raised its target on Computer Sciences to $62 from $54 and on Cognizant to $45 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded E-Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) to Buy from Hold as it believes loan less trends have improved and the company could potentially be acquired. Citi raised its target on shares to $2.30 from $1.50.
• Auriga upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to Buy from Hold as it believes consensus expectations for 2010 are too low, but admits the company's Q1 results could be fairly weak. Auriga believes Microsoft is coming up to its "most powerful product cycle in many years" and raised its price target on shares to $30 from $24.
• Motorola (NYSE: MOT) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Fidelity Southern (NASDAQ: LION) was upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at SunTrust.
• Sonoco Products (NYSE: SON) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the issuance of new common stock in exchange for outstanding preferred and trust preferred stock is a net positive. The firm has a $3.50 target on the stock.
• Merriman upgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Buy from Neutral as if finds the currrent valuation compelling and believes the company should directly benefit from improving IT budgets. The firm thinks fair value is in the $9.11-$11.13 range.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) to Buy from Hold after its proprietary survey indicated the company is well positioned longer term. The firm finds the valuation on shares attractive at current levels and raised its target price to $53 from $48.
• Taleo (NASDAQ: TLEO) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.
• Boardwalk Pipeline (BWP) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Lloyds Banking (NYSE: LYG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at RBS.

I'd say that Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is now at a level of relative safety. However, Alcoa's shares remain vulnerable to a 30-40% haircut at any time given the uncertainty regarding the U.S./global economic recovery.

Further, AA has a history of less-than-calming financial results, which will only add to the stock's volatility.