Can you hear me now? Well listen closely, Verizon Communications (VZ) is going to get a bounce from the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone in 2011. Nothing you don't already know. Is there a more sure thing in the coming year? Long term it will fade some, but in 2011 the pent up demand has to have a positive impact.
Communications: The telephone companies everywhere are going to have a good year. Verizon is a great stock for Roth IRA's, paying a 5.41% yield. The dilution of the iPhone market may hurt AT&T, Inc. (T) some, as VZ is helped, but it too is a good long term hold and pays an even higher yield at 5.76%.
If you want to diversify internationally there are multiple good choices and they pay even higher yields.
Companies on a shopping spree either feel their growth is confined or they are feeling flush. In the case of Caterpiller (CAT), which reported that it is going to buy Bucyrus for $8.6 billion, it is the latter. The company has had a terrific year in which it has seen a 76% increase in it's growth. This rapid increase in business has pushed the PEG ratio down to a low 0.86 with the stock trading near its 52- week high.
From what I can gather, the deal between CAT and Bucyrus has merit. Does that mean this is a good time to buy Caterpillar stock? I don't think so. More often than not, stocks trading near their highs will present better entry points with greater value to the more patient investor.
In recent discussions with some friends, one had bought Anglo American ADR (AAUKY) when I recommended it years ago, and the other thinking about what the current opportunity might be. It seemed time for an update.
I'm into Anglo for $9.80 a share and a spot check has it trading at $23.00 per share in morning trading; a nice 135% return. It was much easier to recommend the stock before. Now that AAUKY is hovering around it's 52-week high of $23.55, it's a tough call. It certainly is not a value play now.
I have always felt that for all the blabbing we do -- or blogging, in my case -- we should try as best we can to be accountable for our good and bad calls. This report is long overdue, but I will post it anyway since all of my past year's picks and results have been made public.
The market was very harsh in the early part of 2009, filling investors fear and trepidation, and sinking to a March 9, 2009 bottom. Perhaps some of the bleeding has stopped, but the economy has not healed as bears and bulls seem to carry the day, or every other day.
ThinkEquity upgraded Yahoo! (YHOO) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, checks that indicate Q2 display/search improvement, search stabilization, improved cost structure, and share repurchases.
Societe Generale upgraded Roche Holding (RHHBY) to Buy from Hold based on expectations Avastin will be approved in breast cancer, despite negative FDA briefing documents.
FBR Capital upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and positive checks that indicate powerline networking chips are gaining traction in China. The firm has a $43 price target on the stock.
Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
Ultimate Software (ULTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.
Liberty Property Trust (LRY) was upgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Analyst downgrades:
Auriga downgraded ADC Telecomm (ADCT) to Hold from Buy following the company's merger announcement with Tyco Electronics (TEL).
TD Newcrest expects Manulife's (MFC) Q2 loss to be worse than expected due to the impact from lower interest rates. The firm cut shares to Hold from Buy.
Goldman downgraded Perrigo (PRGO) to Sell from Neutral and lowered its target to $50 from $61. The firm cites relative valuation for the downgrade. Target to $50 from $61.
F5 Networks (FFIV) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord.
Anglo American (AAUKY) and BHP Billiton (BHP) were downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Analyst initiations:
QKL Stores (QKLS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $7 price target at Global Hunter.
Rodman & Renshaw started Rick's Cabaret (RICK) with an Outperform rating.
Is it time to take a bite out of Apple, Inc (AAPL) or leave it on the vine? After reviewing the current list by examining the stock yields and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) we will take a look at Apple for 2010.
Yesterday I dropped two stocks, but the list is still too long. In the coming weeks there will be more cuts and if I find anything of more value perhaps there will be something new.
Today it's time to do some trimming of the fourteen stocks and four options on the contenders list. This review will prioritize the companies by price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S) and return-on-equity (ROE). This does not preclude more possible stocks being added and the final list will not be done until the end of the month.
We will also compare recent stock prices to three-year highs to give us a relative idea where the stock floated in rosier times.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Last week shareholders were surprised to find that Anglo American (OTC: AAUKY) had moved from the Nasdaq to the OTC "pink sheets" with no press release, news or explanation on the company website (see AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't).
After a few inquiries to the company, I received notice that the site had been updated with a full explanation. What I learned is that the Nasdaq listing was not done by Anglo but by several banks that held unsponsored ADR shares and were trading the stock.
Finally I was able to find the smallest crumb of news regarding Anglo American's (OTC: AAUKY) move from the NASDAQ to the over-the-counter (OTC) exchange often referred to as the "pink sheets."
After searching all day yesterday under every rock I could find for an answer to the puzzle and coming up empty, I concluded that this mystery could only be the work of Sherlock Holmes's evil and brilliant nemesis Professor Moriarty. And fitting to the good professor's habit of only leaving the most meager of clues, the following is all I could find to date:
This morning I looked up Anglo American ADR and could not find it. What I found was: "No listing under this symbol". I checked another financial site and nothing. I check the company web site and I found under investor information USD NASDAQ 0.00. Now it was getting very strange.
There was no news anywhere, how could that be?
It turns out that the company is now listed on the "pink sheets", "over the counter" as Anglo American PLC ADS (OTC: AAUKY). There was no news Friday, no news over the weekend, no news this morning, no information under the old symbol, the new symbol or the web site, and no broker knew why there was a change, just that it happened.
Where on earth can you buy things on sale for less than bargain prices?
Imagine that you were shopping for a nice shirt, or watch, or bicycle and you have been tracking the prices all year (or ten) and the thing finally goes on sale. You drive to the store and while you are in transit, unknown to you, the store manager puts a half price sticker on the item. You would be overjoyed with glee! To buy something at half the price you already thought was a bargain -- that would be amazing!
The fact is that this year the stock market has provided that opportunity. This year for the first time in most of our lives, you were able to do that to a degree that we have not witnessed before and have only read about.
In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.
In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.
I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.
The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.