Is the world running on stimulus money or is there real demand for basic commodities?

What has been happening is that underdeveloped countries have been using stimulus money to stockpile raw commodities. Now there is a surplus. This, in turn, has led to a fall-off in commodity prices.

Why are corn futures down so much? It seems that two factors converged to drive the price down by 49 cents to $3.76 per bushel this week: The first is supply and the second is reduced shipment.

On the supply side, the Department of Agriculture issued its report of crop production on January 12. The nation's harvest was estimated to be 13.151 billion bushels, up 8.8% from a year ago. And that's not all, global supplies will add to the pricing pressure as global supplies of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans are expected to be up 8.3%, to the highest level since 2002.

Prices could drop even further after the Brazil and Argentina harvests, due to start next month.

If you were long the grain market going into this morning, you are taking a beating. The US has a record corn crop that drove prices down the 30 cent per bushel limit. Wheat and soybeans followed suit.

March corn futures fell 30 cents to $3.925 per bushel as of 9:36 am. (each 1 cent equals $50.00) March soybeans fell 37.5 cents to $9.73 per bushel and March wheat fell 35.5 cents to $5.37 per bushel.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Whenever inflation heats up, there's no better place to park your cash than in tangible commodities," says Nathan Slaughter.

In his The ETF Authority, he noes "Our favorite play on this sector is Market Vectors Hard Asset Producers (HAP), an ETF whose 300-stock portfolio provides one-stop shopping for six distinct commodity sub-sectors."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"The 2010 global recovery brings opportunity in agriculture commodities," says fund expert Doug Fabian, who turns to the "soft ag" sector for his top investment idea for the coming year.

In his The ETF Trader, the advisor looks to a leveraged exchange-traded note -- the DB Agriculture Double Long ETN (DAG). Here's his review.

Shares of Mosaic Company (MOS) rallied to a new 52-week high today, topping out at $63.83 in intraday action. The stock seems to be enjoying a halo lift after sector peer Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (POT) was upgraded, but the spotlight will turn to Mosaic after today's closing bell, when the company is slated to unveil its fiscal second-quarter earnings.

Mosaic's performance on the earnings front has been mixed, with the fertilizer firm falling short of analysts' consensus expectations during three of the past four reporting periods. Ahead of tonight's release, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a second-quarter profit of 35 cents per share, on average, down from Mosaic's year-ago profit of $1.12 per share. Sales are expected to ring in at $1.68 billion.

The orange crop in Florida is especially sensitive to freezing temperatures. Cold air masses have been flowing down through the U.S. into Florida with no warm air buffers to stop them. These cold air masses are scheduled to last throughout the week.

The Florida Citrus Mutual trade association warned growers on Sunday that an overnight freeze could damage crops. It said: "We could have cold or borderline temperatures each night over the next week. It'll be an anxious seven days for us."

We are back riding the bull today in commodities. The dollar is down with the March futures contract trading at 77.89, down 0.33.

Crude oil is trading at a high of $81.16 per barrel in the February West Texas contract, up $1.64. Brent crude is up $1.70 to $77.63 per barrel.

The metals are higher with LME (London Metals Exchange) copper up 1.3% to $7,525 per ton, triggered by a strike at a copper mine in northern Chile.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Diamond Foods (DMND), a player in nuts and pop corn, is our top pick for 2010," says Sy Harding.

In his The Long & Short Stock Advisor, he explains, "The company seems to have had no problems with the recession or slow economy."

How hungry are you? The world is becoming hungrier all the time and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) seeks to fill that need.

It is one of the world's largest processors of oilseeds, corn, and wheat. It turns corn into syrups, sweeteners, citric and lactic acids, and ethanol to fill your tank too. ADM also produces wheat flour for bakeries and pasta makers; cocoa and chocolate products for confectioners; animal-feed ingredients for farmers, and malt for brewers. It operates one of the world's largest crop origination and transportation networks, through which it connects crops and their markets across the globe.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"My definition of safe is to avoid cyclical companies that can be derailed by unexpected economic events or a sudden change in Fed policy," says dividend expert Kelley Wright.

In Investment Quality Trends, he suggests, "Additional requirements are a long history of increased earnings and dividends, broad institutional sponsorship, and ample outstanding shares for trading liquidity. One such company that fits that bill is Altria Group (MO), my top pick for 2010."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"With the worlds largest and a quickly growing population of 1.3 billion people, China has many mouths to feed," observes small-cap specialist Ian Wyatt.

In his Small Cap Investor Pro, he explains, "One of my favorite China small cap stocks is AgFeed Industries Inc. (FEED), a hog feed and breeding company."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"The Energy Security Act of 2007 has received little investor attention; however, it contains provisions that are likely to lead to significant returns for investors," suggests Andy Obermueller.

In his Government-Driven Investing, he notes, "The law codifies the federal production targets for biofuel, which we believe presents a real opportunity for Vernenium (VRNM)."

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

"Monsanto (MON) is my top investment idea for 2010," says Sy Harding, an advisor well-known for his seasonal timing strategies.

In his Street Smart Report, he observes, "Monsanto is the world's leading provider of biotech-advanced seeds and agricultural products for growers; seeds for corn, soybeans, cotton, fruit, and vegetables, which are produced by its genomics division."

Just call December a break-out month for Syngenta Ag (SYT), and that's a major reason why I'm reiterating my buy rating for the company's shares, first recommended on June 16, 2009, at a price of $47.28.

Syngenta's stock did revisit and break through the psychologically-significant $50 level and shortly later removed a possible double-top -- a bearish pattern, from a technical analysis standpoint.