MOST NOTEWORTHY: SunPower, Evergreen Solar and Abbott Lab were today's noteworthy initiations:
Citigroup believes SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) is faced with high cell production costs, its silicon cost and installation cost advantages are increasingly commoditized and finds the risk/reward even at current levels. Shares were initiated with a Hold rating and $105 target.
Citigroup believes Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) faces significant financing requirements over the next few years, making it difficult to see a sustained period of EPS growth beyond the $1 range. The firm sees downside to $5/share. Shares were assumed with a Sell rating and $8 target.
UBS started Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) with a Buy rating and $61 target. The firm is positive on Humira potential growth and expects Xience to drive vascular operating margins to positive.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Educational, Sonus Networks and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on improving student enrollment growth and valuation.
Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong AT&T (NYSE: T) outlook and near-term upside potential from Japan. They believe shares can trade towards the $5-$6 range.
Bernstein raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's diversification position it well to withstand future generic expiries.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman Sachs added Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to its Conviction Buy List.
Credit Suisse upgraded Imperial Tobacco (NYSE: ITY) to Outperform from Neutral.
It's a fairly quiet day in analyst land as far as the most active stocks are concerned, despite there being many movers today. Here is a brief snapshot of some of the key calls today:
Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT) started as Buy at UBS. DRS Tech (NYSE: DRS) cut to Neutral at UBS; cut to market perform at FBR.
FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL) Raised to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; new price target $42.00 from $35.00.
After hitting a one-year high of $747.24 in November, the stock hit a one-year low of $412.11 in March. GOOG opened this morning at $586.20. So far today the stock has hit a low of $582.05 and a high of $589.30. As of 12:20, GOOG is trading at $585.23, up 6.23 (1.1%). The chart for GOOG looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $540 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just one week as long as GOOG is above $540 at May expiration next Friday. Google would have to fall by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
GOOG hasn't been below $540 since rising sharply in April and has shown support around $579 recently. This trade could be risky if the economy continues to weaken and the stock reverses course, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $540, where it found some support after its initial climb after its last earnings release.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Learning Tree, Shengdatech and Cepheid were today's noteworthy initiations:
B. Riley initiated Learning Tree (NASDAQ:LTRE) with a Buy rating and $24 target. The firm believes investors have an opportunity to invest in a compelling revenue growth/margin expansion story at reasonable multiples with the stock off recent highs.
Merriman started Shengda Tech (NASDAQ:SDTH) with a Buy rating and points to the company's growing nano-particle business and the vast market expansion opportunities associated with this business.
Stephens believes Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) possesses a best-in-class platform for molecular diagnostic testing with a virtual monopoly in the molecular point of care market; shares were assumed with an Overweight rating and $32 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Visa (NYSE:V) was started at Morgan Keegan with a Market Perform rating.
Morgan Stanley initiated Dr. Pepper Snapple (N YSE:DPS) with an Equal Weight rating and $30 target.
Goldman initiated Kraft Foods (NYSE:KFT) with a Neutral rating.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Chelsea Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CHTP) to Perform from Outperform after their survey suggested physicians believe currently available generic treatments are adequate in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, which could impact the company's lead drug Droxidopa.
Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup on valuation, as they estimate fair value at $13.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman downgraded Kellogg (NYSE:K) to Neutral from Buy and Hershey Foods (NYSE:HSY) to Sell from Neutral.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: National Financial Partners, Blackbaud and Trans World were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of National Financial Partners (NYSE:NFP) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the recent weakness is overdone. Citigroup also added the stock to their Top Picks Live list.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Blackbaud (NASDAQ:BLKB) to Hold from Underperform on valuation, as they believe management did the right thing by lowering guidance while buying back stock more aggressively.
B. Riley lifted Trans World (NASDAQ:TWMC) to Buy from Neutral as they believe the company could ultimately go private should credit conditions improve
OTHER UPGRADES:
Keefe Bruyette raised Anworth Mortgage (NYSE:ANH) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Unit Corp (NYSE:UNT) was upgraded at Raymond James to Outperform from Market Perform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Georgia Gulf, Sohu.com and I-flow were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC) to Sell from Hold to reflect the deteriorating fundamentals in North American housing, and their belief that the company is increasingly likely to break its debt covenant ratio.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) to Hold from Buy on valuation and expects 2009 growth to be modest.
Piper cut I-Flow (NASDAQ: IFLO) to Sell from Neutral following the weak Q1 report and guidance.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Morgan Stanley downgraded Coca-Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Goldman removed Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) from its Conviction Buy List.
Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
JP Morgan lowered PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) to Underweight from Neutral.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast, Time Warner Cable, YRC Worldwide and Syniverse were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Soleil upgraded shares of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) to Buy from Hold on improving fundamentals, as they believe the economic stimulus package should drive consumer demand in 2H08.
Stephens upgraded shares of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Overweight from Underweight as they believe management is making meaningful changes.
Syniverse (NYSE: SVR) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan. The firm upgraded shares based on accelerating organic growth from consumer wireless data usage.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Deutsche Bank upgraded NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Hold.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google, Boyd Gaming and Microsoft were today's noteworthy initiations:
Kaufman Bros. believes Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) has "only begun to scratch the surface" of its local market opportunity. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $680 target.
Banc of America believes Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD) will face financing challenges with its Echelon resort, and initiated shares with a Sell rating and $14 target.
Lehman reinstated Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) with an Equal Weight rating and $34 target based on peaking Vista/Office 2007 cycles, uncertain online strategy, and increased investment.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Goldman started AON Corp. (NYSE: AOC) with a Neutral rating.
Broadpoint initiated Covanta (NYSE: CVA) with a Buy rating and $32 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: StoneMor Partners, Suntech Power and Tesoro were today's noteworthy initiations:
Morgan Keegan initiated StoneMor Partners (NASDAQ: STON) with a Market Perform rating. The firm has a low level of confidence in STON's financial projections given its vulnerability to changes in state and local regulations, and financial reporting complexities.
Jesup & Lamont initiated Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) with a Buy based on the company's leading position in solar PV, industry growth and polysilicon supply agreements in place.
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was assumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan. The firm expects the West Coast margins to remain weak given the decline in the gasoline demand and capacity increases of the majors.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
RBC Capital initiated Agrium (NYSE: AGU) with an Outperform rating and $115 target.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sunoco, Ryanair and HSBC Holdings were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) to Underweight from Neutral citing expected margin pressure due to high leverage to sweet crude. Goldman also downgraded shares of Sunoco to Neutral from Buy.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the European airlines sector will trade well below book value until the companies deal with higher oil prices.
UBS cut HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the potential for higher losses at the company's household unit and weak performance at its U.S. bank.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Broadpoint lowered MTS Medication (NYSE: MPP) to Neutral from Strong Buy.
HSBC cut Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) to Neutral from Overweight.
Goldman downgraded CNH Global (NYSE: CNH) to Neutral from Buy and PetroChina (PTR) to Sell from Buy.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Citizens Republic Bancorp, Hess Corp and Sanderson Farms were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Citizens Republic Bancorp (NASDAQ: CRBC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following yesterday's sell-off, which they attribute in part to its removal from the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index. Shares were also raised to OUtperform from Perform at Oppenheimer following the sell-off.
Goldman upgraded Hess (NYSE: HES) to Buy from Neutral citing the company's leverage to higher oil prices. The firm said oil is likely to hit $150-$200/bbl in the next 6-24 months.
Stephens upgraded shares of Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they expect industry fundamentals to improve in FY09.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Baird raised Stellent (NASDAQ: STEL) to OUtperform from Neutral.
Friedman Billings upgraded Preferred Bank (NASDAQ: PFBC) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Agco (NYSE: AG) was upgraded at Goldman to Buy from Neutral.
Lehman upgraded SLM Corp (NYSE: SLM) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
As if there were not plenty to worry about, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is forecasting oil prices to hit $150 to $200 in the next six months to two years. According toBloomberg, a note from one the of the bank's analysts said:``The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months, though predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices as well as the remaining duration of the upcycle remains a major uncertainty."'
Observers do not need help from Goldman to make the case. Recent problems with production in Nigeria and political unrest in the Middle East have already moved oil above $120. That situations could continue and move into other unstable countries such as Venezuela.
The theory that a slowdown in the global economy would drop oil prices has not borne out. China, India, and other major developing nations continue to push demand higher. Even in the US where gas prices are now over $3.50, consumers have not cut back use enough to move pricing down.
Some new fields will come online. Brazil just made a major discovery off its Atlantic coast, but production will not be up and running there for several years. During that time, exports from large producers like Mexico and Russia will continue to fall due to aging of their fields.
Nuclear power looks better every day.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.