We are still seeing mixed economic reports, something which may become the norm for early in 2009. Today was also a fairly unsurprising give-back day when you consider just how much stocks closed up yesterday. Home sales data was disappointing, while there were gains in factory orders. Even today's auto data was mixed despite a clear win outlined below. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the stocks like to move higher along well-worn paths.
With the usual suspects rallying -- gold and oil -- it's important to remember how the oil rallies have unfolded in the past. You have to be able to recall the oil pecking order of the petroleum complex ramp.
First to move in the drilling complex is Transocean (RIG) (Cramer's Take), the wildest trader in the group. Then it is National Oilwell Varco (NOV) (Cramer's Take). Forget that both of these are the least affected by the day-to-day price of oil. The market's real stupid on these oil moves, and that's what happens. On the oil side it is Occidental (OXY) (Cramer's Take), which at least is closely correlated and can have a big move throughout the day.
Is it time to take a bite out of Apple, Inc (AAPL) or leave it on the vine? After reviewing the current list by examining the stock yields and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) we will take a look at Apple for 2010.
Yesterday I dropped two stocks, but the list is still too long. In the coming weeks there will be more cuts and if I find anything of more value perhaps there will be something new.
Today it's time to do some trimming of the fourteen stocks and four options on the contenders list. This review will prioritize the companies by price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S) and return-on-equity (ROE). This does not preclude more possible stocks being added and the final list will not be done until the end of the month.
We will also compare recent stock prices to three-year highs to give us a relative idea where the stock floated in rosier times.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the biggest companies can lobby their way to huge profits.
Anyone serious about climate change knows that coal is the worst enemy of the environment. We can have all of the electric cars we want, if they are hooked into a coal-based utility system then the gains are irrelevant. We can also be sure that while all sorts of companies, like the General Electrics (GE) (Cramer's Take) and Cokes (KO) (Cramer's Take) and Nikes (NKE) (Cramer's Take) and Nestles, support climate control, they are not equal to one Southern Company (SO) (Cramer's Take), which is an important coal-burning company and a huge lobbyist for the coal industry.
Our nation has a two-pronged climate philosophy: pushes on conservation and on renewables. Neither is enough to get us through the next 10 years; we can't produce enough renewable energy at a cheap price and we can't caulk our way out of the jam.
So much for oil plummeting to $30 per barrel on a supply glut. The price of oil, the world's most vital commodity, is currently largely divorced from supply/demand fundamentals, and that's one reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for oil/natural gas company Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009. at a price of $43.55. If you bought APC in May, you're up about 45%.
Look for APC to post a 2% to 4% production increase in FY2009, followed by a 4% to 5% rise in FY2010. Further, institutional investors are looking past this year's likely bottom-line loss, and toward better quarters in FY2010 -- which is a major reason Anadarko's stock is up substantially since May.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
This year I bought all of my picks so that I would be riding in the same ship as anyone that might have considered my suggestions.
I will be breaking up my potential picks into three categories; contender, on the fence, and out of the running, until I finalize the list in the last week of the year.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction.
During this period Washington has taken charge of the auto industry and helped prop it up with the "cash-for-clunkers" program. They continue to subsidize the real estate market with first-time home buyers incentives, and very low interest rates. The banks are being refueled by the Federal Reserve with interest rates as low as zero, while all the time currency stability has been sacrificed. This has driven gold prices to new highs.
This is the third review of my 2009 stock picks through September 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). This years picks have annihilated index comparisons, so much so that I must attribute some of my good fortune to luck. However, I do believe the original reasoning was sound and the outlier nature of the gains certainly a result of an oversold market living in fear.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC - option chain) stock is trading lower today the company said a well off the coast of the Ivory Coast revealed no hydrocarbons. APC had drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,900 feet in about 6,100 feet of water. Even a lift in crude oil prices to another year high is not enough to keep APC from falling 5% on this news. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on APC.
This morning, APC opened at $65.58. So far today the stock has hit a high of $67.20 and a low of $64.85. As of 11:45, APC is trading at $65.62, down $3.74 (-5.4%). The chart for APC looks neutral and S&P gives APC a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.
Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.
There are analysts and oil gurus who argue that $30 per barrel oil is possible if the U.S./global economic recoveries stall.
$30 oil? Don't count on it, which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009 at a price of $43.55.
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) closed at $11.74. YGE is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. YGE August 12 straddle is priced at $1.65, September 12 straddle is priced at $2.90. YGE September option implied volatility of 100 is above its 26-week average of 91, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $50.46. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.61% to $68.70 according to Bloomberg. APC September option implied volatility is at 40, November is at 41; below its 26-week average of 51, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.
In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.
I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.
Yesterday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch decided to up its rating on Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to "buy" from "neutral" and raised the company's price target to $57 per share from $52 per share. The main reason for the upgrade was the company's success in raising $1.3 billion in a stock offering.
In my opinion, this is a rather bold move, mainly based on the target price for the stock. Perhaps the company does have a solid balance sheet, but it also faces some rather staunch resistance. The stock is hovering in the $41 region and is positioned beneath its 10-, 20-, and 50-unit weekly and monthly moving averages.
We are still seeing mixed economic reports, something which may become the norm for early in 2009. Today was also a fairly unsurprising give-back day when you consider just how much stocks closed up yesterday. Home sales data was disappointing, while there were gains in factory orders. Even today's auto data was mixed despite a clear win outlined below. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Is it time to take a bite out of Apple, Inc (AAPL) or leave it on the vine? After reviewing the current list by examining the stock yields and price-to-cash flow (P/CF) we will take a look at Apple for 2010.
Today it's time to do some trimming of the fourteen stocks and four options on the contenders list. This review will prioritize the companies by price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S) and return-on-equity (ROE). This does not preclude more possible stocks being added and the final list will not be done until the end of the month.
So much for oil plummeting to $30 per barrel on a supply glut. The price of oil, the world's most vital commodity, is currently largely divorced from supply/demand fundamentals, and that's one reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for oil/natural gas company Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009. at a price of $43.55. If you bought APC in May, you're up about 45%.
There are only seven weeks left in the year, so it is time to start thinking about 2010. If you have been keeping up with my 2009 picks (see: Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review ) than you would be aware that the group is up 40% through the third quarter.
The market continues to befuddle the bears as the third quarter earnings and stock prices continued to move in a positive direction. 
Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC - option chain) stock is trading lower today the company said a well off the coast of the Ivory Coast revealed no hydrocarbons. APC had drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,900 feet in about 6,100 feet of water. Even a lift in crude oil prices to another year high is not enough to keep APC from falling 5% on this news. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on APC.
Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.
There are analysts and oil gurus who argue that $30 per barrel oil is possible if the U.S./global economic recoveries stall.
Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE) closed at $11.74. YGE is scheduled to report Q2 EPS today. YGE August 12 straddle is priced at $1.65, September 12 straddle is priced at $2.90. YGE September option implied volatility of 100 is above its 26-week average of 91, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement. 
In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.
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