This post is part of a series on celebrity spokespeople who ended up doing serious harm to the brands they were hired to promote, or vice versa. See how we rank the 20 top spokesperson fiascos.
In 1987, Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) was featuring renown musicians such as Stevie Winwood and Phil Collins in a "The Night Belongs to Michelob" ad campaign. I'm sure the ad hacks in charge thought they'd had a stroke of genius when they conceived of using Eric "Slowhand" Clapton, performing his hit "After Midnight", as part of the series. 1 a.m., guitar god, and Michelob; seems like a natural, right?
I can't help but think that someone should have checked on Clapton's habits before launching the ad. Having fought well-publicized heroin addiction and a taste for cocaine, Clapton revealed to Rolling Stone that at the time of the ad's release he was in a detox facility. Battling alcoholism. His nights belonged to imaginary snakes rather than dirty-dancing runway models.
My suggestion? I'd steer clear of junkies as spokespersons, unless I was selling needles, smack or size 0 dresses. The image of spokespeople puking their guts out doesn't make me yearn for a beer.
Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) reported preliminary Q1 earnings earlier in the week, and from a shareholder's perspective, they were great. These results are for Activision itself, and do not take into account the effect of the merger with Vivendi Games.
OK, consider the following. Management had previously thought that Q1 would see revenues of about $500 million. The game publisher should actually deliver around $650 million on the top line. And in terms of earnings per diluted share, Activision should do at least $0.16. Previously, the call was for $0.04 per diluted share. Activision obliterated its own projections, and one has to wonder when the momentum is going to stop.
I hope it never does, of course, since I own shares of the company. Competitors such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) are doing everything they can to keep up. Their stocks certainly aren't near 52-week highs, and in the case of EA, a takeover of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) seems to be the biggest priority in terms of counteracting the Activision Blizzard juggernaut. Now, in terms of drivers for the quarter, Activision benefited from Guitar Hero and, believe it or not, a game based on DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. In fact, the Panda title was mentioned first in terms of drivers. This shows that, even though Activision has some awesome intellectual properties of its own, it still knows how to derive value from investments in licensed properties.
Sorry, Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE), but your problems just got worse. According to a Wall Street Journal (subscription required) piece, sources say that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) intends on executing a price reduction for its Xbox 360 unit that is packaged with a 20-gigabyte hard drive. It now costs $349. The new price will be $299 sometime soon.
This is not good at all for the PlayStation 3 system. It's expensive, it isn't as popular, and it would be very difficult for Sony to answer this move by Microsoft with a price reduction of its own. Gamers can get the PlayStation 3 for as low as $399, but that's a far cry from $299 in an economy that is tanking thanks to energy costs and financial-sector issues. The negative wealth effect is on, my friends, and it's only going to get worse. I recently wrote about Sony and how the company has lost a ton of money with PlayStation 3. Since the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3 are considered equals in the minds of many not-so-hardcore gamers, the price reduction is going to have an effect. Of course, where does this leave Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) and its popular Wii console? Well, the Wii should be fine for now. People who buy the Wii are usually more casual in terms of gaming, so the Xbox 360 price cut most likely will hurt Sony. However, when there is eventual parity between the price of a Wii and the price of a high-end system, then Nintendo probably will see some sort of effect.
Where does this leave investors? Well, for my money, I think it leaves a best-of-breed publisher like Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) in a great spot. A higher number of Xbox 360s in homes means more opportunities to sell Guitar Hero units. As for Sony and its stock, investors should avoid it, in my opinion.
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
Just as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) releases its new iPhone 3G to consumers today, the deal for Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVID) has been finalized and rumors emerged that the combined game maker could create a digital music store to service its series of Guitar Hero games and challenge iTunes. The Financial Times reported Thursday that the company has a new service in the works as part of a "natural evolution" of the series and looks at Guitar Hero to become a "credible alternative to iTunes" via a majority ownership by Vivendi, which also owns the Universal Music Group.
The development of an online music store from the makers of Guitar Hero and World of Warcraft would be a profitable development for music publishers and investors, since downloadable content rakes in more money than simply offering music on game discs, according to a follow-up by Billboard on Friday. Part of this is due to continued spin-off games, especially the Guitar Hero franchise which saw Guitar Hero: Aerosmith and Guitar Hero: On Tour released in June. The fourth game in the main series is also due this fall and a Metallica-based game for next year.
Unfortunately, while any new music based digital store might offer a viable and intriguing challenge to Apple's iTunes Store, to date it still remains the industry leader despite previous attempts to dethrone it. No matter how much the music industry and other retailers dislike iTunes and Apple's hold on music and other downloadable media, the company still manages to maintain positive consumer relationships. This was made obvious today by the commotion over the new iPhone, which saw another price drop and technological advance.
Activision closed on its transaction with Vivendi Games Thursday and officially became Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVID), according to an article at SmartMoney.com. And I am pretty excited at the prospects for the new business (I am a shareholder). It's going to be a tough competitor against Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO). (Of course, the latter two might merge at some point.)
Activision is riding high with its Guitar Hero franchise, and Vivendi Games brings an incredible asset to the table in the form of online gaming sensation World of Warcraft. I can't say I know much about World of Warcraft the game itself, but I know it has a huge following. What else do I need to know, right? For 2009, management at Activision Blizzard expects pro-forma operating income of over $1 billion and perhaps $1.20 or more in terms of earnings per share. That puts the stock, which rose over 5% on Thursday and closed with a price of $31.77 per share, with a P/E ratio a little over 26. That isn't too bad a valuation considering the growth potential. And when the holiday season comes around, I'm sure people will still be buying the publisher's software for gifts, recession or not. Whether it's the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3, the Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360, or the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii, gamers will be buying the company's products for these platforms in droves.
The stock has retreated from the highs it reached back in June when I wrote about it, but I am still bullish on the thesis here. Activision Blizzard should do really well, but with the markets in turmoil, you can probably wait for a pullback before buying.
Disclosure: I own Activision Blizzard; positions can change at any time.
Billboard reported Monday that MTV Games, a division of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), will release the second installment of the popular Rock Band game this September. Rock Band first came out late last year in direct competition with Activision Inc.'s (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero franchise, but where Guitar Hero only offers guitar simulated play, Rock Band offers a wide range of instruments and vocal game play. Rock Band also features an online store where users can download additional tracks for the game.
Rock Band 2 will be released at a time when a number of other music-related games, and according to MTV Games the game will feature "new and 'improved' drum and guitar controllers, a larger soundtrack, and new online modes and customization options." Additionally, all previous controllers and downloaded songs will also be compatible with the new game, so players will not lose those features or be required to buy new input devices. The game will initially only be available on Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 platform but will expand to other systems by the end of the year.
Rock Band and Guitar Hero alike have revolutionized many listeners' interface with the music they love, simply because it expands the "play-ability" of many users who may not have ever picked up or tried to play actual instruments. Those listeners aren't lazy by any means, but these two game franchises expand the experience of playing music in a way that has never been possible before.
The Financial Timesreported last week that representatives for The Beatles, Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI), and MTV Games, a division of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA), are in talks about developing Beatles-themed video game versions of Guitar Hero and Rock Band "in a move that could pave the way for a broader licensing of the Fab Four's catalog." Although the final deal would eventually be worth several million dollars, it would have to win over both Apple Corps and the EMI Group, the two companies that oversee the band's business interests and the master recordings.
The Beatles have been one of the major artists to resist any move into the digital world, but if such a deal were to occur it would likely happen simultaneously with any move by The Beatles into digital stores and the digital market. In the past year and a half, numerous rumors have appeared that cited 2008 as the year that would see the move, including comments made by Olivia Harrison, George Harrison's widow. Unfortunately, no such appearance by the band into stores like Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes or Amazon.com Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN) MP3 Store has happened even with a new management team led by former Sony BMG executive Jeff Jones.
Any deal would send a massive shockwave through the music industry and no doubt come with numerous marketing and advertising techniques that have become popular and successful in recent years. Although many Beatles purists and fans might be put off by an iTunes-themed commercial featuring The Beatles and the band's music, the exposure provided by such a method would increase awareness of the band to younger and newer audiences.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Symantec, Cardinal Financial and BP Plc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
ThinkPanmure upgraded Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) to Buy from Accumulate based on improved execution, stable growth in core business, and ramping competitive position in some high-growth businesses.
Baird upgraded Cardinal Financial (NASDAQ:CFNL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, the company's favorable credit risk profile in Northern Virginia, and its excess capital position.
Societe Generale raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Hold from Sell as it believes the bad news is priced into shares and earnings could be better than expected.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Underperform.
Jefferies lifted Hunsman (NYSE: HUN) to Hold from Underperform.
Spurred by a near epidemic occurrence of brain-degenerating conditions as we age, people of all ages and backgrounds are stepping up their personal efforts to improve and maintain their brain health. According to a story in USA Today, sales of brain fitness software reached nearly $230 million in 2007. USA Today stated, "SharpBrains, (a market research firm) estimates the brain fitness software market will reach $2 billion in 2015 in the United States."
Prudent investment strategy might include a speculative foray into this popular and growing field. In light of this, you may wish to pay heed to blogger Steven Mallas, and read his take on Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI).
First on the list for brain maintenance is physical activity, which probably accounts for the outstanding sales of Nintendo's Wii Fit. from Nintendo Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Active lives promote healthy blood circulation, which helps to feed steady amounts of oxygen to the hungry brain. Good hard work, cardiovascular exercise and even regular sexual activity can all help to keep your heart pumping adequate levels of oxygen into your brain.
At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.
Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.
I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.
Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game stole the number-one position on the software sales chart for May, according to data from market research firm NPD. It sold over 1.3 million copies last month, and it has moved over 4 million since it hit the street. I figured Take-Two would be taking the top slot here, but the big question on my mind pertained to how Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system would do in May. After all, the fad has to wear out at some point, right? At some magical juncture, either Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 will displace the Wii and become the top-selling system of the month.
Well, that hasn't happened yet. The Wii sold the most, moving 675,000 systems. That was more than three times the amount of consoles sold by PlayStation 3. And as for the Xbox 360, that came in dead last, moving only 187,000 units. All told, total video-game sales, including hardware and games, increased 37% year-over-year. Yep, video games are still hot.
I'm going to predict that the Wii Fit will be the top-selling game package for the month of June. This thing is flying off the shelves in my area, even at $90 (apparently, high fuel costs aren't hurting Nintendo's clientele). Does that mean that Nintendo might make for a good short-term trade? Maybe, but I'd prefer buying it safely below $60 per share. As of this writing, it's trading well above $60 per share. I continue to hold Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) as my play on video games, and will be keeping Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) in the back of my mind as August approaches, since that will be when the new Madden game arrives in stores. Not sure if that's worthy of a trade yet.
Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.
The next installment of Activision, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero franchise, Guitar Hero: Aerosmith, is coming out this month, but that has not stopped rumors about future installments, namely one based on the music and career of Metallica. No official announcement from Activision has been made, but Billboard cites a recent SEC filing and a Gamespot post that fuels the rumor. According to Gamespot, the new game is the second rumored title relating to Metallica, a vehicle-based shooting game was announced and canceled a few years ago.
Guitar Hero 4, now known as Guitar Hero: On Tour, is expected for release later this year, but if speculation is correct then a Metallica-based game could see release next summer similar to the release schedule for the Aerosmith version. On Tour will feature a full compliment of instruments like the Rock Band game. Guitar Hero: Aerosmith follows the career of the band from their beginnings in Boston and uses the band's music prominently, "along with a smattering of songs from bands that Aerosmith wanted included." Aerosmith appears in the game as motion-captured animated versions of themselves.
Like Aerosmith, a Metallica-based game would provide a lengthy career storyline to follow, as well as numerous songs that have remained a staple of the band's live acts over the years. It would also present an interesting case to examine success with Metallica since the band seems doomed forever due to band member's stances on illegal music trading and Napster in the late 1990s. Not that the band does not have a large and loyal fan base, but the lasting stigma from that debacle has not abated in the last few years.
Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) doesn't want to let Rock Band have all the fun. According to Reuters, Activision wants to turn its Guitar Hero platform into a truly direct competitor to its colleague. Come the fall, the publisher will release Guitar Hero World Tour, a package that will include a guitar, a microphone, and a drum set. There will be online capability; players will also be able to create their own tunes via a suite of digital-music tools. And all the major platforms from Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) will be getting this game.
Rock Band, which is developed by Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s Harmonix and sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), is no longer unique now that Activision has expanded the depth of its famous brand. Indeed, Guitar Hero still thrived even in the face of Viacom's music game, but it looks like Activision is taking no chances; the publisher obviously realizes that, as time goes on and upgrades to Rock Band come along, the Guitar Hero franchise might see eventual erosion of its fan base as the fad matures. Evolution would certainly be justified at this point.
Yet, I am of two minds about this move. On the one side, I can understand why this had to be done. And I can see why it should work out; after all, Activision's brand equity when it comes to this Guitar Hero game is incredible. Seriously, if you don't know, a lot of players out there, both hardcore and casual, love this platform. However, there's another side to me that wonders if traditionalists won't necessarily enjoy the aspect of the additional instruments. Do they add value, or do they now make the brand seem clunky and complicated? On a gut level, I always theorized that those who chose Guitar Hero over Rock Band relished the fact that it was just one guitar. Then again, going back to the brand-equity thing, maybe current players will now want to try out a more complex musical-gaming experience since the Guitar Hero name is attached.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) is a leading developer, publisher and distributor of interactive entertainment and leisure products. Offerings include such action titles as Tony Hawk's Underground, Doom, and Call of Duty. The firm also makes games based on licensed properties associated with the films Star Wars, Spider-Man, X-Men and Shrek. Activision games operate on Sony (NYSE: SNE), Nintendo and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) console and portable devices, as well as on personal computers. The company agreed to sell a 52% stake to Vivendi late last year, in a deal valued at $9.8 billion. Activision will be combined with Vivendi Games, to create the world's largest independent video games company.
The firm surprised the Street earlier in the month, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 17 cents and revenues of $602.5 million. Analysts had been expecting five cents and $369.1 million. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $1.30 ($1.18 consensus) and FY09 revenues to $3.1 billion ($2.82B consensus). Moving toward the Vivendi link-up, the CEO promised to "focus our resources on proven properties with broad global appeal." Six brokerages subsequently declared the stock a "buy".
In 1987, Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) was featuring renown musicians such as Stevie Winwood and Phil Collins in a "The Night Belongs to Michelob" ad campaign. I'm sure the ad hacks in charge thought they'd had a stroke of genius when they conceived of using Eric "Slowhand" Clapton, performing his hit "After Midnight", as part of the series. 1 a.m., guitar god, and Michelob; seems like a natural, right?
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Apple shares rise on report Steve Jobs is free of cancer
Toyota whups GM in the first half of 2008
Bush: Wall Street got drunk!
