It's the sellers, not the buyers, that drive Avon's (AVP) stock value. What differentiates Avon from other beauty and personal care players such as L'Oreal (LRLCY), Procter & Gamble (PG), Estee Lauder (EL) and Unilever (UL) is not what it sells but how it sells. Avon is the largest direct selling organization in the world, with over 6.2 million sales representative generating annual revenues of nearly $11 billion in 2010.

Avon sells everything from shower-gels to watches to nutritional supplements. While others sell their products through third party establishments like drugstores or mass volume retailers, Avon sells its products directly to the final consumer. Avon's sales representatives are independent contractors that pitch Avon's products to consumers and, upon receiving an order, buy the product from Avon at a discount and earn the difference.

Avon (AVP) is one of the leading players in the beauty and personal care industry and competes with companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), L'Oreal, Estee Lauder (EL) and Revlon (REV). Along with skin creams, shower gels, fragrances and other beauty products, Avon also makes fashion accessories like watches and apparels, and home products like decorative items, house wares and nutritional supplements. What differentiates Avon from its competitors rest is the way it sells its products. Avon is the largest direct selling organization in the world and has an active sales force of over 6.2 million sales representatives across the globe who sell directly to the consumers.

A lot has been written about the slow pace of economic recovery in the U.S. with unemployment levels at close to historical highs at 9.4% (as of December 2010) set in contrast to the feverish growth of emerging markets. It then comes as no surprise that most of the big players in the beauty and personal care industry such as L'Oreal (LRLCY), Estee Lauder (EL), Revlon (REV), Avon (AVP), Procter & Gamble (PG), Unilever (UL), Colgate (CL) and Kimberly Clark (KMB) are increasing their presence in growing markets like China, India and Latin America.

Cosmetics giant Avon Products (AVP) unveiled its fourth-quarter earnings this morning, and the results fell short of Wall Street's expectations. AVP's quarterly profit slipped 15% to $229.5 million, or 53 cents per share. Excluding restructuring expenses, earnings from continuing operations declined to 59 cents per share from 68 cents in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 1.2% to $3.18 billion.

By contrast, analysts were looking for a profit of 67 cents per share on revenue of $3.28 billion. AVP's fourth-quarter performance was negatively impacted by currency fluctuations, as well as higher product costs.

The stock of Avon Products (AVP), first discussed here on May 6, 2009, at a price of $23.12, has meandered for the past three months at/near $29, and it might warrant a stand-aside view, for now.

Concerning Avon's fundamentals, Avon should post an impressive 2010 revenue increase of 6% to 9% led by emerging market sales gain, including Central/Eastern Europe and Latin America. Counter-intuitively, AVP's China market will likely underperform. Avon should also post a 3% to 5% revenue increase in 2011.

Analyst Upgrades

• TCF Financial (TCB) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Exelon (EXC) to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.
• Nvidia (NVDA) and Boyd Gaming (BYD) upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Estee Lauder (EL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Webster Financial (WBS) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Skilled Healthcare (SKH) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from underperform and Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Autodesk (ADSK) to buy from neutral at Goldman.

From time to time, Avon Products (AVP) becomes the topic of buyout rumors. And yes, this week it happened again. Actually, investors are giving it some credence. In Tuesday morning trading, the shares of Avon were up 5.6% to 35.03. That's only a couple bucks away from its 52-week high.

The buyout buzz comes from a report in the Daily Mail. According to this UK paper, it appears that L'Oreal is looking at a bid that could be as high as $44 per share, or $19 billion.

Analyst Upgrades

• Merriman upgraded Penn National (PENN) to buy from neutral, citing the company's strong balance sheet and management team. The firm also raised its target range for shares to $34 to $37.60.
• BMO Capital upgraded Cooper Companies (COO) to outperform from market perform and raised its price target to $55 from $46. The firm sees upside to Street estimates and increased visibility.
• Argus upgraded Watson Pharma (WPI) to buy from hold based on valuation.
• Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Allstate (ALL) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Weingarten Realty (WRI) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Avon Products (AVP) does not have a beautiful chart. It shows a stock that has had trouble making a breakout to the upside. The boring range is defined by a low of $25 and a high of $36.39.

On Thursday, the company reported second-quarter data. Sales rose 8%. On an adjusted basis, net income was 48 cents per share; this compares very nicely to the 38 cents per share booked in the year-ago period. Analysts were hoping for 45 cents per share. Operational cash flow over the last two quarters more than tripled to $241 million.