It's that time again! Time to refocus on "my pal Warren's" life's work, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), which closed yesterday at $4,119.50 and is trading lower, currently at $4,080. That is enough to get my attention after staying on the sidelines for months since I followed it up from our last buy-in around $3,600.
BRK.B shares reached a 52 week high of $5,059 last December and it has been bouncing around ever since with a trend downward.
This is not the time to pounce on the stock. This is the time to prepare yourself to pounce on the stock.
The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 16.4. which is slightly under the current market average, but this is no average company. It actually is rated AAA (for real!) and has been for a long time. Most investors would consider Berkshire a safe haven, unless of course they decided to buy it at the all time high.
Most of us would be thrilled to invest in a stock that doubles our money, but it certainly isn't easy to find these stocks. According to data provider Capital IQ, in the last year only 1.4% of 6,700 stocks trading on the U.S. exchanges were able to double their price.
BusinessWeek started hunting some of these potentially great stocks by asking fund managers to choose those firms expected to provide 100% returns in the next few years. Of course, the resulting list is by no means a sure thing, since major factors such as the ongoing credit crisis and challenging market conditions could affect results in unpredictable ways.
But let's look at some of the strategies used when picking high-potential stocks.
Mary Lisanti, portfolio manager at the Adams Harkness Small Cap Growth Fund, focuses on young companies in the small-cap segment. She points to stocks like Rubicon Technology (NASDAQ: RBCN) and Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ: TITN), saying that investors can have a big advantage when they recognize potential before the market does.
Last year, my best Chasing Value recommendation was Aluminum Corp of China ADS (NYSE: ACH), which sailed from $22 per share to a 52-week high of $90.95. I will take credit for finding a winner, but I cannot in all honesty say that I thought it would more than quadruple -- that part was luck. (The original story was Chasing Value: Aluminum Corporation of China ADS, which I still think is worth a read today.)
If you acquired what is often referred to as Chalco (China Alum. Co.) anywhere near the time I recommended it and still own it you are probably still very content with only perhaps a 90% gain as the stock has come down some, closing last Friday May 9 at $40.98
Another of my recommendations was General Dynamics Corp (NYSE: GD), which closed Friday at $90.92. This one is only up a few percentage points from my starting point of $88 per share, but you will note, curiously, that it is only 3 cents off ACH's high. Given the market's bad year, a gain when the market is losing is a bigger plus than the casual observer would perceive. The defense sector has provided the anticipated market defense as I discussed.
During Thursday's trading, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) hit an all-time high of $78.75 and closed at $77.62. Anadarko was one of my first recommendations after I started writing for BloggingStocks, and is nearing 100% appreciation from the $40 price tag it had when we acquired it.
The 10-year chart below indicates the strong long-term performance of Anadarko, rising about 500% and paying dividends to boot. I cannot say the stock is a bargain at recent highs, but I can emphatically state that this company belongs on your watch list.
After yesterday's closing bell Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reported strong earnings. Excluding nonrecurring items, Anadarko's earnings totaled $1.44 per share for the quarter. On average, analysts were expecting just $1.22 per share. When compared with last year, Anadarko's quarterly profit per share surged more than 40%.
As one who was greatly embarrassed by making a premature recommendation (being kind) that investors give consideration to acquiring shares in IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) prior to its dramatic collapse; I can ill afford to suggest that folks jump in now. However, I might just do that.
Yesterday IndyMac jumped about 20% as it was reported that CEO says IndyMac has 'turned a corner' finishing the day at $3.97 a share -- still a long way from its 52-week high of $37.50. "Given the decline in our stock price, some people have questioned IndyMac's survivability in the current environment," Chief Executive Michael Perry said. "I am here to tell you that I believe we have turned a corner and that our business is improving. We are now achieving profitability with this new production model, with all of our nine regional wholesale centers and 104 of our 152 retail lending branches being profitable in March," Perry said.
The message is clear from the top, with negative earnings and corresponding negative P/E ratio just about any turnaround would make this stock cheap. Perry is correct that the stock is priced for failure. What should the price be if Perry gets IMB back to profitability by the end of the year? A lot more than it is now.
The stock moved way up at the opening bell this morning trading to $4.20, so there are a lot of investors who share my view ... and then it traded down, so then again...
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of IMB.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
What is harder to get than good Lakers play-off tickets? An invite to the pre-release cast and crew screening of the new Iron Man movie!!
Last night I had the privilege of being one of the first to see Iron Man, the first film produced by Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL), not one of the major studios. Although it wears the Paramount Pictures label and Paramount will be distributing the film, this one is Marvel all the way.
My colleague Steven Mallas reported last month about Marvel's super earnings report and come this Monday when the weekend box office tallies are in, I expect Iron Man to be at the top of the charts. In other words, IRON MAN WILL BE HUGE!
Although the cost of production and promotion reportedly shot past $200 million, I can tell you that they got it all on the screen. So much so that I write with excitement for movie enthusiasts (me), baby-boomer fans of Marvel comics (me again) and my two sons who accompanied me last night (me, them), and I want to add an exclamation point to every sentence!
Watching one of your largest holdings go up in value is a vision of joy. The same is not true on the way down. Huaneng Power ADS (NYSE: HNP) is indeed way down from its high of $57.50. I recommended the stock last year at $26.50 and looked brilliant until last month when it completed retracing its upward trajectory back to that level.
The company reported an 80% drop in earnings attributed to higher coal costs Tuesday. However, today the value buyers must be back in droves because the stock closed up almost 16% as one of the day's big movers. The stock closed at $30.25, up over $4 per share. The following three-year chart captures the drama.
It should not come as a surprise to many that as crude oil pushed $120 per barrel and gas prices passed $4 a gallon at the pump Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) reached a new 52 week high of $71.12 and finished Tuesday at $70.07. The stock is up over 75% (not including the dividend) since I recommended it last year.
At the time I disclosed that I acquired the stock at $40 and suggested this was a keeper. I like the fact that the company has a substantial amount of its proven oil and natural gas reserves in North America. It also pays a modest dividend 0.52% while sporting a P/E under 9 (TTM). When last I posted on the subject -- Serious Money: great picks: Aluminum Co. of China & Anadarko -- about ten weeks ago, APC was trading at $55, down from its previous high, though still returning a nice gain. That was the time to buy on the dip if you were watching it.
The current dividend yield of 5.8% remains very generous and far above most other stocks in the sector. After some of my high dividend stock recommendations either under performed or simply cut their distribution, it is reassuring to see that PDS not only is maintaining its dividend, but in this particular case continues to pay out monthly, allowing for better compounding of the yield.
The stock closed today at $27.15, up 75.5% from $15.47 when I recommended the stock three months ago. If you got into the stock back then you would still be receiving over a 10% yield. Last year I had several high flyers but not all of them stayed up so I am watching Precision closely for signs of weakness or changes in the business.
While analysts have proven over and over again that they are human (can't be more polite than that) the impact that they have on short-term stock values is clear. Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), which closed yesterday at $348.50, dropped to $310.54 at the opening bell and is now trading at $292.00 as I type away. I will report the closing price in an update, but for now the stock has been hit hard -- down over 16%.
ISRG the maker of the da Vinci system, which uses robotic equipment and computers to do minimally invasive surgical procedures disappointed analysts and the stock was punished. Interestingly ISRG reported strong growth and even a positive outlook, however, that outlook was not as glowing as analysts expected and the result is not pretty. Does this mean that the company is not doing very well -- no. Does this mean that the stock price will not be higher next year than it is today -- the answer is no again.
What it does mean is that like other stocks with nosebleed valuations, such as Intuitive's with a trailing P/E of 80, they remain hypersensitive to the slightest deviation from expectations, reasonable or not. This happens even when Intuitive Surgical Q1 profit almost doubled.
It has been a difficult year to find stocks that have done well in the market. To find a stock that has had staggering returns has been even rarer. I know because I've had a few disasters like Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), which will soon be folded up into JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), and is only one among many financial nightmares.
A while back I reported in Chasing Value: Precision Drilling up 46% since December that one of my picks was having an amazing year. The first quarter is behind us and the dream continues. Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), continues to rise while it is drilling down, increasing from $15.47 when I originally reviewed it to last night's close at $24.75.
This 60% jump is on top of the 10% dividend yield, which by itself is quite satisfactory. From the many people that follow my rants and raves, I sometimes get suggestions or questions that lead me in a certain direction. I have to share credit with a good friend of mine, Joe G., for shining a light on Precision Drilling. He was right that it was worth a look and of course I shared my findings with everyone when I recommended the stock three months ago.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.
March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.
Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.
We recently acquired shares of Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) at $36.00 ahead of its earnings report. We have been watching it for about 16 months and I thought there was increasing value as the stock started dropping from its 52 week high of $57.34. I had previously brought it to readers' attention in Serious Money: Pondering Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo. After we put TIF on our watch list, that seemed like all we could do, just watch as it continued to move up farther away from our perceived value. So we just decided to let this train leave the station without us. Then the train came back and rewarded our patience.
Tiffany is a brand name of historic magnitude, pays a dividend, has a business that is easy to understand and is expanding internationally. Yesterday, the stock closed at $43.56 as the company raised its outlook for the year. The stock price is now just above where it was when we started watching it, but long term there might still be value here. I should note that we will not add to our position at this level, but if it drops again we will.
The following ten year chart indicates a highly erratic stock that can swing wildly, as much as $20 in any given year. From 1999 to 2004, there was no appreciation. Interestingly, I would have thought these 20 point swings might be appealing to one of my colleagues who uses charts and is a trader, but it was not. He hated this chart and sees no upward momentum. I on the other hand see plenty to like.