I made it through mid-year of tracking my 2008 picks from last December and then -- Wham! -- I went from a slight advantage to being humbled badly by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all of the horrors since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

The master is still the master, Warren Buffett and his life's work Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) beat me easily as well as the three indices I tracked.

For the most part, unless you started shorting stocks, there was no place to hide and most of my picks were big losers. There were two that beat Buffett and the market. The defense sector was the defensive sector it was supposed to be with Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) doing well on a relative scale. The other place you could have a morsel of stability was utilities and Huaneng Power International (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) lost less but not by much.

Sometime in the future the economy will recover, maybe not with staggering gains, but it will recover. Ah, but you ask when? Well, trying to forecast that, would really be sticking my neck out.

If you are an avid reader then you have seen some predictions that speak of a recovery in the spring and some that push it out as far as 2011. Tough business that prediction business.

All that is well and good, but let me get to something that I do feel comfortable predicting, or at least repeating the daily news: UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE GETTING A LOT WORSE in 2009. Who will benefit from this? I expect the church pews and bar stools will be in full use. I also think pawn shops, those lenders of last resort (excepting your local loan shark) will be doing a booming business.

The two most prominent pawn shops that are expanding organically and by acquisition are Cash America (NYSE: CSH) and EZCorp Inc. (NASDAQ: EZPW). Both are down this year but beating the indices by a fair margin.

It's never been a good idea to bet against America. And nothing is better than America's diamonds, so you can't help but love the companies that comprise DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (NYSE: DIA) exchange-traded fund (ETF). DIA is one of the first ETFs ever created and indexes the Dow Jones Industrial Average. These are the best companies in America -- good, solid producers.

Valuations have been crushed across the board in 2008, and many money managers that I know who have owned more speculative small cap companies, are looking at the stocks in the Dow Jones that are trading at historically low multiples and "trading up" in the quality of their companies. Do you have $10,000 in a few marginal small cap companies? Sell them all and buy DIA -- you might get a safer ride if the market continues to fall, while preserving nearly all of the upside.

During the last 12 months, DIA has paid about $3 of dividends. Based upon an $87 price, this is about a 3.4% yield and you still have all the upside -- remember a few months ago the Dow was at $135.

Examples of the well-known and respected companies in DIA include 3M Company (NYSE: MMM), Boeing Company (NYSE: BA), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) among many other famous brands. These brands are consistent performers and even in times of economic crisis, will probably still draw huge numbers of customers to their products.

Why pay a large cap money manager to stock pick among the Dow Jones? DIA only charges 0.14% to own all the companies through this ETF whereas a traditional money manager would charge you much 1% - 2% to invest in the same companies, thus taking most of your dividend away in fees.

It was only a couple of days ago I posted Serious Money: What's on your watch list? suggesting you had to be ready because you never know when an opportunity might arise to acquire a value proposition.

Then yesterday the market was up but sluggish in anticipation of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke possibly announcing a cut in the overnight rate, so I pulled the trigger on the one stock I could get at the right right price that was the most interest rate sensitive.

• Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is one of the stocks mentioned in Fortune Magazines "Ten Promising Stocks for 2009" and is currently paying almost a 15% yield at Friday's closing price of $14.92. The company borrows money at short term rates and only invests in long-term Federally backed mortgages. They have avoided subprime loans and derivatives entirely.

I bought NLY for $14.80 per share locking in at an actual yield of 15.01%. Sure enough, Bernanke slashed rates to the bone letting the rate float from 0% to .5% and the DJIA jumped finishing the day up several hundred points, while Annally closed at $15.84, one of my big gainers for the day.

You can't put one in your holster yet, but they have done it. The Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN) has brought H. G. Wells' science fiction invention of the ray gun to reality as an advanced missile defense system.

The first serious battlefield ray gun is now being deployed. And the next generation, now in the laboratory, is coming soon.

It was last July when I posted Chasing Value: Raytheon says 'Game on' highlighting the stock. It was one of this year's picks, and while down, it has out performed the market. I liked it last year, I liked it mid-year and I still like it. The company is a leader in missile defense systems and civilian airport radar and monitoring systems.

This has been a terrible year for financial institutions. However, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) has been able to make it through the obstacle course better than most.

The stock has been up and down with the market but the scandals and large write-downs that have tanked other companies have not been a part of the Wells story.

What has me wondering about Wells today is the prospectus I received from the company to purchase shares at $27 each. The offer is for 407,500,000 shares, far more than I could swallow at a cost in excess of $11 billion -- I have never seen that kind of money!

I'm sure they just figured I might take at least a few shares off their hands, and I have in the open market. If memory serves me correctly, this offering was announced about six weeks ago. The strange thing is that this came to me on a day when the stock closed at a price of $21 and change. Who pays $27 for a $21 stock?

It was only seven weeks ago that I posted Chasing Value: Considering Berkshire Hathaway... again. At the time, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) was trading around $3,850 for the "B" shares.

Well, I think the time for consideration is over and this morning I placed a limit order for the stock. I think the time is right when stories like Berkshire Hathaway at Lowest Close Since Feb. 2007 and my colleague Peter Cohan's Warren Buffett is not perfect are being trumpeted in the media.

For those who have followed "my pal Warren" Buffett for years, or even decades, these cautionary stories of him losing his edge are as silly as trying to predict where the DJIA will be on a given date. As for Peter suggesting that he was early buying into Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) or General Electric (NYSE: GE) three weeks ago, well my gosh, it has only been three weeks!

I understand that the prevailing wisdom seems to be running against the buy and hold approach. But three weeks is kind of short to be passing judgment, don't you think? The DJIA is down 42% while Berkshire is only down 31% from its high of $5059.

Perhaps investors have punished the stock because GS and GE are down. Maybe it is because Berkshire has been buying up railroads and that strategy is less important with oil prices falling 55% since the summer high of $147 a barrel. It could also be because people have lost their minds -- who knows?

The first time I bought Intuitive Surgical Inc (NASDAQ: ISRG) I paid around $7 per share and that is about the lowest point since it went public. Those shares have been sitting in our portfolio as our largest position and our best investment for quite some time.

ISRG makes computer assisted robotic surgical equipment to assist doctors in a growing range of less invasive procedures.

The stock closed yesterday at $214.80. I have been tempted to buy more shares many times over the last few years and regular readers know how much I like this stock: Intuitive Surgical jumps over 32% - where's the ceiling?

Until today I hesitated to buy more because the stock was jumping so fast that I always thought it was slightly ahead of the value. Each time it just went up more.

After the market closed yesterday ISRG reported an increase in revenue and earnings.

• Revenues for the quarter grew 50% over the same period last year. The company's third quarter 2008 net income was $57.6 million, up 41% from $40.9 million reported for the third quarter of 2007. Earnings per share increased to $1.44 from $1.04 in the prior-year comparable quarter. Eleven analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected the company to earn $1.27 per share for the quarter.

Even though the company beat earnings expectations by $0.17 (13.38%) a share the stock dropped almost 16% a share, since yesterday. Until today I watched the stock go from $7.00, to as high as $359.59, its all-time high and stayed on the sidelines except to buy a little for my kids shortly after our company got in.

Today, with the share price 50% off its high; with investors afraid of their own shadows; with world financial markets in turmoil; I bought more at $180 per share. That is 10 times what my kids shares cost and almost 26 times what I first paid.

This one is a keeper and one of the few stocks besides Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) that I have ever recommended that does not pay a dividend. Even Warren Buffett has been buying and recently posted a bullish story in the NY Times. The following is the five-year chart for ISRG.

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) changed direction early this morning as it left behind an FDIC maneuvered deal with Citigroup (NYSE: C), deciding to hitch up with the Wells Fargo's stagecoach instead. It was announced they have "signed a definitive agreement for the merger of the two companies including all of Wachovia's banking operations."

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) last night presented Wachovia with a signed and board-approved offer to purchase Wachovia Corporation as an intact company and without government assistance in a stock-for-stock merger transaction. Under the Wells Fargo proposal, each share of Wachovia common stock will be exchanged for 0.1991 shares of Wells Fargo common stock, representing a value of $7 per share, based on Wells Fargo's closing stock price on Oct. 2, 2008.

The deal valued at about $15 billion, means Wachovia will combine with the only AAA-rated financial institution in the United States.

IN pre-market activity Wahovia and Wells stocks are up while Citi's is down 10%.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of WFC.

Many people are questioning why they should be in the stock market at all, now or ever. One person even asked me to show him a single stock that has had anything positive to show for itself in the last ten years.

How about something positive over the entire ten years, or at least eight. Given I have made many sour picks this year I was proud to reveal one of my best picks ever and perhaps a good place to hide if you can get in on a dip. I first mentioned it in Scary market -- any safe stocks? about fourteen months ago when the market first took a dump.

My star attraction is the Southern Company (NYSE: SO) and the following is the chart. It has been a consistent performer and paid a dividend to boot which currently stands at 4.38%. As you can see this stock would have allowed you to double your money when the Standard & Poors 500 Index is actually down.



Here is what I said back then:

• Southern Company (SO) has been the biggest addition to our family holdings. It is now in at least seven portfolios and I have sold naked puts for November 30's. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING ANYBODY SELL NAKED PUTS. Selling naked puts is very risky and as they say..."don't try this at home folks." I like Southern because it is near a 52-week low, but has had five years of continuous growth. It pays a huge dividend, as utilities traditionally do, and it is located in a part of the country that has relatively low wages, cheap land, good weather, a favorable tax environment and it has seen tremendous growth in the past two decades, which I believe is very likely to continue.

I recommended it again last month in a follow up story Serious Money: 5 more stocks better than CDs -- NUE, PDS, SO, WFC, XEL.

'SO' there is good news to report even in a crappy market. Put this on your watch list. If the next ten years turn out to be as bleak as some fear they might, the dividend alone will provide you with some much needed shade from the heat.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of SO.

The Democrats have nearly wrapped up their national convention making history by nominating Barack Obama the first African-American, or person of any color for that matter, to lead a major party in pursuit of the presidency. Tonight they put a big bow on the whole affair and start the next leg of the race.

Speaking of big bows it might be in order for Barack to be giving thank-you gifts to the women in his life, Michelle and Hillary -- a little blue box might be just the 'ticket'. In her daily Before the Bell post my colleague Melly Alazraki reported about Tiffany's super quarter:

• U.S. jeweler Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) posted double the quarterly profit from a year ago on Thursday, benefiting from strong international sales and solid tourist spending at its New York flagship store. Net profit was $80.8 million, or 63 cents per share, in its fiscal second quarter, up from $40.5 million, or 29 cents per share a year earlier, and beating estimates of 55 cents per share. Revenue grew 11%. Tiffany also raised its 2008 profit outlook on strong sales in Europe and Asia and expected improvement in the U.S.
  

TIF has been up and down this year, like most stocks, since I wrote about it last February in Serious Money: Pondering: Home Depot, Tiffany & Wells Fargo. Shares have jumped this morning by almost 10%, trading as high as $44.45 after closing yesterday at $39.61.

Reporting on the daily appreciation of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) over the last few weeks has made me feel like a play-by-play announcer. One comment in an earlier post on MBIA raked me over the coals for writing when the stock was up 26%, only a few days after I suggested readers take a look at some crushed financials in Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. He did this even though on the day he commented it was up by 74%.

I was just reporting the jump but the reader took me to task for bragging when nothing should be judged so quickly, and my previous financial calls were bad. Well, MBIA has now leaped from $4.92 three weeks ago to $11.22 at Friday's close for a gain of 126%. This is BIG news even if it happened quickly -- in particular because it happened quickly.

The reasons may be numerous. Perhaps it is a combination of company stock buybacks and short covering. Perhaps it is the periodic comments in Barron's about the value of the company based on its current book of business and the fact it needs no new business to be profitable. In its last earnings report, MBIA did suprise to the upside substantially. Last Friday was certainly related to the fact that it was taken off the watch-list for the next three months as the ratings agencies supported MBIA's rating of AA.

MBIA has a current price-to-book of 0.26, a P/S ratio of 0.76 and P/CF of 1.57, so maybe it is still worth a look.

Update: Final, closed up to $11.83, $0.61, (+ 5.44%). MBIA stands at $140% gain.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI.

Analysts have been negative on the agri-business processing sector recently, but the stocks have been shedding value for two months and they may have to reconsider. Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG) is delivering 42% growth according to Smart Money.

The stock is down 16% from my original post recommending it for 2008 and it is trading down more this morning. However, I have not changed my opinion about the prospects of the company and my original rational has remained solid despite the wild swings in the stock over the past few months.

Last year when I posted Serious Money: ADM, Bunge, Potash Corp. -- it's a hungry world it looked like there was no downside, and even though it is disappointing to see the stock down now, all I can say is the investment opportunity is even better. As they are a leading producer of soy and soy products, how can one resist this level of growth at a P/E of 8, half the market average?

After seven months of tracking my 2008 picks -- Wham! -- I went from beating the indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) to being humbled by the market. However difficult it is to display your failings, once again I will share all. This is the low point since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008.

Only Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) remained in positive territory, down from five stocks that were up in the last report. Sometimes, the reasons for the downslide were more obvious than they were in the cases for my picks. The cutting in half of Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) has been reported often, as the largest independent oil refiner in North America has had its profit margins squeezed.

Loews Corporation (NYSE: L) has been hurt by its insurance interests and helped by its holdings -- a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index is narrower than in the past.

Well, the market was in the dumps yesterday and is even worse today. So this may be a good time to check on my list of stocks for those looking for equities that are stable enough to ride out this bearish storm.

This update is a spot-check of my earlier post Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, to see how my picks are holding up so far. Closing prices are for August 12, 2008.

The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. The following are the five stocks with closing prices from July 1.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) -- when recommended the stock closed at $64.34 and paid a 2.89% dividend yield. It finished at $71.70 -- up 11.44%

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) -- when recommended the stock closed at $45.80 and paid a 1% dividend yield. It finished at $46.41-- up 1.3%.

3) Chubb Corp. (NYSE: CB) -- when recommended the stock closed at $49.01 and paid a 2.64% dividend yield. It finished at $48.39 -- down 1.26%.