General Electric (NYSE: GE) not only disappointed Wall Street investors this past Friday with its horrible results, but shocked investors as CEO Jeffrey Immelt gave the "all is alright" signal in mid-March. He should resign as he has had nearly 7 years to grow this once great company.
GE should also bite the bullet and spin off several segments into separately traded companies. I wrote about this extensively last year for AOL, but now the rationale is abundantly clear. This company--a major conglomerate--cannot deliver decent shareholder returns. Immelt took the reigns of GE on September 7,2001 when the stock was at $40. Nearly 7 years later the shares are at $32 and barely holding on. I find it amusing that some "value" investors think GE is interesting at this level. These were the same investors that found GE interesting and a value-play at $38 last year.
The problem with GE is not that it's too big: the problem is it is too complex. The largest industrial company in the world now is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) with expected revenues this year of $550 billion. This company however is strictly in the energy sector--it's measurable and quantifiable. GE is a mish-mash of businesses, from light bulbs to jet engines to appliances to consumer loans, whereby some segments are doing well and others horribly. How does any analyst assign a proper PE ratio expectation?
One segment, the infrastructure division grew its revenues by an admirable 23% this past March quarter and its profits by 17%. With this kind of growth and visibility into the next 18-24 months on revenues because of contractual commitments, this division alone could command a 25 + PE ratio. GE as a whole is now trading at 14 X 2008 EPS estimates of $2.20-2.30.
The GE Financial segment was woeful and provided the negative surprise. This segment on its own would trade at a PE ratio of between 9-11 times. The NBC-Universal division showed only 3% year-over-year growth, but cash flowed very well. This segment should command a 15-17 PE multiple.
Normally, I try to avoid overall market prediction. I think it's a waste of time. But just as my Scooby sense told me that Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) looked ripe for a fall yesterday -- even as the stock was breaking out to new highs on news of yet another contract -- I'm feeling pretty bearish on the overall stock market for 2008.
I won't bet on it because a.) I don't have the patience and b.) I'm a momentum stock trader, what do I know about the macro picture? But that's the beauty of blogging; it's all about the sharing of ideas. And since, even with all my mistakes, my cumulative nine-year investment return is 4,832% (a little better than most, as detailed in my book), I know a little something about nearly everything stock market related and maybe I might be able to make/save you a buck or two. So, here we go, please comment as I'd like to get your opinion too!
Sure, today's jobs report is tanking the market and bringing up recession talk, but this is just a blip in the grand scheme of things. For the past few weeks/months, the stock market has been heading lower and there are tons of articles talking about how 2008 is going be another tough year for the stock market. (As if a 10% year for the Nasdaq is "a tough year" LOL, you spoiled, spoiled people, you ain't seen nothin' yet!)
A glut of Black Friday pricing promotions, more available shopping days and colder weather has assisted U.S. retailers in bringing back some shine to November same-store retail results. This is no surprise, but it helps the market take a deep breath after weak consumer confidence, a credit crunch that's still in progress and the lack of a "must have" holiday gift item were all worrying retailer watchers a few weeks ago right before Thanksgiving.
U.S. retailers have had a tough year this year (some worse than others) on the backs of spending pullbacks from many customer groups and tightening wallets. So far, estimates are concluding that November same-store sales results will rise 2.5% for November, ahead of the YTD rate of 2.2% through October of this year -- the slowest in over four years.
Welcome to the 38th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions and just a bit of everything else when it comes down to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
Last week, I suggested a plan of action to Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) for the marketing event that should rule all others: Black Friday. While Wal-Mart was busy this year threatening websites and online entities with lawsuits in order to plug leaks, the retailer could have used some innovation in its marketing message and actually driven a whole wave of curious buyers to its front doors.
Wal-Mart needs to be more innovate and far more proactive. Business as usual, especially during the busy holiday shopping season, should be an action of the past.
Today, I'll tear down some sections of Wal-Mart's Black Friday specials and we'll see how competitive it is with the other big retailers in town. I'll specifically look at consumer electronics retailers Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) (since electronics is the hot category this shopping season), and discount retailer Target as well.
Now that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over, retailers nationwide will continue the price discounting this week (and beyond) to keep those sales pouring in all the way until the end of December. Some retailers are taking the discount versus profit line this week, as 50% off is being seen at many online outlets, which is sure to cause a profit knock at the end of the day.
Is this any surprise? Not really -- loss leaders are always used to hook consumers looking for bargains into stores (and online retailer websites) where they are either ferociously upsold more expensive products or are extensively cross-sold more products than they came looking for.
It's the savvy consumer who seeks out a good bargain and leaves with just that item (or items) that retailers don't really want. But the U.S. consumer is a savvy one indeed, and the more tactics retailers use to push non-bargain products, the more consumers shrug them off.
It's been said that there are no "must have" gift products this year. These products, based on the law of supply and demand, command premium prices. When there is a lack of that kind of product, the only recourse many retailers have is to slash prices to get customers lifting up their spending. Although the holiday shopping season this year may indeed be a large one, will any companies make significant profit? Is there a goal of selling as much as possible while making very little profit in the process?
According to retail tracking experts ShopperTrak RCT Corp., this year's holiday shopping season, which officially began this past Friday, was off to a "very strong" start. To those economists and retail pundits that were buckled in for a bumpy ride to kick off the holiday shopping season, this is probably a big sign of relief. Yes, you can put those Pepto Bismol bottles down now, folks.
Although one report doesn't make a whole season better, the report from ShopperTrak estimated Black Friday sales this year up 8.3% over last year, with sales this past Friday alone totaling $10.3 billion from retail outlets across the U.S. ShopperTrak thought, as do I, that even in the face of rising energy prices and credit tightness due to risky loan defaults and mortgage resets, it takes a lot more than that for consumers to curb holiday spending.
The long haul now takes over, as estimates and details will pour in week by week through the Christmas holiday until it's very clear that the success from last week's Black Friday holiday spending kickoff will last all the way through December. Although today is Cyber Monday (when everyone begins shopping online at work), even online retailers saw excellent activity this past Friday. Visitors directed from www.shopping.com to its merchants increased 61% from 2006 levels, and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) even said that customers are picking up their computer mice more than their car keys. That makes for a nice quote more than it gives us meaningful data. We'll see if it stacks up after results come in from today's online shopping activity.
The one word that describes the retail world coming in to yesterday's "Black Friday" is nervousness. Would the consumer pull-back on this season's shopping and would retailers suffer a terrible fate? Many big name "box" stores have already dropped their forecasts for the season and earnings expectations were lowered. Not so fast.
The consumer came out in droves yesterday, and in some cases even Thanksgiving night. The great Mall of America in suburban Minneapolis was abuzz from the get-go. I know because I was there.
The Mall of America has enough parking to accommodate 14,000 cars. When I arrived at the Mall with my 17-year-old daughter and her two friends, I knew things were good when I was directed to park my car a mile from the Mall and hop the shuttle bus.That's a good start. Before I did park in the remote area, I dropped off my daughter and drove around the parking garage. I wanted to see where these shoppers came from. I counted license plates from 21 different states and many from Canada as they sported the Ontario license plates.
Not funny, ha, ha. Funny as in odd. Stocks act differently between now and the beginning of next year. Some stocks move for no apparent reason. Others don't move even when news is good. Here are a few reasons why.
It's time for investors to take losses. And there are plenty of those in housing stocks, financials and biotechs. Other industries have been hit as well this year but those stand out. You'll see many of these stocks drift down over the next few weeks as investors dump them to either take a loss to balance against a gain or decide to move into other stocks, unless there's a specific announcement by a company that is good news. Even then, there may not be as strong a reponse as you'd expect.
Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) shares have been soaring today. Traders seem to be excited as the start of the holiday shopping season sees many shoppers packing stores to buy discounted TVs, toys and electronics. The entire retail industry is higher today, with TGT one of the biggest winners. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TGT.
The stock hit its 52-week high of $70.75 in July and set its 52-week low of $50.25 in November. TGT opened this morning at $53.98. So far today the stock risen since the open and notched an intra-day high of $57.00. As of 12:15, TGT is trading at $56.99, up $2.89 (5.3%). The chart for TGT looks bearish and steady while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Most of us are recovering from a hefty array of Thanksgiving dinner portions this morning, and some brazen and brave souls are probably standing in the cold (and have been for hours) waiting for the doors to open early today. Retailers across the country will be opening at 5am or 6am this morning to recruit as many bargain shoppers as possible.
This way, each one can make the inventory dials spin like mad and move as much product off the shelf as any one day can allow. As usual, the bulk of the sales items at some of the largest retailers in the U.S. are centered around home electronics and electronic gadgets. There's some toys on sale too, of course!
With all that said, if you're one of the patient folks who didn't get up in darkness to slog down to a customer line at your favorite retailer, I'll do some of the entertaining work for you today. Like this writer, many of you reading this probably traveled from home for Thanksgiving. I'm updating you from the warm confines of a mountain lodge in Missouri. With a hot cup of coffee, a laptop and high-speed internet connection, I've collected some bargains for you. As such, you may want to call your spouse if he or she is in line at some retailer and snatch up some of the below.
First of all, visit the below websites if you really want a primer on all the Black Friday sales this morning:
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) said this week that it would heavily publicize its website for this Friday's Black Friday sales event and would kick off the 'official' start to holiday sales on Thanksgiving Day. It will launch several web-only sales tomorrow and will accept orders as well on turkey day. Then, come Friday morning, stores will unleash into pandemonium most likely, along with other retailers nationwide.
Some of the deals that will be visible on www.walmart.com tomorrow have already been officially announced by the retailer. Examples: the Microsoft Zune 30 gigabyte MP3 video player for $98.87, and the Garmin Nuvi 650 Portable global positioning system for $298.87. In the case of the Zune, it's last year's model that is already selling for under $100 at many web retailers, so that's not a surprise.
In addition to "visible" sales that will launch on the Wal-Mart website tomorrow, the retailer will have a special "secret" deals area on its website to allude to deals that will be available in stores first thing Friday morning. That is, Black Friday morning.
Those "secret" deals won't be advertised in its circulars, which are the most common ways customers find Black Friday sales information. I said last week that Wal-Mart needs to become a little more creative in its Black Friday marketing efforts. This isn't a huge start, but it's a start.
Once again, one of the hotter items during the holiday season will be computer products. Specifically, laptop computers will probably make the mark as one of the most popular gift items this season, right along with HDTVs and gaming consoles. Consumers continue to replace clunky desktop computer systems with portable and light laptops, and retailers are more than happy to oblige with loss-leader priced laptops to lure shoppers into stores.
Big box giants Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY), Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) are expected to join the fray, and these retailers will most likely spill the beans today and tomorrow (Thanksgiving Day) to whet the appetites of computer bargain hunters come this Friday morning -- also known, of course, as Black Friday.
Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) will be rocking and rolling this coming Friday, as millions of bargain-seeking shoppers hit the early morning streets of American to seize on those Black Friday prices everywhere.
It's almost like a TV sitcom, mind-numbingly predictable: retailers open up early, shoppers get up early, TV news crews film them, everyone shops 'til they drop then go home for turkey sandwiches while retailers count up the numbers and hope for the best. Every year the same plot.
Well, the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S. has already rehearsed for this coming Friday, as it engaged recently in tests to ensure the surge of traffic this Friday doesn't clog store openings, checkout lines or shopping aisles. Best Buy, in other words, is preparing some preventive maintenance in anticipation for the chaotic rush at the end of this week.
It appears that national retailers Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) are tired of having all those special, once-a-year Black Friday deals be spoiled on several websites weeks or months before the actual day arrives. Black Friday, to those who may be uninitiated, is the shopping day after Thanksgiving. Traditionally, it's the single-largest shopping day of the year.
But, these two retailers are striking back in a sense. Instead of places flyers in all those national newspapers on Thanksgiving Day (along with website updates), the two are planning a preemptive strike this year. What this means is that the nation will probably see Black Friday ads from Wal-Mart and Best Buy (and others) early next week before the holiday.
Best Buy has committed to releasing its ads on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. Although Wal-Mart has not been specific on when it will release its Black Friday ads, you can bet it will probably be Wednesday as well. Last week, the world's largest retailer threatened to sue any website that posted information on its Black Friday sales before that day, which has worked this year -- no leaks on official Black Friday deals from Wal-Mart have yet emerged, though rumors and rumblings abound.
Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) plans on cleaning up the third-party "Amazon Marketplace" due to many product duplications that are most likely getting on the nerves of many regular Amazon shoppers (the writer included). This new "clean sweep" inventory strategy only deals with the bookselling section of Amazon's online offerings, but it comes years too late.
ASINs, which are Amazon's unique numbers that are assigned to each individual product name or title (like a UPC code), are duplicated all over the e-tailer's website where it lets booksellers sell used and new books directly to Amazon customers for a small commission. The problem is that the largely unregulated Amazon Marketplace is littered with confusion due to so many ASIN duplications and such that the bargain shopper can become a tad frustrated when shopping for that immensely popular $3.95 used book.
But then again, Amazon's third-party sellers are (correctly) stating that the timing of the inventory cleanup is not really good, with the holiday shopping season in full swing and all. Could such drastic changes on this area of Amazon's website cause unknown glitches at a time when sales are everything?
With Black Friday coming up a week from tomorrow, many sellers probably don't want any changes at all to the way Amazon Marketplace operates -- something that makes perfect commerce sense. But past this holiday season, the inventory management of third-party goods needs to be a priority for the e-tailer. The way it presents many book items from outside sellers is anything from world class right at this moment.