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Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

One disastrous international trade policy of the 1930s concerned tariffs: nations increased tariffs on imports to protect domestic industries; when applied universally, it resulted in declining export sales and trade volumes. Tariffs made the Great Depression worse.

Now, it appears, nations are on the verge of implementing another counter-productive policy -- manipulating currencies -- and if public officials are not careful, a similar downward spiral in international trade could occur.

Continue reading Brazil: World Is in a 'Currency War'

Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

"For the 24th year running that the Economist magazine has published its famed Big Mac Index; this index is a tongue-and-cheek way of measuring the purchasing power parity (PPP) -- that is, the relative overvaluation and undervaluation of the world's currencies," notes Nicholas Vardy.

The editor of The Global Stock Investor explains, "What does the Big Mac now say about the relative value of global currencies?

"According to the theory of purchasing power parity, a dollar should buy the same amount of the same good across all countries. By comparing the cost of Big Macs -- a good that is produced in about 120 countries -- the Big Mac Index calculates the exchange rate (the Big Mac PPP) that would result in hamburgers costing the same in America as they do abroad.

Continue reading Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

Technical Analyst Foresees Another 10 Years in Decline

Technical analyst Robin Griffiths of Cazenove Capital has come up with a dire prediction for the West. Using his charting method, he foresees a 20-year secular downturn in the West. We are halfway through this period.

Griffiths has a unique way of putting it. He says that: "We should own in the East and rent in the West. In the East, you can own equities in countries like India and Brazil and without watching them too closely, will be sitting on returns of over 100% over the long term."

Continue reading Technical Analyst Foresees Another 10 Years in Decline

Six Ways to Bet on Brazil

"Anyone familiar with international investing knows about Brazil; it's hard to ignore the fifth largest country in the world by geography and population," says Ron Rowland.

The contributing editor to Money and Markets explains, "Although the ride will not always be smooth, Brazil still looks much more attractive compared to any broad-based U.S. investment. Meanwhile, there are six ways to gain access into Brazil's burgeoning economy using easy-to-buy ETFs.

"With a mixture of agricultural, mining, manufacturing, and service sectors, Brazil is one of the more diversified emerging markets.

Continue reading Six Ways to Bet on Brazil

Smithfield Foods Rises as Possible Takeover Target

SFD logoSmithfield Foods (SFD - option chain) shares are rising today as rumors have surfaced that the company may be an acquisition target for Brazilian meat titan JBS. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on SFD.

SFD opened this morning at $15.60. So far today the stock has hit a low of $15.28 and a high of $16.20. As of 12:15, SFD is trading at $15.34 up 0.46 (3.1%). The chart for SFD looks neutral and S&P gives SFD a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

Continue reading Smithfield Foods Rises as Possible Takeover Target

Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders -- Part 3

There are many places that Warren Buffett may choose to invest Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B) capital. At the same time you can be sure there are places he will not set foot. It is not likely he will invest anywhere that does not have a vibrant, well-established stock market with a stable government. So, Mr. Hugo Chavez in Venezuela will not likely see any capital deployed from the likes of "my pal Warren" any time soon.

As a matter of fact, I would put the chances at slim of any South American country, besides Brazil, getting a look at all. Brazil is just too big and too vibrant to ignore. I would rule out Africa entirely except for indirect investments in oil and minerals through large conglomerates. The closest thing in the region would be Israel, at the furthest western reaches of Asia. He has already invested there and there is a high probability he would again. Investors from most of Europe and Asia have done the same, although many would rather not discuss it.

He has also invested in China, Great Britain, South Korea, and Switzerland. I would expect more money to be plowed into all of them again without reservation if the right deal materialized.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders -- Part 3

Brace for Deflation at Home, Inflation in Emerging Markets

There's a lot of talk about whether the recovery will stall or continue building momentum. We could get a very clear picture this week since the big economic news will likely be the May price reports. I'm expecting to see signs of deflation across the board -- which could take some of the wind out of consumers' sails.

Here's the news to look for:
  • Tuesday, June 15: May Import Prices. Expected decline of -1.5%.
  • Wednesday, June 16: May Producer Prices. Expected decline of -0.5%.
  • Thursday, June 17: May Consumer Prices. Expected decline of -0.2%.

Continue reading Brace for Deflation at Home, Inflation in Emerging Markets

Three Booming Latin America Banks

The financial sector has been a strange double-edged sword in portfolios over the past two years or so. In the wake of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, billions of wealth was erased in what were long thought of as conservative stocks. Then the resurgence of some banks since the lows of last year made other investors a fortune, with Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) both soaring about 300% since historic lows on March 9, 2009.

The drama continues in the financial sector even now with the endless see-saw of mortgage default news and the continued worries over sovereign debt in the eurozone. Any investor jumping into financial stocks right now is really taking the tiger by the tail -- but if you do your homework, there a number of opportunities in the sector become clear -- particularly among financials in Latin America.

Continue reading Three Booming Latin America Banks

Nike Seeks Growth in Emerging Markets -- but Without Swoosh logo?

Nike NKE swoosh logoIn a recent Wall Street Journal interview, top Nike (NKE) executive Mark Parker talked about his ambitious goal to boost global sales 40% by 2015. His strategy? Focus on China, Brazil and India and connect with these emerging markets' emerging middle classes.

And most interesting of all: The company is planning this move under brands that don't bear the trademark swoosh logo.

Continue reading Nike Seeks Growth in Emerging Markets -- but Without Swoosh logo?

It's Time to Sell China -- and Buy These Emerging Markets

ChinaIt's no secret that China's phenomenal growth has been driving the global recovery. China's first-quarter GDP grew at an 11.9% annual pace despite three significant increases to reserve requirements that were designed to cool lending and growth. That's why in much of 2009 and early 2010 I was bullish on China and overweighted my global portfolios in favor of this country.

But all good things must come to an end and right now it's time to get selective about which China stocks you buy. That's why I recommend investors cut back their China holdings and look for new opportunities in emerging markets.

Continue reading It's Time to Sell China -- and Buy These Emerging Markets

Greek Bailout Is a High-Wire Act

Greek bailout The Greek bailout is now urgent. European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators are meeting via teleconference on Monday and a team will be in Greece for two weeks to hammer out the details of the bailout.

Why such urgency? On Tuesday Greece is issuing $2 billion in three-month government bonds. Last week the cost of Greek financing rose in international markets. There is fear that borrowing costs will continue to rise.

Continue reading Greek Bailout Is a High-Wire Act

BRIC Nations Pledge to Trade in Local Currencies

The key development stemming from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Summit? Arguably, it's the four's pledge to study ways to execute trade transactions in their local currencies, instead of the dollar.

The summit in Brazil's capital of Brazilia represented a gathering of nations likely to account for 60% of global GDP growth through 2014, Bloomberg News reported. It was the second annual gathering of the four BRIC nations.

Continue reading BRIC Nations Pledge to Trade in Local Currencies

Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

For comparison I tracked the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ. Each of these produced positive results for the quarter.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

Sugar Prices Plunge to an Eight-Month Low as Buyers Cancel Orders

Last year we heard that the lack of sugar supply was chasing prices higher. Adverse weather caused severe damage to sugar crops in Brazil and India. There were all kinds of stories about dry weather, wet weather, anything that would make buyers rush in before prices skyrocketed. The stories drove sugar prices to a 29-year high.

This year the situation has changed. Sugar supply is increasing. Prices have dropped 41% since reaching a high on Feb. 1. India, the world's second largest producer, estimates that this year's crop will be about 17 million metric tons.

Continue reading Sugar Prices Plunge to an Eight-Month Low as Buyers Cancel Orders

Aberdeen Foresees Stocks of Developing Countries Falling 15%

Devan Kaloo, of Aberdeen Asset Management foresees a 15% drop for stocks of developing countries. His fund is investing in the developing countries of Mexico, India and Turkey. He is neutral on Brazil and underweight on Russia.

He is holding fewer Chinese stocks because he feels that stock valuations in China are overdone. The $586 billion stimulus package is due to run out this year. The helped the Shanghai Composite Index to rise 80% last year. This year to date the index is down 6.4%.

Continue reading Aberdeen Foresees Stocks of Developing Countries Falling 15%

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Last updated: May 24, 2012: 08:14 PM

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