JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM)'s CEO Jamie Dimon recently stated that the recession in the American economy is "just starting."

As if to confirm Dimon's pessimistic view, the news is that JP Morgan will soon fire 4,000 employees, according to a Bloomberg report. The layoffs are being driven by two major factors: the "slowing environment" (try 'snowballing recession') and the sudden acquisition of 14,000 Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) employees.

Amazingly, Dimon reports that JP Morgan had found positions for 6,000 of the Bear employees. That seems like an awful lot of people to take on during a slowdown, but Dimon stated that Morgan was keeping only the very best Bear people and hoping to take on some of the firm's business as well.

Unfortunately for (some of) the people at JP Morgan, about 2,000 of the layoffs at JPM will be of Morgan people who are being replaced by Bear people. The other 2,000 will be Morgan employees who won't be able to blame Bear for their problems. (I'm not sure which is worse.)

Dimon did offer two bits of more optimistic news. He said that the integration of bear Stearns and Morgan is going smoothly -- although it's hard to know how much you can trust that statement, since what else is he going to say about that? And he said that in his view, the credit crunch is 75% over.

So that may offer a hint of brighter days ahead -- for his bank at least. For the broader economy, though, it still looks like dark days ahead.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Harris Corporation (NYSE: HRS), concerned about its future growth, may see limited opportunity and may consider selling itself, the Wall Street Journal reported. If it does decide to sell, suitors could include Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC).
• The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
• As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to sources, the New York Post reported that the ax may fall as early as next week on some investment bankers at The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC).

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) shares are falling today as an SEC official has warned that future investment banks that get into trouble may not get the same bailout that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) did. Director of Trading and Markets at the SEC Eric Sirri told the House Investment and Insurance Subcommittee that the liquidity help given to BSC may not necessarily be repeated if another bank has trouble. These words have dragged down LEH in trading yesterday afternoon and so far today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LEH.

After hitting a one-year high of $82.05 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.25 in March. This morning, LEH opened at $44.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $44.19. As of 12:40, LEH is trading at $42.67, down 0.97 (-2.2%). The chart for LEH looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.2% return in six weeks as long as LEH is below $50 at June expiration. LEH would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

LEH hasn't been above $50 since mid-February and has shown resistance around $47 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid-June) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HSY might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $45.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LEH or BSC.

Bloomberg News reports that Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Christopher Cox made a speech about requiring investment banks to disclose their capital and liquidity. (I was interviewed this morning on Marketplace radio about it.) He thinks this requirement somehow would have prevented the meltdown of The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC).

There is less here than meets the eye. Cox said, "One of the lessons learned from the Bear Stearns experience is that in a crisis of confidence, there is great need for reliable, current information about capital and liquidity." He said that data on capital and liquidity will be required this year "in terms that the market can readily understand and digest."

This is Washington and there is a power grab going on. In March, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced a financial regulation overhaul plan which defanged the SEC. And the SEC is now trying to present itself as relevant so it can continue to exist. The SEC already gets real-time liquidity and capital information without giving it to the public.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to senior industry sources, the Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Defense could ask General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE: GD) to provide the vehicle design for a new generation of armored vehicles for the army. It is unclear whether General Dynamics, in competition with Nexter and Artec, will be awarded the contract or will be named the preferred bidder.
• Following the collapse in March of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC), the Financial Times also reported that the SEC will soon require Wall Street banks to publicly disclose more details about liquidity and capital positions. Cox also urged lawmakers to pass legislation that would allow the SEC, or another regulator, the "explicit mandate to supervise" investment banks.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the New York Times, Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will move senior investment banker Alberto Verme to Dubai by the end of the month in the hopes of establishing a stronger foothold in the region, a crucial area for global banks.
• The New York Times also reported that several large oil companies, including BP Plc (NYSE: BP), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), agreed to pay nearly $423M in cash in order to settle a lawsuit that alleged water contamination from methyl tertiary butyl ether, a gasoline additive. Under the terms of the deal, the oil giants also agreed to pay 70% of the future cleanup costs for the next 30 years. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and several other companies named in the suit did not agree to the deal.

In January, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) made a gutsy move when it decided to purchase Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC). True, it would greatly expand its mortgage footprint, but it would also mean taking on lots of risk.

Of course, since then, the financials went into a swoon. In fact, the US financial system almost imploded because of the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) debacle.

As a result, there is much skepticism that Bank of America will close its deal, as evident by remarks from an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. – Paul Miller – who thinks that Bank of America should forgo the deal.

His belief is that there will be a need for a whopping $30 billion writedown, which would be tough to swallow for Bank of America's shareholders.

Interestingly enough, there are already signs that Bank of America is getting skittish. Last week, the firm was not clear that it would back Countrywide's debt. The upshot was that S&P downgraded the debt to junk status.

And yes, in today's trading, Countrywide's stock is down 10% to $5.35.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's some reason for caution, but no reason to get out of the market here.

There all right there. Don't you feel it? Hundreds of stocks at resistance. Hundreds have formed a nice base. The Transports and the Dow are moving in synch. The earnings period surprisingly great, with so many companies not stung by the raw costs. Three straight up weeks, with all the commodity stocks showing signs of rolling over; most at crucial "must hold" levels except for gold, which has already crashed, making the inflation case much dimmer in the eyes of the traders.

Yet, you simply can't read the papers. They are too awful. The cost to the consumers for everything from food to gasoline is humongous and going higher, according to all the food execs I had on last week. We are getting nowhere near a bottom in housing. The layoffs, while not significant in the Labor Report on Friday, sure seem endless. The two major presidential candidates from the Democratic side want to tax the oil companies into oblivion, the leaders of the last year. Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) blew the quarter. So did GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take).

Too far, too fast, based on those grim items.

To me, this is the first week since the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) bottom that I think seems aimless.

But perhaps there's a "split the difference" way to approach this week: options expiration.

The layoffs on Wall Street are not over. As a matter of fact, they may just be beginning. Many of the people at Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) are already gone. Citigroup (NYSE: C) says it will cut operating expense by 20%. Some of that has to be people.

UBS (NYSE: UBS) may now be looking at a plan to cut 8,000 people. A lot of that will come in the firm's banking division. According to Bloomberg, "The company will probably say it's eliminating between 2,500 and 3,000 jobs in its investment bank, more than 10 percent of the division, two people familiar with the matter said May 2."

UBS has been under some pressure to break itself into pieces to "unlock shareholder value." It is not quite clear how that would work, but management is against it.

The word from UBS is a particularly sad reminder of how the actions of a relatively few traders and executives who bet on mortgage-backed securities will cost tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people in the financial community around the world their jobs. Those who are to blame probably already have new employment. At least they can say they were "creative thinkers" when they go for job interviews.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Fed rate cuts help people who hold adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) but they're less valuable to people seeking new mortgages.

That's because ARM rates reset periodically -- e.g., every year -- based on an index plus a lender's margin -- the amount a lender adds to the index, usually two percentage points or four percentage points, to set the actual interest rate of the ARM. The most common index for ARM adjustments is the one-year U.S. Treasury bill.

Last Friday, the one year treasury rate was at 1.88% -- down 3.04 percentage points below the 4.92% rate it was at in April 2007. The Fed's rate cutting has lowered the rates at the reset periods for those who already have adjustable rate mortgages. So a person who paid 2% plus the 1-year t-bill rate in April 2007 would have paid 6.92% during the last year and enjoyed a reset to 3.88% as of last week.

Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has joined the baloney brigade -- the term Gary Weiss coined for the tinfoil hat crowd of conspiracy theorists who blame corporate problems on short-sellers.

Referring to the collapse of Bear Stearns, which some have blamed on shorts, Senator Dodd said that "This goes beyond rumors. This is about collusion."

Hold up. So Bear Stearns didn't collapse because of massive losses and a balance sheet like something out of a 1950s horror movie? No, apparently not. Bear Stearns collapsed because short sellers were betting it would collapse.

But isn't that like saying that the Patriots lost the Super Bowl because people bet against them in Las Vegas? The soaring short interest in Bear Stearns was an indicator of the company's problems, not a cause of them. The fact that JPMorgan needed guarantees from the Federal Reserve to acquire the company is proof of that.

Hyperbole? Maybe.

The former head of monetary policy at the Fed called the agency's action on Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) the "worst policy mistake in a generation." To some extent, the comments by Vincent Reinhart reflect his opinion that the Fed did not look at a number of other alternatives for saving the investment bank. According to The Wall Street Journal, "seeking other suitors, removing certain assets from Bear's portfolio or quickly implementing its previously announced offer to temporarily swap Treasury securities for dealers' less liquid assets" were all options.

The comments beg the question of what would have happened to the financial markers if Bear Stearns failed. The answer the Fed gives is that assets of other firms could have been destroyed or at least might have lost some of their value.

Rienhart may have a point. The Fed has made funds available to banks in exchange for paper, some of it with little value, which is, in many cases backed by mortgage-related securities. More recently it has let primary brokers have access to money on a similar basis. That mechanism was not in place when Bear Stearns was sold to JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) with Fed backing. Reinhart's real question is whether it was necessary to wipe our the investment bank's shareholders in exchange for saving its customers.

The Fed probably did act too fast. How many days would it have taken to ask for other bids for the investment house? Could the Fed have kept Bear afloat during that period? The answer is almost certainly "yes".

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and writes the Ten Stocks Under $10 Letter.

Biggest Stock Losers
Since the market slump began six months ago, U.S. companies have bled away trillions of dollars in value. 80% of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have fallen in value, according to data provider Capital IQ. Here's a damage report. The biggest loser is Bear Stearns which lost $16.7 billion in value. Other big losers include National City Bank, Ambac, CIT, Countrywide, E*Trade, WaMu, Sprint Nextel & Freddie Mac.
The Stock Market's Biggest Losers

6 Ways to Buy Checking 'Float' Time
Is your bank speeding money out of your checking account faster than you can put it in? Do you feel like someone just set your financial hamster wheel on fast-spin? Welcome to the new reality of check "float" -- or lack thereof. Float refers to the time it takes for money to leave your checking account. Nowadays, it's harder to buy extra time to pay your bills. Here are six moves you can make today to reclaim some lost "float" time.
6 ways to buy checking 'float' time -Bankrate.com

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) and Mars are in talks to purchase Wm. Wrigley Jr. Co. (NYSE: WWY) for over $22B, the Wall Street Journal reported. An announcement may come as soon as today.
• The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (NYSE: RBS) will start the integration of ABN Amro Holding's (NYSE: ABN) investment bank into its global markets division, the Financial Times reported. This process will most likely result in the paring of 7,000 jobs.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to the New York Post, IAC/InterActiveCorp. (NASDAQ: IACI) Chairman Barry Diller is expected to meet with his board this week to restart the process of breaking up his company into five separate pieces, sources said. At the same time, Diller and Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LMDIA) Chairman John Malone are continuing to talk about a deal that would trade one or more of IAC's assets for Liberty's ownership stake in IAC.
• The UK Times has learned that Numis Securities, the stockbroking group headed by Michael Spencer, is in "advanced talks" to buy the UK equities business of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC). Numis may look to hire a team of 25 from Bear.

Alan C. Greenberg, the 80-year old Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) director who joined the company in 1949, is giving $360 thousand to some of the bank's lower-level employees who may lose their jobs in the company's collapse.

According to the New York Times, "As a result of his gift, 25 longtime workers will receive $200 a month over six years. The recipients include mailroom and clerical employees, several of whom have physical or mental handicaps."

Of course, don't be feeling too warm and fuzzy: since early 2007 alone, Greenberg has sold over $30 million in Bear Stearns stock.

But it's still a nice gesture given that the bank's collapse has left a substantial dent in his net worth too. It's hard to imagine Angelo Mozilo doing something like this. Greenberg may spend the next few years dealing with shareholder lawsuits. He hasn't offered to give any money back to them.

FT.com reports that spreading a false rumor and selling short ahead of that rumor can get you into trouble. Paul Berliner is one such short-seller charged with spreading false stories about the Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX)'s acquisition of Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) while selling ADS shares short. If the SEC is serious, this could lead to other indictments since this practice appears rampant.

In this case, the SEC had evidence. On November 29 Berliner sent instant messages to traders at brokerage firms and hedge funds suggesting that Blackstone's deal to acquire ADS for $81.75 was being renegotiated at $70 a share. The rumor was picked up by the media and caused ADS's shares to fall 17%. Berliner agreed to settle the charges to disgorge $26,129 in profits, pay a $130,000 fine, and is banned from working for any broker or dealer.

As I posted last month, I received reports that hedge funds went a step further than Berliner. In that case, hedge funds may have caused the collapse of The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) and profited from its fall. A hedge fund manager in that post said: "Bear's collapse didn't surprise me. We've been short Bear for five days. All the hedge funds have been pulling their prime brokerage business from Bear."

If that hedge fund manager was telling the truth, does that make what he did legal?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.