Analyst Upgrades

• Goodrich (GR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Ford (F) to neutral from underperform and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar Financial (DLLR) and Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Alterra Capital (ALTE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, as well as SunTrust (STI) to neutral from sell, at Janney Capital.
• Arch Capital (ACGL), Axis Capital (AXS), PartnerRe (PRE), Everest Re (RE) and Transatlantic (TRH) to buy from hold, as well as W. R. Berkley (WRB) to hold from sell, at Citigroup.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009, at a price of $16.30, has survived the restaurant sector's major consolidation period, and I obviously still like the business model at this stage.

Cheesecake's shares have recently dipped to $29, after accelerating to $34 in December, but investors who can tolerate the risk should view the pullback as an opportunity.

Readers of this space know that, given the U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' trend, the view from here argues that the investors should venture cautiously in to the restaurant sector. But there are exceptions, and Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009 at a price of $16.30, has been one.

Cheesecake's shares have accelerated nicely out a summer dip, retaking the $30 level after a drop to about $21.

Moreover, if you're in at/near $16, now may be a good time to consider taking some profits.

Other investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position, but keep in mind the journey to $40 may not be completed in 2011.

Analyst Upgrades

• Union Pacific (UNP) and Polycom (PLCM) were upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Time Warner Cable (TWC) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• LaSalle Hotel (LHO) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Graco (GGG) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Valley National (VLY) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Credit Suisse (CS) was upgraded to hold from sell at RBS.
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Penn National (PENN) and Riverbed (RVBD) were upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Goodrich (GR) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) upgraded to buy from average at Caris.

The shares of upscale dining chain Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009, at a price of $16.30, appear to have bottomed after a summer swoon, and I obviously still like the shares.

Cake reported second quarter earnings of 39 cents per share, excluding items, 1 cent above the First Call estimate, and look for a similar, in-line performance in third and fourth quarters.

Further, 162-restaurant CAKE also has generated revenue roughly in-line with analysts estimates, and should total about $1.65 billion in FY2010, or a roughly 2.0% to 2.2% increase.

Readers of this space know that restaurant chains are opposed, for several reasons. However, every once in a while a chain forms that exceeds the segment's lamentable cuisine offerings, and still manages to make a buck.

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009 at a price of $16.30, is one.

The best financial reason to hold on to CAKE? The U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era has hit the restaurant sector hard, and there will be restaurant chain casualties, but Cheesecake won't be one. Don't expect anything spectacular revenue-wise from CAKE in FY2010 -- flattish to slightly higher same store sales, and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a grand total of three -- count 'em, three -- new restaurants opened under its upscale casual dining format.

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), first discussed here on June 25, 2009, at a price of $16.30, has raced ahead. My initial inclination would be to take the roughly 65% gain, but several fundamentals override that stance.

The primary reason to hold on to CAKE? The U.S.'s "frugal consumer" era has hit the restaurant sector hard, and there will be many chain restaurant casualties, but I don't think Cheesecake will be one. Don't expect anything spectacular from CAKE in FY2010 -- just flattish to slightly higher same store sales -- and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a net zero increase in restaurants operated.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Activision Blizzard Inc. (ATVI) reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings and declared an annual dividend.
• Allstate Corp. (ALL) swung to better-than-expected Q4 earnings and also swung to a full-year profit.
• Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) shares tumbled after it posted disappointing earnings tied to costs.
• The Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) posted better-than-expected Q4 earnings but sales were flat.
• Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) earnings numbers for Q4 resulted in upgrades from two analysts.
• CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) higher Q4 earnings matched the expectations of analysts, and shares rose.

I'm going to take a brief look at two quarterly reports from the past week. We've got a popular restaurant chain on the menu, as well as a DVD-rental business that is causing Hollywood a lot of headaches.

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) reported flat sales revenue in the fourth quarter. And when I say flat, I mean it: $400.6 million versus $400.4 million. On an adjusted basis, net income was 28 cents per share, representing an increase of 87%. This was four pennies ahead of estimates.

Cheesecake Factory's (CAKE) stock has broken out of a trading range, and that's one major reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for the company's shares, first recommended on June 25, 2009, at a price of $16.30.

The U.S.'s frugal consumer era has hit the restaurant sector hard, and there will be many chain restaurant casualties, but Cheesecake won't be one. Don't expect anything spectacular from CAKE in FY2010 -- flattish to slightly higher same-store sales, and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a net zero increase in restaurants operated.

The U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era will lead to many casualties in the restaurant chain sector, but The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) won't be one, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for CAKE, first recommended on June 25, 2009 at a price of $16.30.

Don't expect anything spectacular from CAKE in FY2009 -- flattish to slightly higher same store sales, and only a slight increase in revenue, with most likely a net zero increase in restaurants operated. The aforementioned doesn't sound like much, but at the retail/restaurant chain end of the commerce spectrum, survival is the name of the game under these economic conditions, and Cheesecake Factory will.

It goes without saying that, in general, I believe one of the worst American inventions has been the restaurant chain. Chains represent a vast wasteland, from a culinary standpoint, along with other shortcomings. The citizens of France wonder how Americans tolerate such horrible dining options. Comment les Américains tolèrent de tels aliments? Moreover, in the U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' era, several chains are destined to close.

But one or two chains represent an exception to the above, and The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) is one. Here's why:

Can you believe Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) traded below $5 last November?

I can. Its model of big meals and big cheesecake appeared vulnerable to the deep recession. Would consumers cut out the fat in their dining budget?

Apparently not, as the stock is up more than 3 times since hitting the bottom.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded MICROS Systems (NASDAQ:MCRS) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's cost cutting is running ahead of Street expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes companies will beat EPS estimates given lower commodity costs, focus on cost controls, and reduced drag of inefficient, new restaurants on unit level margins. Additionally, they believe reduced mortgage payments from refinancing will incrementally help traffic.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its target price to $15.
• American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Micron (NYSE:MU) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Analyst upgrades:

• ING upgraded Roche (OTC: RHHBY) to Buy from Hold as it believes Roche will not pay more than $100/share for Genentech (NYSE: DNA) and that the Avastin adjuvant data due April 2009 provides significant upside potential.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as it believes sentiment is at an all-time low and the stock has limited downside. The firm set a $5 target on shares.
  
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Comerica (NYSE: CMA) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing valuation that adequately reflects credit deterioration in its commercial-heavy loan portfolio and aggressive government action.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Pinnacle Entertainment (NYSE: PNK) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.