"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."
"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.
"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.
The current dividend yield of 5.8% remains very generous and far above most other stocks in the sector. After some of my high dividend stock recommendations either under performed or simply cut their distribution, it is reassuring to see that PDS not only is maintaining its dividend, but in this particular case continues to pay out monthly, allowing for better compounding of the yield.
The stock closed today at $27.15, up 75.5% from $15.47 when I recommended the stock three months ago. If you got into the stock back then you would still be receiving over a 10% yield. Last year I had several high flyers but not all of them stayed up so I am watching Precision closely for signs of weakness or changes in the business.
"The recent decline in gold from above $1,000 is prompting gold bears to say that the great gold bull market has reversed itself," says Martin Hutchinson who states, "Let me say right now: They're wrong."
In his Money Map Reporter, he explains, "Thanks to three key catalysts, we may well see gold at $1,500 an ounce this year, if not higher." Here's his outlook and a trio of ways to play this trend.
"These three catalysts – worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand for gold, and gold's past performance – have already ignited a powerful rally that's virtually certain to carry gold to much higher price points, despite the breather the rally appears to be taking right now.
"Don't be fooled. Every rally needs a catalyst – something that ignites and then fuels the bullish trend. As noted above, gold has three. Let's take a look at each of them:
1. Monetary policy: More than for any other investment, gold's price depends primarily on the world's monetary policy. When monetary policy is loose, as it was in the 1970s, gold prices soar. When it is tight, as in the 1980s, prices decline sharply.
"Jacobs offers broad-based, bumper-to-bumper technical services. With over 54,000 employees staffing 160 offices in 20 countries, Jacobs is one of the world's largest and most diverse providers of professional and technical services.
"And it's keeping plenty busy building and upgrading infrastructure the world over. Its latest big contract win -- worth about $550 million over a three-year period -- comes from the Louisiana Department of Education for post-Katrina reconstruction.
"The work will cover the replacement of damaged or destroyed school facilities as well as the construction of temporary facilities.
"Almost untouched by the subprime scandal and the subsequent credit fallout, Canada's banks are strong and their risk of writeoffs are consider by most analysts as minor," notes Genia Turanova and Gregory Dorsey in Leeb's Income Performance Letter.
"Toronto-Dominion and its subsidiaries, collectively known as TD Bank Financial Group, serve more than 14 million customers. The group offers a full range of financial products and services including wholesale banking securities, personal and business banking, wealth management and U.S. personal and commercial banking.
"TD Bank is looking to expand its US presence by acquiring New Jersey-based Commerce Bancorp. After the acquisition is completed, TD's US banking operations will double. As for the hot topic of all financials these days – its subprime exposure – Commerce Bancorp's $16 billion loan portfolio has no subprime exposure.
After hitting a one-year low of $54.93 last March, the stock has hit a new one-year high today. POT opened this morning at $173.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $171.11 and a high of $175.46. As of 12:20, POT is trading at $173.90, up $6.23 (3.7%). The chart for POT bullish but deteriorating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $130 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just six weeks as long as POT is above $130 at May expiration. POT would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
POT hasn't been below $130 since January and has shown support around $154 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/24) disappoint, but even if that happens, that position could be protected by support the stock might find around $150 from it's 50-day moving average.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in POT or MOS.
"The best thing to do in this market volatility is to take a deep breath and say, 'This too shall pass'," says Neil Macneale, who buys only stock split candidates for his 2-for-1 newsletter. Here is his latest.
"In general, getting out of the stock market at this time would be exactly the wrong thing to do. If 'buy low, sell high' means anything, we should be buying stocks now with whatever cash we can find. Otherwise, the ship will sail without us. Of course, given the exact market bottom is not knowable until after the fact.
"Indeed, new purchases may not be perfectly timed, but we continue to believe that it will be better than not buying at all. And because our policy with our 2-for-1 portfolio is to buy something every month, at least one of our purchases over the next several months will be very close to perfectly timed.
After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.64 last week. NVS opened this morning at $50.21. So far today the stock has hit a low of $49.70 and a high of $50.44. As of 11:55, NVS is trading at $50.19, up $1.19 (2.4%). The chart for NVS looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just 2 months as long as NVS is above $45 at May expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money.
This post is one of several on business heirs apparent. Let us know in the comments whether you think Galen or Alannah Weston should take up the reigns of Weston, and be sure to check out the other heir apparent posts.
W. Galen Weston was once an heir apparent himself, taking the bakery founded by his grandfather George Weston in 1882 and expanding it into one of the largest food conglomerates in North America, George Weston Ltd. (TSX: WN), which includes such brands as President's Choice, Entenmann's, Brownberry, Thomas', Boboli, Ovaltine, and Twinings. A fixture on the Forbes billionaire list, Galen Weston also holds a controlling stake in the Loblaws supermarket chain, and took the Selfridges department store private a few years ago. His heirs apparent are his children, son Galen G. and daughter Alannah.
Galen G. Weston was installed as executive chairman of Loblaw Companies (TSX: L) in 2006, and faces something of a challenge if he is to prove his mettle. Since his arrival, the company has experienced its first annual loss in decades, share prices have slumped to a ten-year low, and opening superstores to fend off competition from the likes of Wal-Mart Canada hasn't worked out so well. The company is now focusing on its supply chain and supporting infrastructure, as well as limiting the types of merchandise the stores sell. Such efforts have helped the company swing back into the black.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Agnico-Eagle Mines is worth a look.
Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) is a Canada-based gold producer with mining operations located in northwestern Quebec, mine construction projects in northwestern Quebec and northern Finland, and exploration and development activities in Canada, Finland, northern Mexico and the western United States.
Analysts like the fact that Agnico produces about 270,000 ounces of gold annually, and has about five million ounces of gold in proved and provable reserves.
"Unlike gold mining companies, of which there are dozens, there are only five major publicly-traded silver producers. The limited number of investment options concentrates Wall Street's interest when silver is hot, and can send prices sharply up.
"Silver Standard controls the world's largest published in-ground silver resources of any publicly-traded silver company. The company has properties in Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Canada, the U.S. and Australia. All properties have either been purchased (a rarity in the mining industry) or optioned at a fraction of the current silver price.
"In an industry where most silver is found as a by-product from mining other metals, it is also significant that the company's output is approximately 72% silver. The remaining metals produced are gold, tin, zinc, copper and lead - none of which is more than 8% of the total output.
"Silver Standard's status as a pure-play further concentrates interest in the company when silver is in the spotlight. Silver Standard is also leveraged by the high cost of extracting the metal.
"Once silver prices cross the breakeven point, nearly every dollar goes to profits. Silver Standard must be considered speculative. But if you are willing to accept the risk, and a probable roller coaster ride, the stock could be very rewarding."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Monday oil prices are unlikely to fall below $60 per barrel, Bloomberg News reported Monday.
Ali al-Naimi, head of the nation with the world's largest oil reserves and highest oil exports, did not indicate whether OPEC was leaning toward maintaining current production quotas in the face of oil's most-recent price rise. Oil has increased about $15 in the past two weeks to more than $100 per barrel, as concerns about underperforming U.S. stocks due to the sluggish U.S. economy, and inflation fears, have prompted investors to pile into oil as an investment and as an inflation hedge. Oil closed Wednesday up 61 cents to $102.45 per barrel.
Last week, OPEC President and Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil told reporters in Algiers that "we don't expect to put more oil in the market."
New oil floor: $60?
Al-Naimi told Bloomberg News yesterday that obtaining energy from harder-to-refine sources, such as tar sands and alternative fuels, costs about $60-70 per barrel "and, therefore, a line has been drawn below which the price cannot fall."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 150 points as I peck away on my laptop. I was looking to see what stocks were holding up on a down day, and sure enough one of my favorites showed up -- Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), a stock I recommended two months ago.
I apologize if I seem like a cheerleader, or a play-by-play announcer, but it was only two weeks ago that I posted on what were already strong gains, and this one keeps going up (even though its business is to drill down...).From my original December recommendation at $15.47 per share, PDS has moved up to $22.61 by midday today and climbing, for a 46% gain. This is when the Dow industrials are down almost 7%.
"Harvest Energy Trust (NYSE: HTE) is exactly what we love – a company with incredible upside and hefty 'dividends' that's being ignored byWall Street," says Keith Fitz-Gerald.
The editor of Money Morning explains, "But the stock is not being ignored by the company's executives. In fact, insiders are buying like crazy. And while this by itself doesn't guarantee higher prices, it's an important indicator of things to come, especially when oil prices are destined to increase in the coming years.
"Harvest Energy is located in Calgary and functions as a Canadian royalty trust, which means its profits are funneled back to investors in the form of 'distributions.' Harvest engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of petroleum, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in western Canada.
"And the best part is, it's been tamped down in the last two quarters. You see, management has reduced its distribution by 21%, citing volatile energy prices and the new tax rules set to take effect in Canada in 2012. It also carries a lot of debt after having consolidated purchases of other oil and gas trusts and large private producers over the last two years. The company also purchased a refinery complex – and that didn't come cheap.
"Now here's where things get really good: Plain and simple, Harvest is sitting on oil – a lot of it. Large multi-million barrel reserves, with an estimated 9.3 years of proven and probable reserves using conventional extraction techniques. It's also sitting on over 1 billion barrels of untapped oil sands.
It's foolish to get too excited about short term success unless you are a rapid fire trader. However, the first six weeks of 2008 have been dismal, so any success is a sigh of relief. I enjoy writing for BloggingStocks, in part because of the dialogue it allows, making it a good sounding board for things I am considering in my investment world.
In December, Canada's largest drilling contractor with a fleet of 240 service rigs was $15.47 per share, but last Friday it closed at $19.12, for a nice bounce of 24%. This when the market is down over 8% and almost nothing is looking very promising. When I first called PDS to readers' attention, it had a price to earnings ratio (P/E) near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. The stock's appreciation has raised the P/E to 6.26 and the yield declined to 7.9% -- still very generous.
I have no crystal ball so predictions are hard to come by, but a closer look at PDS is worth while and you might like what you see. Of course comments are welcome.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. Disclosure: I do own shares of PDS.