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Up and down in the stock market: The sad saga of trader #804

It seems like it happened years ago, but it's been only about a month since Wall Street had its huge, post-plummet surge. Touting it as the biggest one-day point gain in the history of the market, newspapers around the country featured pictures of financial industry professionals grinning and bouncing, hugging each other like it was V-J day and they were all unwed nurses wearing fresh lipstick.

In The New York Daily News, the stock market dancing monkey du Jour was a red-headed guy with a close-cropped hairdo, extravagant sideburns, and the standard blue trader's jacket. In picture after picture, the paper featured him leering, giving a thumbs-up, and hugging a burly fellow trader who was a dead-ringer for actor Michael Lerner.

At the time, I heaped scorn upon the head of the poor unknown trader, mocking his excessive enthusiasm, mildly frightening grin, and overall air of mindless faith in the system. Being something of a cynic, I knew that today's high would be almost matched by tomorrow's low, which would be followed by another dizzying high, and so on as the market tried to find equilibrium. I saw the redheaded trader's excessive enthusiasm as indicative of the kind of cocksure investing that got us into this mess in the first place.

Continue reading Up and down in the stock market: The sad saga of trader #804

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: GOOG, PG, AAPL, COH, MCD, WMT, SIRI

Following the week we have just endured, many would find it hard to return to the stock market any time soon, despite so many pundits calling the market bottom on Thursday. Bad news just keeps amassing: the Euro-zone is officially in recession, unemployment in the U.S. and globally is on the rise, the housing market is far from any sustainable recovery, the auto sector is a mess and so on.

But it is always in these hard times, when things are cheap, that bargains can be found. While cheap can be meaningless during these times as Jim Cramer said this week and Joe Lazzaro seconded, perhaps some value could be found after all. What, then, did BloggingStocks contributors find worthwhile this week?

First, let me start, not by gloating, but by pointing out that on more than one occasion, more than one contributor has suggested to steer clear of Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC). The electronics retailer has filed for bankruptcy Monday and the NYSE has suspended the company's common stock immediately. The stock is now traded over the market under CCTYQ.

Sirius XM Radio, Inc (NASDAQ: SIRI) reported a quarter that caused Steven Mallas to pause and think. The only way he sees Sirius is as a very -- very -- speculative and risky play. Since the stock has been beaten so much and is so cheap, if it doesn't disappear by the time the economy turns, it could be interesting. But only if one has the cash to burn. Jamie Dlugosch adds a reminder about SIRI's debt, hoping it would earn a reprieve from its debt holders as it tries to operate as one company. "Just imagine what this company could do in a normal economy. It would be truly tremendous."

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: GOOG, PG, AAPL, COH, MCD, WMT, SIRI

Not exactly the Best Buy (BBY)

Christmas came early for electronics retailer Best Buy (NYSE: BBY). Its largest competitor, Circuit City (NYSE: CC), waived the white flag of surrender by filing for bankruptcy. Free to operate as the single largest retailer for electronics, good times are surely here for BBY, right?

Not so fast, buster. The long-term benefits of a weakened competitive landscape are no doubt positive for BBY, but only if it manages to survive what most now believe will be a long and deep recession. This is not your ordinary recession. Businesses are failing and more are sure to follow. No firm, no matter its size or supposed strength, is immune, and all sectors are feeling the impact of deflation.

That deflation is bad news for companies that rely on the consumer for business. A sudden decline in spending can have significantly negative consequences. Employees, rent and other fixed costs must be paid no matter what is happening on the top line.You better hope your balance sheet can withstand multiple quarters of losses, because that is what is transpiring right before our very eyes.

Continue reading Not exactly the Best Buy (BBY)

Retailers react to 'seismic changes in consumer behavior'

Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY) today gave a profit warning that was simply breathtaking.

"Since mid-September, rapid, seismic changes in consumer behavior have created the most difficult climate we've ever seen. Best Buy simply can't adjust fast enough to maintain our earnings momentum for this year," said CEO Brad Anderson, vice chairman and chief executive officer of Best Buy, in a press release.

Same store sales fell a whopping 7.6% in October as consumers stayed away from the big box retailer in droves. Best Buy expects these sales to plunge between five and 15% in the four months remaining in fiscal 2009. Revenue is expected to be between $43.7 billion and $44.5 billion. Annual earnings are seen at $2.30 to $2.90. All of these figures are significantly below expectations.

Chief Operating Officer Brian Dunn said "In 42 years of retailing, we've never seen such difficult times for the consumer. People are making dramatic changes in how much they spend, and we're not immune from those forces."

Given Circuit City Stores Inc.'s (NYSE: CC) recent bankruptcy, it is hardly a shock that Best Buy is having problems as well. People struggling to pay their credit cards and mortgages are not going to be shopping for new plasma screen TVs. Some many not do any holiday shopping at all, which has got some retailers -- even those holding their own -- watching their bottom lines. Even Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is worried about the consumer.

Continue reading Retailers react to 'seismic changes in consumer behavior'

Numbers of stocks near 52-week lows are staggering

Whenever someone asks me if a stock can go lower, I reply "of course." As investors have learned the hard way over the past few months, a company's shares can go all the way to zero. Just ask holders of Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) (bankruptcy), General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) (near-insolvency) and Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) (crushing debt load) whose shares are heading off a cliff.

The number of companies trading at or near their 52-week lows is staggering. Investors are faced with some of the biggest bargains they have seen in decades or the potential to get burned even further as corporate earnings deteriorate further. I am not sure whether to dip my toe further in the market or to invest in more Mason jars that I can fill with the remnants of nest egg and bury in my backyard.

One thing is for certain, stocks are getting cheap. The challenge for investors to figure out is where the market has thrown out the baby with the bathwater. Here are some examples:

  • Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). The largest search engine company is trading at near a three-year low. Chief Executive Eric Schmidt has said the economy is far worse than he expected. The company traded at $307.93, near its 52-week low of $300.52. CNBC's Jim Goldman is baffled by the market's reaction to Google, as am I.
  • Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) has had more ups and downs than Cher. Shares of the big bank last traded at $10.80, near its low of $10.34. It is down more than 63% this year. Remember, sometimes stocks are cheap for a good reason -- like business is bad.
  • Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and gave bullish guidance. The market, though, could have cared less. Shares of the cereal maker are trading at about $48, near their 52-week low of $45.25. They are down more than 8% this year.
  • General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) has been in Wall Street's dog house so long it should consider a long-term lease. The conglomerate trades for about $17.73. Its 52-week low is $17.27.
  • Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS) already has gotten its lump of coal from investors worried about a horrid holiday season. Shares of the retailer are down more than 77% this year. The stock is trading at $4.66, near its 52-week low of $4.23.

Why do so many analysts like GM, Ford, Circuit City?

This morning, investors were stunned to learn that Deutsche Bank analysts put out a note arguing that shares of General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) may be worthless in a year. Though the shares of the automaker are tumbling, this call shows once again that most analysts are a day late and a dollar short. Unfortunately, that's pretty typical.

Seriously, the troubles of GM and the rest of auto industry are well-known to anyone with a pulse. Auto sales are horrid. Democrats are pushing for a government bailout, which GM does not deserve. Retirees are getting squeezed. Yet to many analysts, this is a stock worth holding. According to Thomson/First Call, five rate GM's stock a Hold and one a Buy. There are four Underperforms and two Sells. That's shocking. If these analysts had any guts, they would all rate GM a Sell before it runs out of money.

The case at Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is similar. Only two analysts rate the struggling automaker a Sell. Seven rate it a Buy and one an Underperform. Maybe these geniuses don't read a newspaper or a website. Perhaps they are betting on a massive government bailout to help Detroit. Either way, they show that investors certainly aren't being helped by Wall Street's wisemen.

Continue reading Why do so many analysts like GM, Ford, Circuit City?

Best way to play Best Buy

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Jeff Macke

One of the constant tensions of what TV Producers want and the way trading actually works is the reality of idea flow. TV Folks want 20 or so picks an hour. If I'm lucky, Mr. Market hands me one or maybe two fat pitches a week.

Today's fat pitch was shorting Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) into the gap higher on the news of Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) going Chapter 11. No need to repeat the logic of the trade as I did so this morning. By way of an update, I've taken off about 10% of the trade as BBY rolls into the red. I think BBY is in exactly the same position it was before this morning's announcement about CC. Said position isn't appropriate for a family web site but it starts with S and rhymes with Mood.

So why take off some of the trade? For the same reason you tip the dealer after a couple blackjacks; not doing so invites karmic retribution. BBY's low for the year is $20. For a trade, it's got room to at least $24. Fundamentally, Best Buy is facing a world where it competes with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT) and a rival with a whole bunch of product to liquidate. I won't let the trade go negative on me but suffice to it say being short a bit o' Best Buy isn't going to be keeping me up at night.

Are retailers trying to boost sales by being nice to customers?

Funny thing happened during my family's recent visit to the mall yesterday: the sales help noticed that we were alive.

They said "hello," offered us a coupon and --- get this -- thanked us for stopping by. My wife and I were shocked to get this level of service from our local mall where like many shopping emporiums customer service was an after-thought. Truth be told, I wonder how many sales people working at malls can even spell "customer service."

I guess you can call it the upside of declining retail sales. Companies are scrambling for every customer they can get because holiday sales this year are expected to be godawful. Michael Nemira, chief economist of the International Council of Shopping Centers, recently lowered his forecast for holiday sales growth for November and December period to 1 percent growth from 1.7%, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Retailers ranging from Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) to Neiman Marcus have posted terrible sales. Even Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), which has posted better-than-expected results, remains nervous about the consumer. Circuit City Stores Inc.'s (NYSE: CC) filing for bankruptcy protection today only heightened these fears.

That's why retailers need to pay even closer attention to the customer than ever before. Given the precarious state of many household budgets, shoppers will have less tolerance than ever for rude or incompetent retail staff. They are putting up with enough troubles in their own lives. Retailers who do not understand this reality will have an even less joyous holiday season.

Why Circuit City was electrocuted

Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) filed for bankruptcy. It was only a matter of time as the clock started ticking in March 2007. The CEO who sent Circuit City into its doom loop got fired in September. Today, its new CEO James Marcum, "leveraged its history" into bankruptcy.

I first posted about Circuit City's egregious mis-management here. The problem was that its former CEO, Philip Schoonver, had the brilliant idea of cutting costs by firing its 3,400 top people. The people he fired happened to be the ones who knew what they were talking about when it came to electronics and those sales people went to work for the competition, taking their customers with them. The result for Circuit City was a plunge in sales and bigger losses. And Circuit City's board took way too long to realize the error of its ways.

Now shoppers looking for holiday bargains can go into the Circuit City stores and try to get deals. The fate of Circuit City will serve as an important lesson for any manager: There's a smart way to cut costs and a dumb way. The dumb way is to fire the experienced sales and service people who keep your customers coming in the door. The smart way is to figure out which parts of your company are not adding value to customers and eliminate them.

Schoonover chose the dumb way and he bankrupted the company.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Circuit City securities.

Options Update: Index volatility stays elevated, suggesting continued price movement

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 56.09; 10-day moving average is 61.55.

NASDAQ 100-QQQQ overall implied volatility at 52; 26-week average is 37.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 76; 26-week average is 46.

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) closed at $25.59. Circuit City (NYSE: CC) filed for Chapter 11. BBY December option implied volatility of 86 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Circuit City files for bankruptcy

The death spiral of once proud electronics retailer Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) is now complete.

In a press release issued this morning, the Richmond, Virginia company announced that it had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. There had been some speculation that Circuit City would put off a filing until after the holiday season, but the company's inability to convince suppliers to ship merchandise made that impossible:
Faced with the need to secure ongoing vendor support and to ensure adequate merchandise flow to stores during the important holiday season, the company has determined that it would be in the best interest of its stakeholders to file for reorganization relief under Chapter 11. Operating under the protection of Chapter 11 will provide the company's vendors with assurances that they will be paid for merchandise the company receives post-filing so the company can be sufficiently stocked for the holiday selling season.
The stock is trading in the 12-cent per share range, down from a 52-week high of $8.24. Back in 2006, the company's stock traded as high as $30 per share. In 2000, the shares briefly traded at more than $50 per share.

The company had already announced plans to shutter 155 domestic stores, and no additional closings have been announced. Circuit City has secured $1.1 billion in debtor-in-possession financing that will allow it to continue its operations.

Shares of Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) are trading up about 5% as investors anticipate an opportunity for sizable market share gains as a result of the demise of the company's biggest competitor.

Circuit City plans more job cuts

The carnage at Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) continues as the company flails desperately -- and probably futilely -- to avoid a bankruptcy filing. The company announced that is laying off hundreds of workers at its Richmond, VA, headquarters, on top of previously announced store closings, liquidations, and 6,800 store-level layoffs. This is all in the past week.

Spokesman Bill Cimino told The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that "Out of respect for our associates, we're not commenting" on the details of the layoffs.

The company's stock closed at 25 cents on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $8.24. Back in 2006, the company's stock traded as high as $30 per share. In 2000, the shares briefly traded at more than $50 per share.

The company's cash problems and inability to get suppliers to extend credit will prevent the company from being competitive during the holiday selling season that is its last chance to save itself.

Stock picks and pans for troubled times: Buy GE, F, HAIN, STP, ATVI ...

To say that the past week has been an eventful one would be a great understatement. On November 4th, the American people elected a new president, Barack Obama. Leading up to this historic event, markets rallied, but then lost some 10% in the following two days as the economic drama was relentless. On Friday, despite Ford and GM posting massive losses, and despite the jobs report showing numbers not seen in 14 years, markets are rallying (by noon).

To stay ahead of the market is impossible these days, and all one can do is hope we're nearing a bottom and current picks could only benefit. Following the different events this week and the still ongoing earnings season, here are some stock picks and pans from BloggingStocks contributors:

Obama Picks:

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was Amey Stone's Obama pick due to near-term catalysts as well as long term solid fundamentals -- not to mention the 6% yield.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) was Michael Rainey's Obama pick. Since Ford is the strongest of the Big Three, Obama will likely choose to save it ... and perhaps GM. Ford had just reported earnings Friday, posting a loss.

Continue reading Stock picks and pans for troubled times: Buy GE, F, HAIN, STP, ATVI ...

Obama Pick: Buy Best Buy

Now that Senator Barack Obama has turned into President-elect Barack Obama, I feel that the retail sector needs to be looked at. And one of the better ideas out there just might be Best Buy (NYSE: BBY).

Here's my thinking. Obama seems to be a Democrat who, whether he wants to promote this or not, is into wealth redistribution. I believe he will do what he can to increase the taxes on wealthy individuals and lower them on not-so-wealthy individuals. Furthermore, I anticipate more stimulus checks under his administration. I don't think that the economy is going to get better overnight once he takes office in January, and I would imagine that he'll want to send more money to the masses to see if our consumer culture might be able to save the country from its current financial mess by spending freely. Since Wall Street fat cats have been reaping huge bonuses, I think an Obama administration will see fit to spread wealth to those who don't live in mansions built on the failed promise (and premise for that matter) of mortgage-backed securities.

Continue reading Obama Pick: Buy Best Buy

Circuit City braces for the worst, more upside for Best Buy?

Yesterday, Brian White wrote that Circuit City's death spiral begins: Closing 155 stores and exiting markets.

Of course, saying that that was the beginning of Circuit City's (NYSE: CC) death spiral is a bit like saying that the death spiral of the horse and buggy began when the Cadillac Escalade debuted. Circuit City has been reeling from a string of horrendous management decisions that began when then-CEO Phil Schoonover decided that a good way to cut costs would be to fire the company's top 3,400 salespeople.

The company needs a gangbusters Christmas season that seems unlikely given the economic environment. But in a catch-22 that would be funny if it weren't so pathetic, the company probably won't even have a chance. The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required), "
The "credit noose is tightening." That's a quote from RBC Capital Markets analyst Scot Ciccarelli. He noted that, "it's unlikely Circuit City will be able to get the inventory it needs for its remaining stores during the holidays."

Circuit City's demise is sad for all the hardworking rank and file employees.

On the upside, Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) is obviously poised to benefit from the decreased competition. Does that mean you should buy that stock? Probably not, given that it already bounced 3% on the news yesterday morning (it closed near $28), and given that the economic outlook is worsening. Long-term investors may want to keep an eye on it, however.

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Last updated: May 24, 2012: 08:26 PM

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