It has been a tough year for investors. We have been dealing with recession fears, housing market worries, high gasoline prices and a very weak U.S dollar. As much as we would love to say that the worst is behind us, we still could be in for some more rocky times ahead. So its best to try to figure out which stocks would be best to avoid for the time being.
Richard Gibbons wrote up a nice piece over on The Motley Fool that looks at some of the stocks that we would be wise to stay away from at this time. Regardless good or bad times, he is convinced there are always ways to make money, but in order to find the winners, it is also necessary to pull out the losers.
So how can we separate out the winners from the losers?
Gibbons seems to have a simple answer for this. He believes there is really no use in wasting our time trying to separate the winners from the losers as there are so many great cheap stocks that could offer us a chance to make money. Gibbons' advice is to not choose ugly and risky companies that could put our hard earned money at risk. To makes this clear, he uses a baseball analogy, expressing his options for the curve balls instead of the fastballs.
Health insurer Cigna Corp. (NYSE: CI) reported a plunge of 80% in first-quarter profit this morning. The results were dragged down by deep charges related to its reinsurance business and litigation. The company missed analysts' earnings targets, and also issued a warning for its full-year earnings, sending its shares down in premarket.
For the quarter, Cigna said that its profit dropped to $58 million, or 21 cents per share, compared with $289 million, or 98 cents, reported in the same period a year ago. Excluding one-time items, the insurer's earnings numbers would have come at 94 cents per share, one cent below the average estimate of analysts, according to Thomson Financial .
Looking at revenue, Cigna posted a rise of 4.5% in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. Analysts had been expecting to see revenue of $4.55 billion, while the actual number was slightly higher, at $4.57 billion. The company said that the number of clients who joined its health plans jumped 5.5% to 10.4 million.
Early today, Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) claimed that it had won a major legal battle in its efforts to get banks to fund a private equity buyout of the broadcast company. According toReuters: "Clear Channel said Judge John Gabriel of the Bexar County district court in Texas found on Wednesday night that the company would suffer irreparable harm if the banks refused to fund the merger."
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and six other banks were to fund the $22 billion takeover by Bain Capital and Thomas H Lee.
The banks, looking at their balance sheets and a recession hitting the media industry, decided to walk. Financial companies have LBO debt on their books and are not able to sell it to other institutions because of the credit crunch.
The legal news is nice for Clear Channel, but the banks are not going to accept a ruling from Bexar County. The dispute has a long way to go.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Yahoo!, Cigna and Aegean Marine were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) to Buy from Hold as they believe Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is unlikely to walk away from Yahoo! and that there is potential Microsoft could bid $34/share.
Credit Suisse upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's favorable business mix.
Stephens upgraded shares of Aegean Marine (NYSE: ANW) to Overweight from Equal Weight on valuation as they see an attractive entry point at current levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:
JMP Securities raised D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) to Strong Buy from Outperform and Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
JP Morgan cut Philips (NYSE:PHG) from "overweight" to "neutral" according toMarketWatch.
Merrill Lynch downgraded Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) from "neutral" to "sell" according toBriefing.com. The news service also writes that Citigroup upgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) from "hold" to "buy".
CIGNA (NYSE:CI) was raised to "outperform" at Credit Suisse according to247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Analog Semiconductors, Hill International and Varian Semi were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI), Fairchild Semi (NYSE: FCS), and Intersil Corp (NASDAQ: ISIL) to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm believes Analog semis have one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles in technology and expects the group to outperform in 2008.
B. Riley raised Hill International (NYSE: HIL) to Buy from Neutral following the company's Q4 results which they believe continued to reflect strong growth across both segments of the business.
ThinkEquity upgraded Varian Semi (NASDAQ: VSEA) to Accumulate from Source of Funds citing valuation and expectations that the company will end up with over 70% of the overall implant market past 2008. The firm adds that scale and pricing power should drive upside to margins.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS) was raised to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
JP Morgan upgraded Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL) to Overweight from Neutral.
UBS upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Buy from Neutral.
Outfits that manage health care plans bring an amazing array of business and technical specialists together to deal with a service that can be as complex socially as it is medically. One of the most successful U.S. practitioners of the art is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Humana (NYSE: HUM) provides health insurance coverage and related services through various employer groups and government-sponsored programs. It offers Medicare Advantage health plans and prescription drug coverage to members throughout the United States and administers managed care plans for other government agencies and the military. It also offers health plans and specialty products to commercial employers and individuals. In all of its programs, Humana serves more than 13 million members. Aetna (NYSE: AET) and Cigna (NYSE: CI) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it affirmed its in-line FY08 EPS guidance of $5.30 to $5.50. It also reiterated its forecast for a net 2008 membership gain of 200,000-250,000 in Medicare Advantage enrollment.
Sometimes our biggest medical emergency is the cost of the drugs we need to treat our physical ailments. There is a firm in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, that actively pursues initiatives to cut increasing drug costs and it has some clout. It is the nation's leading pharmacy benefit manager and operates the country's largest mail order pharmacy.
Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) serves some 65 million members in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Patients fill their prescription needs through a network of close to 60,000 pharmacies, a mail-order program, or the company's online pharmacy. Medco helps contain pharmacy health care costs for private and public employers, health plans, labor unions, government agencies, and individuals served by the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program. Cigna (NYSE: CI) and Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) are major competitors. IBM (NYSE: IBM) is a major customer.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Macrovision, SAIC, Inc and Dassault Systemes were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded shares of Macrovision (NASDAQ: MVSN) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they think the stock looks "very cheap" if the Gemstar (NASDAQ: GMST) deal does not get done; if the deal does get done, they think investors will get paid, but admits it may take longer.
JP Morgan upgraded SAIC Inc. (NYSE: SAI) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect the company to beat consensus estimates as margins surprise to the upside given cost reductions and cargo detection sales.
Dassault Systemes (NASDAQ: DASTY) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley as they find the company's recurring business and lack of exposure to troubled markets attractive in the current market.
OTHER UPGRADES:
GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) was upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Bear Stearns.
Lehman upgraded Cigna (NYSE: CI) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Citigroup upgraded Alpha Bank (OTC: ALBKY) to Buy from Hold.
So many things are sold on the Web now that it can be difficult to remember when it all got started. Some might be surprised to know, for example, that the first Internet-based sale of a U.S. health insurance policy was made over ten years ago. The firm involved was a Mountain View, California outfit that serves nearly 400,000 customers today.
eHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: EHTH) is an online source of health insurance for individuals, families and small businesses. The company presents health insurance information in a user-friendly format, enabling the comparison and purchase of health insurance products that best meet consumers' needs. The firm is licensed throughout the United States, operating in partnership with some 160 health insurance carriers. It provides health, dental, and vision insurance products from the likes of Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET), Cigna Corporation (NYSE: CI) and Coventry Health Care, Inc. (NYSE: CVH).
eHealth pleased investors earlier in the month, when it reported 3rd Quarter (Q3) earnings per share (EPS) of 15 cents and revenues of $23 million. Analysts had been expecting 12 cents and $22.4 million. Management also guided fiscal year (FY) 2007 EPS to 51-55 cents (48 cent consensus) and FY07 revenues to $87.2-$88.0 million ($86.8M consensus). Estimated membership grew 35%year over year. EHTH shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "pennant" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit pennants moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
Brokers recommend the issue with four "strong buys", three "holds" and a "sell". Analysts see a 32% growth rate, through the next year. The EHTH Sales Growth rate (37.72%), Net Profit Margin (25.05%), Return on Assets (27.98%), Return on Investment (32.14%) and Return on Equity (103.02%) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 67 percent of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $17.67 and $34.89. A stop-loss of $28.70 if one were to consider the stock looks good here.
CIGNA Corp. (NYSE: CI) reported third-quarter earnings this morning that rose 22%, strengthened by increased membership, reduced medical expenses, and growth in specialty services. Cigna officials now expect 2007 earnings to come in at $3.80 to $4 a share. However, a warning from the company about 2008 earnings is pushing the stock lower. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on CI.
After hitting a one-year high of $57.61 in June and falling thereafter, the stock has risen over the past two months. This morning, CI opened at $51.25. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.63 and a high of $51.25. As of 11:15, CI is trading at $49.50, down $2.25 (-4.3%). The chart for CI looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
What if politics was like the stock market and you could buy politicians you like and sell the ones you didn't without envelopes of sequentially numbered small money orders in the same Chinese handwriting or cold cash hidden in the freezer?
For those rich enough -- they can buy a politician or two. The rest of us probably could rent a couple minutes of time with a big campaign contribution, and get lots of promises from a politician. Knowing the integrity of politicians and the value of political promises I am not sure how good of an investment politicians turn out to be.
Maybe you are one of the people smart enough to pick up a couple of bucks around the office at election time with bets on who is going to win. I have to admit I lost the last political bet I made. Good thing it was only a buck. What if there was a stock market where you could buy and sell shares in the candidates? The candidates would move up and down every day and those of us who are financial analysts could quantify the likelihood of people winning based on how bets are placed.
Now I am not into horse racing, poker or sports betting; but I do have to check up on the political bets every once in a while. With real money on the line there is a big incentive to be right. If you do not like the odds you can jump into the market and take the other side of the action. So what do the bookies think is going to happen in the coming election? Well it appears that Clinton is the favorite for the Democratic nominee with 67.8% and the Republican Rudy Giuliani leads the GOP with 35%.
Diagnostic medical tests guide physicians through the process of diagnosing diseases and measuring the progress of recovery. The leading U. S. provider of diagnostic testing services is a Lyndhurst, New Jersey outfit that performs personal health testing on more than 150 million patients a year. It was the first laboratory in the country to achieve ISO 9001 certification.
Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) provides diagnostic testing services to the healthcare industry. Offerings include routine blood tests, pap tests, urinalyses, pregnancy tests, asthma and allergy tests, gene-based tests and tests for drugs of abuse. It also provides anatomic pathology services, testing for clinical trials, and risk assessment services for the life insurance industry. Through its Nichols Institute Diagnostics subsidiary, the firm manufactures and markets diagnostic test kits and systems to hospitals, clinical laboratories and dialysis centers. Quest operates more than 2,000 sample collection centers, 30 primary labs and 150 rapid response labs throughout the US and in Mexico and the UK. The firm has testing contracts with such health insurers as Aetna (NYSE: AET) and Cigna (NYSE: CI).
The company surprised the Street earlier in the week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 73 cents and revenues of $1.64 billion. Analysts had been looking for 68 cents and $1.61 billion. Management also guided FY07 EPS to $2.80-2.95 ($2.80 consensus) and FY07 revenues to $6.6-6.7 billion ($6.61B consensus).
It has been a tough year for investors. We have been dealing with recession fears, housing market worries, high gasoline prices and a very weak U.S dollar. As much as we would love to say that the worst is behind us, we still could be in for some more rocky times ahead. So its best to try to figure out which stocks would be best to avoid for the time being.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
Health insurer 
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So many things are sold on the Web now that it can be difficult to remember when it all got started. Some might be surprised to know, for example, that the first Internet-based sale of a U.S. health insurance policy was made over ten years ago. The firm involved was a Mountain View, California outfit that serves nearly 400,000 customers today.
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
Icahn's 'shock and awe' on Yahoo -- a gutsy play
Housing starts surprisingly rise in April on apartment construction
