Some people waiting for their economic stimulus checks may be in for a shock.
According to USA Today, about $2 billion in payments from 1.8 million checks are being confiscated from people who owe child support, student loans and back taxes. Taxpayers get letters from the government explaining why their bank accounts are not being stimulated and so far few have complained, according to a Treasury Department official quoted by the newspaper.
I am all for making sure that children get the financial support they deserve. People also should not be able to dodge student loan payments or tax bills. The government, though, cannot impose a one-size-fits-all solution. For instance, what if someone is laid off and is already behind in their bills? The economic stimulus is supposed to help people in need, right?
Though the economic stimulus checks have helped boost retail sales, investors should keep their expectations in check. Many of the people I know are using their stimulus checks to pay bills, not buy big-screen televisions. A good portion of my stimulus is going right back to Uncle Sam for taxes I need to pay for being self-employed. That's another rant for another time.
Shares of companies like Coach (NYSE: COH) were flying high when more people than ever were flocking to waste their money on stuff they couldn't afford.
Right at the top of the market, predictably, all the lower-end retailers thought they'd get into the act. Gap (NYSE: GPS)'s Banana Republic introduced a high-end line, and so did Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH) and AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). According to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), the economic downturn gave the companies a strong rebuke. Cache is closing some of its Cache Luxe stores and Coldwater Creek is giving up on its high-end aspirations.
But I don't think it's the economic downturn that doomed these product launches. Luxury clothing is in a tough spot, but it's certainly fared a lot better than upper-middle market companies like Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Coldwater Creek. Rather, I think companies are using a pretty familiar tactic: blame failed strategies on the economy and minimize the impact of tactical errors made by seven-figure executives.
Here's why the strategy failed: taking a brand and raising the quality/price-point is extremely difficult. The reverse is easy, but trying to convince people to pay Coach-like prices for Banana Republic clothing -- even if it's of similar quality -- is a strategy that's destined to fail. Banana Republic has established itself at a certain price point and while people would be thrilled to get the brand at a lower price, most people willing to pay more will want a bona fide luxury label.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Smith International, Cerner and Coach were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded Smith International (NYSE: SII) to Overweight from Neutral citing better risk/reward vs. group, and upside to estimates from Latin America drilling and its deepwater rig fleet. Note that Oppenheimer downgraded shares of SII based on valuation.
Jefferies believes Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN) in-line results and solid domestic bookings could alleviate the pressure on shares. Shares were raised to Buy from Hold.
Shares of Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) were raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, citing sales stabilization and compelling valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.
ThinkPanmure raised VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) to Buy from Accumulate.
SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
First, the obvious -- there are too many Coach bags and bags of its ilk, and there isn't enough steel. Second, Coach couldn't pass on a price increase to save its life. Every price increase sticks for US Steel.
Third, on the Coach call where does Lew Frankfort -- who is great! -- want to expand? The U.S. Ouch! Worst market in the world. Saturated. No growth. Feeling poor.
Where does US Steel want to expand? Doesn't matter. The demand is so great it's really an issue of shipping, as CSX's (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take) Michael Ward would tell you -- at least he told me last night on "Mad Money."
Best Performers of 2008 The 12th annual BusinessWeek 50 spotlights the 50 best performing companies in the S&P and topping this year's list is retailer Coach. Rounding out the top five are Gilead Sciences, Allegheny Technologies, Verizon, and Questar. Last year's No.1 company, Google, dropped to No.34 on the list – shares are down almost 40% from their high of 747 last November. The BusinessWeek 50 – BusinessWeek
The Next Hot Stock Sectors Amid the volatility, BusinessWeek's Gene Marcial talks with stockpicking pros about the market sectors they see leading the next major advance. Stocks: The Next Hot Sectors
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Telecom Services sector, Watsco and Key Corp were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Credit Suisse downgraded the Telecom Services sector to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe trends could weaken in 2008 given increasing wireless competition and the difficult economic environment. The broker downgraded Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Corp. (NYSE: T) to Neutral from Outperform in conjunction with the sector downgrade.
Oppenheimer downgraded Watsco (NYSE: WSO) to Perform from Outperform citing lack of near-term catalysts, further weakening in its core business, and weak 2008 earnings guidance.
RBC Capital lowered Key Corp. (NYSE: KEY) to Underperform from Sector Perform citing further credit deterioration following the company's outlook.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Thomas Weisel lowered Coach (NYSE: COH) to to Market Weight from Overweight.
What Would Buffett Buy? S&P's latest screen tracking the Berkshire bigwig's investing criteria uncovers 60 attractive names. Some of the stocks include 3M, Altera, Altria, Apple, China Mobile, Cisco, Coach, Coca-Cola, IGT, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Rio Tinto and Schlumberger. What Would Buffett Buy? List: 60 Stocks That Pass Buffett Screen
Best American Cities for Couples With rents in many cities skyrocketing, men and women marrying later and a divorce rate for first-time marriages that hovers at about 45%, it's no wonder more American couples are deciding to shack up. But where are the best places to live? Topping the list is Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, Denver and Austin. Best Cities For Couples - Forbes.com
Food Fight Which of these items has fewer calories and less fat? 3 McDonald's Big Mac sandwiches or 1 Uno deep-dish Shroom individual pizza? If you said 3 Big Mac's you are correct. 3 Big Macs have 1,620 calories and 87g of fat while 1 Uno's individual pizza has a whooping 2,070 calories and 159g of fat. This is just one of 10 comparisons. Food from Outback, Dunkin Donuts, Krispy Kreme, Ruby Tuesday, Red Lobster, Starbucks and more are put to the test. ConsumerReports.org - Calorie comparison
Best Fabric Softeners Conventional wisdom advises using fabric-softener sheets to lessen static cling, but Consumer Reports found that overall, liquids reduced the static charge in a load of synthetic clothing slightly better than sheets did. Ttests of 12 liquids, eight sheets, a dryer ball and a reusable dryer cloth revealed one excellent product, Ultra Gain Joyful Expressions liquid. ConsumerReports.org - Fabric softeners: Tests, recommendations Ratings: Best Softeners
Secrets of a Superfruit Last year saw the launch of more than 400 pomegranate products, from skin cream to gumdrops, and the number of Americans buying fresh pomegranates has quadrupled since 2002. Here is the real reason that pomegranate has become the "it" flavor of the fruit world. The Truth Behind the Pomegranate Craze | SmartMoney.com
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) shares are rising today after the company reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $252.3 million, or 69 cents per share, above analysts' estimates of 68 cents per share. The company said earnings were helped by an 18% rise in direct-to-consumer sales, as well as a 17.7% rise in factory same-store sales. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on COH.
After hitting a one-year high of $54.00 in April, the stock hit a one-year low of $24.09 earlier this month. COH opened this morning at $27.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.76 and a high of $30.00. As of 10:35, COH is trading at $29.36, up $1.87 (6.8%). The chart for COH looks bearish but improving, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
With luxury stocks off to a horrific start to the year -- Coach (NYSE: COH) and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF) already down in the neighborhood of 20% -- this might seem like a strange time for Prada, one of the world's top high-end fashion houses to take itself public.
But according to the Wall Street Journal, Prada's IPO is still scheduled [subscription required] for June. Miuccia Prada and her husband, Prada CEO Patrizio Bertelli, own 95% of the company, and had previously said that market conditions would be a factor in the timing of the IPO.
Assuming that Prada's IPO plans are indeed unfazed by the luxury market bloodshed, there are two possible scenarios:
Prada plans to go ahead with a June IPO because it believes the market will be kinder to luxury goods stocks by then, which would be bullish for the industry now.
Prada plans to do the IPO in June because raising money after that will only be more difficult.
Remember -- the insiders at Prada have a better read on this market than just about anyone, and the IPO schedule/details are an important barometer of the industry's health.
With economic worries sending luxury goods makers like Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) well off their highs, at least one super-investor who isn't afraid to go against the conventional wisdom is taking notice.
Nelson Peltz and his Trian funds have upped their stake in Tiffany from 5.6% to 7.9% amid continued weakness in the company's share price -- the stock is already down 20% year to date.
According to the Wall Street Journal [subscription], Peltz has previously said he isn't seeking a seat on the company's board, but wouldn't rule out the possibility of taking an activist stance somewhere down the road. Another big drop could prod him to step in and try to make something happen.
Tiffany recently reported a weak holiday sales period, a strong indication that the economic malaise that started in subprime may be carrying over to more upscale consumers. In recent years, Tiffany's and other luxury goods makers have seen their markets expand to include more luxury aspirational customers. Dependence on less wealthy consumers for sales growth may be making the luxury goods sector less immune to economic woes than it has been historically.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that next to the consumer, this is the biggest problem facing the otherwise strong companies in this sector.
Doesn't it seem like another day where it is impossible to make money? We have earnings season without any sense that anybody's numbers can be raised. We have an ennui that comes from months of pounding and indecision, and we have stocks that can't seem to go up to save their lives.
You know the fashion industry is in trouble when one of the hottest-selling trends is a rubberized sandal-shoe named after a reptile.
According to the New York Times, sales of women's apparel were down 6% for the first half of the Christmas season. However sales of men's clothing were up 4.5%.
Experts have been quick to blame the usual suspects for the women's clothing weakness: economic woes, housing troubles, rising gas prices -- but that doesn't fully explain it. Electronic sales are up 5.8% and sales of luxury goods have soared 10.8% -- the struggles of Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) notwithstanding.
While holiday sales have been lukewarm, the expected growth of 4%, the lowest rate in 5 years, indicates that there is some other factor driving the slowdown in women's clothing.
According to Fortune, the problem is that there are no must-have women's fashion products and trends to loosen nervous purse strings. Skinny jeans just aren't enough to drive nervous consumers into the stores.
This could actually be bullish for the industry: The fact that the major factor driving the slowdown appears to be within their control -- as opposed to broader macroeconomic factors -- means that they could bounce back stronger next year if they get some hotter threads in the pipeline.
Back in June, the Disciplined Investor was poking fun at the prodigious rate at which Crocs (NASADQ: CROX) insiders were dumping stock as the media hyped the company's prospects. In a satirical letter to the company's shareholders on behalf of the CEO, Andrew Horowitz wrote: As for me, I still support the stock. I see no reason why it cannot double from here. I am feeling generous and want to give back to those who have helped me....With all of the supporters and bulls looking for shares to go to $150, I want to make sure there are plenty of shares available for those who have not yet been able to capitalize. So selling a large portion of my shares is merely an altruistic move to allow these that do not have shares the ability to now have access at these inflated prices. Why should I be so greedy? Since I have sold about 600,000 shares and now have a smaller position (234,243 shares held directly) I fell much better that I have allowed others to enter the "Crox Club". Now there are 600,000 more shares available for others to buy. I really feel good about this.
Now we're in November. Shares of Crocs have taken a hit, losing nearly half their value since the beginning of the month. And predatory securities lawyers have rushed to the scene, filing class-action lawsuits against the company, filled with vague allegations of securities fraud. Given that nearly every company that has the nerve to report a bad quarter gets sued these days, I'm not inclined to read much into the lawsuits.
Some people waiting for their economic stimulus checks may be in for a shock. 
Shares of companies like 
Here are some highlights from this past week's .gif){kind=logo}
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With luxury stocks off to a horrific start to the year -- 
With economic worries sending luxury goods makers like 
Apple shares rise on report Steve Jobs is free of cancer
Toyota whups GM in the first half of 2008
Bush: Wall Street got drunk!
