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NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: The worst is still ahead of us

Those investors, including market absolutists, who interpret the current economic state-of-things as just a typical downturn that a few tax cuts and some good, old-fashioned, free market-based supply side economics can solve, may want to stop reading the economic data points in the months ahead. At least, that's the view of one economist.

Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor, who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said the worst is still ahead for the U.S. economy and for economies around the world.

"In the next few months, the macroeconomic news and earnings reports from around the world will be much worse than expected," Roubini wrote in a column for Bloomberg News, adding that the aforementioned will put downward pressure on prices of risky assets.

Further, Roubini said the U.S. economy will remain in recession through at least the end of 2009, with only a mild recovery starting in 2010 -- with GDP growth in the initial recovery year of 1%. For 2009, Roubini also forecasts continued recessions for the United Kingdom, euro zone, Japan and Canada. Russia will also fall into recession, as will Brazil, and China will experience a hard landing, with growth slowing to 5%, he said. India's economy also will slow substantially.

Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: The worst is still ahead of us

Top Stock Picks '09: AeroVironment (AVAV)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

Gregg Early focuses on finding long-term growth opportunities among companies that specialize in niche, advanced technologies.

In his The New Tech Investor, he looks to AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) -- which is involved in innovative ventures in both wind power and unmanned vehicles -- as his favorite investment idea for the coming year.

"Two things make AeroVironment a unique company: its story and its stock price during the past year.

"The company has four divisions that by themselves seem very incongruous for moving the whole forward. It has a division that makes some of the most highly lauded and in-demand micro-unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in service today.

"It also has a clean energy systems division that's best known for its 'architectural wind' turbines for urban settings, that are installed on manufacturing plants as well as office and apartment buildings.

"Its latter two division are the congruent in direction: one builds electric vehicle (EV) supply systems and the other supplies EV test systems.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: AeroVironment (AVAV)

Credit cards: Another catch 22

The Obama administration wants to pass a stimulus package of about $700 billion dollars. But back at the ATM customers are finding their credit limits slashed and their access to credit being shot down. About 20% of banks are reducing credit limits for prime borrowers and 60% of banks lowered limits for nonprime borrowers.

Some banks, like Bank of America are closing accounts with zero balances. J P Morgan is lowering credit lines on accounts that show increased risk or are inactive. American Express, US Bancorp, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo said they would reduce credit lines if they think the customer is a high risk.

Another added problem is that your credit score is based in part on how much you borrow relative to your credit limit. Let's take an example and assume that you have a $5000.00 limit and have purchases in the amount of $1000.00. You have excess credit of $4000.00 and your credit score is based on how much unused credit you have left. Now, if your credit line is reduced to $2500.00, you have only $1500.00 of unused credit. So now you are close to being maxed out and your credit score could be lowered.

Customers can complain to their banks and try to get their credit lines increased or simply close the account.

So, it doesn't really matter how much money the Obama stimulus is, you'll have to pay cash because your credit line has been shredded.

Did you check your credit lines today?

Family Dollar comes out on top

It comes as no surprise that the top performer among the stocks comprising the S&P 500 Index is a retailer focused on delivering quality products and services at a discount price.

Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) increased nearly 30% in 2008, compared with a decrease of 40% in the S&P 500.

Defying the expectations of gloomy analysts who are paralyzed by their inability to value companies during the last 12 months, and by short sellers who perceived a price drop following the high level performance in 2008, the stock is continuing its climb as we enter the 2009 trading year.

Family Dollar reported first quarter earnings Wednesday, which exceeded analysts' expectations and company projections.

Earnings for the period were up by 14%, with revenue increasing by 4.2% and same-store sales up a healthy 2.1%. Market reaction to the report is stunning, with FDO up more than 14% at the close.

Family Dollar CEO Howard Levine, son of founder and Chairman Emeritus Leon Levine, issued a forecast of continued growth for the next quarter and for all of 2009.

The company is now projecting earnings of $1.63 to $1.81 per share for fiscal year 2009. Earlier forecasts were in the range of $1.58 to $1.78. Projections of same-store sales growth for the year were also increased from a range of 1%-3% to 2%-4%.

FDO combines conservative leadership with a consumer-friendly neighborhood store environment, and a product mix appealing to cost-conscious consumers to deliver value and a positive shopping experience. With minimal exposure to price-volatile electronic and apparel inventory, company performance is not likely to be adversely affected by a prolonged economic downturn.

FDO has more than 6,000 locations in 44 contiguous states. The company has effectively managed its rapid growth during the last five years, having opened more than half of its stores during this period.

Continue reading Family Dollar comes out on top

Facebook on fire -- hits 150 million users

When it comes to social networks, I rarely hear about MySpace. Although, recently my mom mentioned it (which is usually a sign that a website has reached its peak).

Of course, the go-to place is now Facebook. And, based on the founder's blog post – Mark Zuckerberg – the growth rate is torrid.

Just four months ago, Facebook had 100 million users; now, there are more than 150 million users.

OK, "users" can be an amorphous thing. But, even if 10% are really inactive, the growth rate is nonetheless stunning (keep in mind that about 75 million users are on Facebook on a daily basis).

Basically, Facebook is benefiting from the power of the network effect. This means that – as more users join the network – the more value that accrues. Hey, why join a social network with few potential friends?

So not only is Facebook putting the pressure on MySpace, but also the thousands of other social networks (I suspect we'll see a brutal shakeout in 2009).

Continue reading Facebook on fire -- hits 150 million users

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AKS, LEN, MAR, DE, KLAC, VIVEF ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • KeyBanc upgraded Epicor (NASDAQ: EPIC) to Buy from Hold based on several near-term catalysts that include possible convertible debt repurchases, reasonable Q4 results, a proxy fight, and a boost from the Epicor 9 product cycle in 2H09.
  • KeyBanc also upgraded AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) to Buy from Hold based on relative valuation and said the company could benefit from lower iron ore, scrap natural gas, and labor inputs.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN) to Overweight from Neutral based on relative valuation.
  • Marriott (NYSE: MAR) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Raymond James (NYSE: RJF) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  • Deere (NYSE: DE) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.
Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AKS, LEN, MAR, DE, KLAC, VIVEF ...

EMC slashes jobs -- good time to restructure

In the current environment, it's pretty tough selling multimillion-dollar software systems. So, this week EMC (NYSE: EMC), a global software company, announced it is paring back its operations by laying off 2,400 employees (the current workforce stands at 33,000).

However, EMC had some good news. Quarterly revenues are expected to come in at $4 billion, up 4% over the past year. Earnings are projected at $0.13 to $0.14 per share.

If anything, the recession is giving EMC an excuse to restructure itself. Over the past few years, the company has bulked up with major acquisitions and now has an extensive portfolio of software solutions.

So, by reducing operating costs, profits are likely to be robust. After all, EMC provides software that is critical for many organizations and is difficult to unwind.

All in all, Wall Street likes the news. In today's trading, EMC's shares are up 3.5% to $11.57.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.

WD-40 beats in Q1, but the guidance ruins the story

WD-40 (NASDAQ: WDFC) reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday after the bell, and even though the consumer-products company went beyond what Wall Street was expecting of it, the stock was traded down nonetheless. Of course, it was a pretty bad day on Wednesday for the markets anyway, so some of it was due to that, I suppose. But the major element bringing WD-40 down was its oily outlook.

WD-40 beat the analysts by five cents with a bottom line equal to $0.46 per share. That's a great performance, but management reduced its guidance for the fiscal year. Previously, WD-40 thought it would do somewhere between $1.65 and $1.85 per share for 2009. Now, the range is between $1.60 and $1.75 per share. The market wasn't heartened by that news. Shares of WD-40 declined by over 2% this morning. And that was on top of a 4% decline Wendesday (again, though, it was a down day on Wall Street overall).

Continue reading WD-40 beats in Q1, but the guidance ruins the story

The business press: The horror of writing your own obit

Forbes laid off almost 20 people to save money. It is putting its online newsroom and print writers together. Yesterday, McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MGP), the publisher of BusinessWeek, cut several hundred people. US News, which used to have a strong business and personal finance section, is going from weekly to monthly to save money. There are rumors in the market that SmartMoney, a joint venture between Dow Jones and Hearst, is losing money.

The horrible thing about all of this and the layoffs at business sections of newspapers, is that the reporters who work the business and financial beats are writing their own obituaries. As they chronicle the demise of print media, the slowing of Internet advertising, and deepening recession, they have to go to work every day hoping that they will not find a pink slips on their desks.

What happens to these people?. They will not find jobs in the traditional media, but there is a model in the newspaper industry that may given them some hope. In many cities where dailies are struggling to survive and layoffs are plentiful, out-of-work writers are banding together to start websites to compete with the local press. Setting up these websites is cheap. The reporters already know their subjects as well as anyone else. They only need very modest ad revenue to do relatively well.

Business reporters may go the same route. Look for a lot of new, smaller financial websites to open staffed by laid off writers and watch them give the traditional press a run for its money

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7wallst.com.

Dell to close Ireland facility, hand out 1,900 pink slips

While Lenovo is facing cutbacks and sluggish sales, the company right ahead of it in global PC sales -- Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) -- is going through some of the same motions. Not only has CEO Michael Dell changed the top management last week, it will continue shedding jobs. As of this morning, the PC maker announced that it would lay off 1,900 workers in Ireland at its main plant there and shift production to Poland instead.

So, U.S. workers are not the only ones feeling the unemployment pinch. In addition to moving all production work to Poland for the EMEA region, Dell will also move parts of the previous Irish production to third-party manufacturers -- something that outgoing operations chief Mike Cannon was an expert at.

Dell's about-to-be former Limerick, Ireland facility was opened in 1990 and employed 4,500 people at its peak. With swings in the global economy and the PC market, though, it's now going away. Dell's status as Ireland's largest single exporter may be at stake after the Limerick facility is closed, but that's not entirely clear yet. The PC maker will continue to operate its sales and marketing division in Dublin as well as keeping open its Global Innovation Solutions Center in Limerick.

Top Stock Picks '09: World Fuel Services (INT)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Technically speaking, World Fuel Services (NYSE: INT) is a stock that has shown incredible strength by outperforming the broad market," says Bernie Schaeffer, who chooses the issue as his top pick for 2009.

In his top-notch trading and investing service, Schaeffer's Investment Research, he looks at the company, which provides fueling services to marine vessels in some 1,000 seaports.

"The company estimates it holds more than 10% of the global marine fuels market. It also provides 24-hour fueling service to aircraft at 1,500 airports in more than 160 countries.

"Its aviation fueling business focuses on serving small to medium-sized air carriers, cargo and charter carriers, and private aircraft. World Fuel Services also markets fuel and related services to petroleum distributors operating in the land transportation market.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: World Fuel Services (INT)

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part IV

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer looks at the next six components of the Dow, including a lousy drug company and a winning financial.

This is the fourth part of Jim Cramer's series of predictions for the Dow components in 2009. Be sure to read the first, second and third parts.

JPMorgan Chase
(NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take): Jamie Dimon is revered, but we are in a tough market for the consumer in 2009, which truly worries me. That said, the stock has been killed by Dimon's own pessimistic projections, and I don't believe they will pan out as badly as he does.

The dividend appears safe, and I believe that the second half of the year will see some lending improvement and merger activity. I see it going back to where it did a huge equity offering at $39 a share, a nice appreciation from this beaten-down level. It's good, but I believe that Wells Fargo's (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take) performance will give it a run for the money.

My one worry here is the purchase of Washington Mutual. This was another deal that looked great when the Resolution Mortgage Trust part of TARP was still alive -- I don't believe that it would have been worth buying Washington Mutual without it. But that's all too late, and now JPMorgan has to rationalize the two entities and cut costs as aggressively as possible, something Jamie Dimon knows to do better than anyone in the banking world ... with the exception of Wells Fargo.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Cramer bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part IV

As Lenovo sales fall apart, huge risks for Dell

Lenovo is, by most measures, the third largest PC company in the world. Several years ago, it took over IBM's(NYSE: IBM) personal computer business, giving it a foothold in the U.S.

Last night, Lenovo said its business is falling to pieces. Coming a day after a warning from Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), a grim picture of the industry is beginning to emerge. The most likely company to bear a heavy burden is Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), which is already facing challenges to its sales and global market share.

According to the FT, "Along with other computer makers, Lenovo is suffering from a plunge in demand for PCs. Lenovo, however, is particularly hard hit because of its reliance on the corporate segment, where companies are cutting IT spending aggressively." Dell also relies on the corporate market for a large piece of its sales.

Lenovo also said it would cut 11% of its staff.

Dell's shares are already down to $11 from a 52-week high of $26. If it reports awful earnings and guides down for 2009, that share price would easily drop below its 52-week floor of $8.72. By the way, if Dell had to cut 10% of its workers, over 8,000 people would be out of jobs.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

New accounting rules could curb investment banking fees

Bad news for money-hungry college grads looking to cash in as investment bankers: New disclosure rules could change the way you're paid.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "New accounting rules are taking hold for mergers and acquisitions that will shine a perhaps scary light on just how much corporations pay the investment banks and bankers that advise them on deals."

Here's how it currently works: Companies that make acquisitions are now able to lump the "advisory fees" in with the price of the target company as part of the "goodwill" that is mainly used to cover the cost paid for the company above and beyond its book value. But new rules would require companies to disclose investment banking fees as a separate expense.

According to Dealogic, investment banking revenue fell 35% in 2008. New rules that require companies to show how much they're paying for advice on deals that generally end up destroying value could set the industry up for further declines.

If this keeps up, top business school graduates might have no choice but to take jobs that actually create something.

'Horrible' jobless claims level remains at 26-year high

There's an upside / downside to this week's jobless claims data.

While U.S. weekly jobless claims actually fell 24,000 to 467,000, the total still is more than 40% higher than a year ago.

Meanwhile, continuing claims rose another 101,000 to 4.61 million -- the highest continuing claims total since December 1982. Economists note that the high continuing claims level reflects labor market stress, and the long time it takes for those downsized to find comparable employment. Few companies are filling vacancies, and even alternate and temporary work assignments are declining -- another negative sign for the labor market.

Economist Peter Dawson called the continuing claims level "horrible, indicative of extremely weak job creation conditions. The continuing claims level is approaching Reagan era recession totals, which was a bad recession."

Continue reading 'Horrible' jobless claims level remains at 26-year high

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Last updated: January 08, 2009: 01:01 PM

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