Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) announced disappointing earnings. But the stock went up. Is that a signal investors think the worst is over, that the future looks brighter for financial stocks? Maybe.
While Fannie Mae is only one company, it's the biggest in the mortgage business. That means everyone is watching what it's doing and how it's faring. As Fannie Mae goes, so goes the mortgage market. As of the latest earnings release, things aren't going too well. Earnings per share showed a loss of $2.57, much worse than the 81 cents analysts predicted. Management cut the quarterly dividend to 25 cents a share starting in the third quarter to save money. To bolster its capital, Fannie will raise $6 billion, most likely in preferred stock since there's a strong market for income shares.
In this month' Money Magazine story, Calming words for troubled times the final words were by Deena Katz, Chairman, Evensky & Katz Wealth Management, who shared this "My mom always said, if you're going to do it, don't worry; if you're going to worry, don't do it."
Are you a worrier? Do you fret over everything? Can you undo those things you have already done that you are worried about? Sometimes it's tough. But maybe you should consider it. How does that apply to the stock market or investing in general. From that perspective it is very simple. Do not invest in anything that will keep you up at night.
While this may be good advice for most aspects of investing there is one time that it might cost you. When stocks are rising few people are worried. When stocks are falling everyone's worry factor rises. As their worry factor rises they tend to become sellers. This may relieve one of their worries but it also may relieve them of their money because it contradicts two other old bits of wisdom.
"Buy low and sell high" is a common refrain said tongue in cheek because a bell does not ring announcing the highs and lows. However, even 'my pal Warren' would advise that "investors should buy on fear and sell on greed". So then the modified version of mom's advice melding it with market realities is that you should be worried when others are not and remain calm when everyone else is panicking.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
I read an article that was explaining some of the credit problems financial institutions have. It went into the mortgage mess, the concerns for coming credit card collections and home equity loans. It was good and helpful to anyone interested in knowing more about potential problems for banks and thrifts. Then I read one of the reader's replies: More big picture stuff, just tell me what to buy tomorrow morning.
This one reader speaks for many others. Every investor would love to know what to buy now. They just want the name of a stock that will go up. And they don' want to have to research it or know anything else about it. Just a name. Give me a name. Ah, if it were that easy.
Some of the smartest investors, or at least ones who made a lot of money in the past, are buying financial stocks. Big time. They're the ones who bought a large chunk of Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) and Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB). Some $7 billion worth in WaMu, $8 billion in Wachovia coming soon. (Wachovia raised $3.5 billion through preferred stock only two months prior.) But these sharp investors didn't buy stock on the open market. They got theirs in negotiated deals with each bank. And they're not done buying.
Banks are teetering on the edge of a precipice. Without new capital their losses threaten to wipe out the capital base required to stay open. That forces many of them to consider selling to another, stronger bank or raise more capital to replace the losses. While not strictly a bank, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), an investment bank, was leaning heavily over the edge when JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) threw it a rope and reeled it in. Originally at $2 a share, now at $10. The building that Bear owns is said to be worth at least $2 a share, so JP Morgan's life line came at a very high cost.
Mutual funds are great ways to invest. They offer professional management and risk diversification, especially if it's a general fund such as large cap growth and income. The diversification is less if it's specialized such as healthcare, but there is still lower risk because the fund buys many different stocks in a sector. Many investors believe they're at a higher level than fund investing, one where they pick individual stocks and make better returns than mutual funds. That may be true, but most likely not for every investment.
By that I mean there is no way you can invest in China with a diverse group of stocks and know much about each company. And even if you can get information on a company, it's usually at least six months old. Imagine how much changes anywhere in six months, much less in a volatile economy like China. The initial reaction might be that things are even better now. But not necessarily for your company. Or when things do change, as every economic cycle does, you may be the last to know that the bubble burst six months ago for the sector in which your company operates.
The banking industry is in difficult times. After years of poor lending practices for mortgages by many banks and savings and loans, they're reaping the rewards for stupidity and greed. Those mortgages are being abandoned by borrowers because they can't make the monthly payments. The houses behind the mortgages are empty, reverting back to the lenders. As more and more houses are put up for sale, prices go lower and lower. The banks lose money on the loans as they sell homes to recover as much as possible. Many sales don't pay off all of the loans. The difference will be a loss for the lender.
That's what's happening all over the country. It's a mess, an expensive mess, created by the lenders by and on themselves. But keep this in mind: the banking industry is fundamental to the economy. Loans are what make new companies go, allow qualified buyers to purchase new and used homes, move cars off lots, etc. Lending money is fundamental to the U.S. economy. Without loans, growth would slow, inventories would rise, jobs would be lost. The banking industry has to function well for the U.S. in general to do well.
Any investor looking to the Fed to bail out current credit problems is looking at part of the answer. The Fed can only do so much. It can lower interest rates. It can add money to the economy. But that isn't going to be enough to cure all the bad mortgages or delinquent credit card payments. And if the Fed adds too much money to the economy, it feeds inflation. The Fed needs help from Congress and the President and mostly business, particularly the banks and thrifts that made the loans.
Here's the essence of the problem: even if rates go much lower, if people don't have jobs, they won't borrow money because they don't have the means to pay it back. Furthermore, banks won't lend money to the unemployed or underemployed. They've already done that. That's why we're in this mess. And they should be the ones to pay for it, not taxpayers. The lenders need to face these problems squarely and take the necessary measures to work them out.
Of course they can. But they can also get much better. While the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has rallied from its lows, can it sustain the gain or will investors take this opportunity to reap smaller losses (who has profits these days?) or step up and buy? Here's what will influence them.
It seems all economic news is bad. "Credit crunch" is more common than Captain Crunch around the breakfast table. Banks are hemorraging from bad loans. They're reluctant to make new ones unless the credit is so good and the loan so small that it would be impossible to lose money on it. Most likely the best terms are for those borrowers who deposit all the money they need in the bank first, then borrow it back, but not all of it. The banks want that extra cushion of safety these days. Don't look for the banks to change lending habits soon. More losses are coming. Until they stop, banks will keep credit tight.
By definition, no. Stocks carry risk. If you don't want risk, put your money in treasury bills or under the mattress. But don't expect much of a return, if any. Having said that, certain stocks do have attributes that make them relatively, and I emphasize this word, relatively, safer investments than others.
First and foremost, they have solid earnings. The best ones increase earnings every year for several years, no matter what the economy does. Examples: Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO), Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL). If you've watched these stocks during the last 6 months, they've gone down but nowhere near the depths of most others. They have solid earnings investors can count on. Investors pay for that.
With a seemingly bottomless stock market that has a day or two of great rallies, it's a good time to review what investing is and what it isn't, how to start and stay with an investment, and other essentials that help investors weather this storm.
First, investing is not done with any money that you need within a known time period. If you even think you will need a certain amount of money anytime within three years (I prefer to think of five years because of the market's tendency to overdo everything, bad as well as good), then you don't want that particular money in the market. Most often, just when you need it, the value of your investment will be down, and you'll have to take a loss.
With a major market meltdown going on, it's only natural that investors look for some shelter from the storm. No one can guess how bad mortgage problems are, how much they'll cost. And credit card concerns are just starting. Some intuitive responses would be to get out of your weakest stocks and buy into very high paying dividend issues. Or to take all of your money out and put it into a CD.
Those moves would be wrong. Here's the best way to approach this awful market.
It's not all bad out there. Some stocks are doing much better with individual results carrying them higher. Others are being carried by a sea change in the industry. Here are the news and stocks that provide some of the light in the current darkness.
(please note, this column was written Wednesday, Feb. 27).
On Monday, the rumor that started the rally on Friday continued. Several banks were going to form a consortium to save the insurance company AMBAC. On top of that there was a renewed bid for Take Two by Electronics Arts, this time with a higher price tag. Take Two rejected the new offer, but it sparked a rally. The market went up over 100 points. That was on top of the almost 100 point rally from last session, one that saw a 200 point turnaround in an hour.
Bellwether stocks are industry leaders, the biggest and usually, but not always, the best. Investors watch them to get a sense of where that particular industry, or in some cases, the economy is going. Some bellwethers are portfolio anchors while others are good indicators but not necessarily the best stocks to own. Here are some to know.
For a broad economic indicator, watch General Electric Company (NYSE: GE). This company is so large and involved in almost every aspect of the economy that it gives a good reading on how the economy is doing. It finances houses, builds jet engines, sells light bulbs, owns NBC Universal, manufactures major household appliances and consumer electronics, has electrical distribution, generates energy from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, water and wind technologies, supplies railroad locomotives and management technologies, offers security systems, has water treatment and wastewater treatment, provides healthcare with medical technologies and services such as medical imaging. There isn't much GE doesn't touch in our daily lives. While GE's stock has been in a rather tight trading range (it did break up to $42 a share late last year, but then retreated), it's worth watching as an indicator for the pulse of the U.S. economy. The stock's price has been decidedly down for the last six months.
With certain sectors of the market collapsed, many smart investors are starting to do more than homework. They're buying stocks in small amounts, building positions for a time when the economy is once again in a growth mode. Make no mistake: the economy will recover. It has ever since 1776. What is unknown is when. If you want to see what some of the "smart" money is buying, check out these stocks.
The one common element they all share: compelling valuations, either in an absolute sense, meaning their prices are the lowest in years or a relative one, meaning they're selling for valuations that are the cheapest they've been in some time. Some have P/E ratios not seen in a decade. Others are selling well below book value.
In one of my recent posts on stock pricing, I received a comment from one of our more acerbic readers, who asks some good questions once he simmers down. He wonders why investors have not bid up the share price of Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA):
"How come nobody has the hots for ALCOA? It is very cheap. . . There is mining stock merger-mania yet nobody is buying ALCOA in anticipation of it occurring to ALCOA as well. Are we gonna wait until it is too late?"
First of all, I should remind everyone that the price of a stock on any given day is a myth. It is worse than a myth, it is just a fleeting moment in time. I would call it semi-arbitrary most of the time.
Alcoa closed yesterday at $34.06, having a trailing P/E ratio of 11.5. That falls between its 52 week low of $26.69 and its high of $48.77. Also worthy of note, Alcoa has a yield of 2% which is about 10% higher than your average S&P stock. This seems positive.
Perhaps my friend is on to something. Alcoa is off its high considerably and has a lower P/E and higher yield then any of the indices. But its ROE of 15 and ROIC of 11 are all too average, not exceptional -- and these are important considerations. The P/B of 1.89 also seems average but the P/S of 1.03 looks very appealing.
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
