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Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

Oil gets hammered: Crude drops to $67.00 per barrel

The unemployment numbers just came out and showed that the U.S. economy lost 467,000 jobs last month. That was the trigger for the oil traders. Within a few minutes oil dropped $2.02 per barrel to $67.19 at 9:07 EDT.

Adding fuel to the decline was the report that gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.9 million barrels, but crude dropped 3.7 million barrels.

Continue reading Oil gets hammered: Crude drops to $67.00 per barrel

Feathers are flying. What is causing the US/China chicken wars?

Why is chicken causing a furor between the US and China? It seems that there is a long standing feud over chicken imports to the US. According to Etter and Power, in 2006 the USDA issued a rule that permitted China to export cooked poultry products to the US as long as the raw poultry meat originated in the US. A bruhaha erupted, and lawmakers inserted a provision in the fiscal 2008 spending bill that prohibited processed chicken from being imported into the US.

Now, in retaliation, China is expected to ban imports of US chicken, a move that would cost US chicken exporters $370 million dollars over the next six months.

Continue reading Feathers are flying. What is causing the US/China chicken wars?

Why are corn traders screaming "get me out or this market"?

Suddenly, like lightening, the corn market drops to limit down. "Limit down" is the maximum the corn market can drop in one day. For corn it is 30 cents or ($1500.00 (each penny equals $50.00.) December corn traded at $3.6725 per bushel down the limit.

Why did this happen? Berry and Rees reported that today the Agriculture Department released its report on corn plantings which forecast 87.035 million acres up from 85.982 million acres planted in 2008. More acres mean more corn and more corn means lower prices.

Continue reading Why are corn traders screaming "get me out or this market"?

NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

"In the 2000s, as we've alternated between deflationary and inflationary worries, gold has been the only major investment to rise every year," says Stephen Leeb.

In his The Complete Investor, he explains, "We think that many miners are exceptional bets today. And among our favorite gold investments is one that we hold in our small cap value model portfolio: NovaGold Resources (AMEX: NG)."

"The case for mining stocks is that the price of gold rises faster than miners' costs, allowing margins to increase.

Continue reading NovaGold (NG): 'Exceptional bet' in mining

Why did China raise fuel prices to record levels?

Why did China raise its gasoline and diesel prices? Beijing has a pricing policy that uses a 22-day moving average of crude oil. With the price of crude oil trading at around $71 per barrel, China felt it necessary to raise the price of gasoline and diesel fuel 9% and 10%, respectively. This will raise the price of a gallon of gasoline to $3.00 per gallon, compared with the U.S. price of $2.66 a week ago, according to Reuters news service.

With economies around the world gaining ground this quarter, it follows that demand for crude oil is also increasing. So far we've seen a doubling of oil prices since last February. The main concern is, given the pace of recovery, is there a point where demand for crude oil and gasoline will taper off. If so, we may be looking at an intermediate top in oil prices. However, if world economies continue to improve, crude oil could move to $75 to $80 per barrel.

Continue reading Why did China raise fuel prices to record levels?

Utility expert taps into water stocks

"Investors have given up on the water industry -- the sector has fallen 60% -- but the best firms have hardly missed a beat," says utility sector specialist Roger Conrad.

In Personal Finance, the advisor reviews the outlook for the sector and two of his favorite stocks -- American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) and Aqua America (NYSE: WTR).

"The EPA stimates the US will have to spend $335 billion over the next decade to keep the taps turned on, given aging infrastructure and supply degradation.

Continue reading Utility expert taps into water stocks

Baltic Dry plunges: Captain, she's going down!

On June 23, the CEO of the world's largest dry bulk cargo shipping company warned that he actually sees a decline in shipping volumes. That's very bad news for the bullish global trade argument and a smack to the head of the Green Shoots Brigade. Dry bulk cargo is how the world ships coal, steel, and other raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index -- the daily average of prices paid to ship these materials -- has long been a key leading indicator of industrial production. And after a spectacular triple digit run, the Baltic Dry Index rolled over this week and headed steeply downwards.

Continue reading Baltic Dry plunges: Captain, she's going down!

Have wheat speculators gone wild?

Who is in charge of regulating the wheat futures market? That agency is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) which oversees trading in the futures markets. One area of regulation is the number of open contracts any one person can have at any given time. The limit is 6,500 contracts.

So then what caused the price of wheat to go wild last year? It seems that the CFTC was complicit in that they gave exemptions for traders to go beyond the 6,500 limit. One trader was allowed to hold 53,000 contracts. Then to make matters worse, six traders ganged up and held 130,000 contracts. According to Bill Tomson, the value of these investments jumped "from an estimated $15 billion dollars in 2003 to around $200 billion by mid 2008.

Continue reading Have wheat speculators gone wild?

Did commodity prices get ahead of fundamentals?

Did commodities get ahead of themselves? And specifically, did one commodity -- the world's most important commodity -- get ahead of itself?

In macroeconomic terms, oil raced ahead about 100% in less than five months -- an eye-blink in macroeconomic terms -- to $72, all on the belief that the U.S. and global recessions were bottoming. Other pivotal commodities, such as copper, followed suit.

Continue reading Did commodity prices get ahead of fundamentals?

Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?

It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.

Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.

Continue reading Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?

Six reasons why natural gas is better investment than oil

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Vitaliy Katsenelson,

1. Reserves deplete faster than oil (in general).

2. Oil/natural gas ratio: the price of oil divided by the price of natural gas is at an all-time high (or close). This ratio stands at 17 (historically it has been at about an 8 or so). Natural gas prices will go, oil will decline, or both.

3. At $4 a gallon, it is uneconomical to develop and look for new oil reserves.

4. No OPEC competition.

5. Politically more favorable than coal.

6. After emission caps are implemented natural gas will become a cheaper alternative than politically and environmentally unfriendly coal.

Institutional investor trade of the quarter: Buy oil, sell the dollar

What's the current, sexy trade by institutional investors? Buy oil, sell the dollar.

For market absolutists and conservative economists, this is an 'np' -- or nooo problem. Like oil? Knock yourself out, and buy away. Oil's sexiness, due to expected increases in oil demand as the U.S. and global economies recovery, is a major reason crude's price has increased about 100% in six months. Oil closed Wednesday up 56 cents to $71.01 per barrel.

Continue reading Institutional investor trade of the quarter: Buy oil, sell the dollar

Will the rise in food commodity prices continue?

Can you guess how many hungry people there are on this planet? Well, this year for the first time the number will be about 1 billion, roughly 1/6 of the world's population. Increasingly, this will put a strain on the food supply chain.

The years 1997-2007 saw a steady rise in agricultural commodity prices with a sharp spike last year. This trend is likely to continue over the next 10 years with prices rising 10-30%.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United nations is forecasting slightly lower prices this year due to the weakness in the general economy.

Continue reading Will the rise in food commodity prices continue?

Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower

Oil prices have dropped a bit this morning, challenging support at the $70 level, due mainly to what some call "mixed signals" about the U.S. economy. The black gold has backed off as data pointed to the fact that the U.S. economy is still weak, even if it is emerging from the recession.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced that industrial production dropped more than expected during May, which has triggered the new weakness in the oil patch. Crude prices have also felt the sting of the market's early week weakness as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has backed off from its recent rally. In addition, the dollar has played an important part in crude prices. A weak dollar leads to higher oil prices as commodities are considered a safe-haven investment against a weak dollar.

Continue reading Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower

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Last updated: July 03, 2009: 06:32 PM

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