Posted Jul 2nd 2009 6:00PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, General Electric (GE), Diageo plc (DEO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Chasing Value, Commodities, Anglo Amer ADR (AAUK), S and P 500, DJIA, Stocks to Buy, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), NASDAQ, Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Best Stocks for 2009, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), EZCORP (EZPW)
The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.
The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.
Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review
Posted Jul 1st 2009 9:00AM by Connie Madon
Filed under: International markets, China, Commodities, Oil
Why did China raise its gasoline and diesel prices? Beijing has a pricing policy that uses a 22-day moving average of crude oil. With the price of crude oil trading at around $71 per barrel, China felt it necessary to raise the price of gasoline and diesel fuel 9% and 10%, respectively. This will raise the price of a gallon of gasoline to $3.00 per gallon, compared with the U.S. price of $2.66 a week ago, according to Reuters news service.
With economies around the world gaining ground this quarter, it follows that demand for crude oil is also increasing. So far we've seen a doubling of oil prices since last February. The main concern is, given the pace of recovery, is there a point where demand for crude oil and gasoline will taper off. If so, we may be looking at an intermediate top in oil prices. However, if world economies continue to improve, crude oil could move to $75 to $80 per barrel.
Continue reading Why did China raise fuel prices to record levels?
Posted Jun 23rd 2009 8:00AM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Commodities, Oil

Did commodities get ahead of themselves? And specifically, did one commodity -- the world's most important commodity -- get ahead of itself?
In macroeconomic terms, oil raced ahead
about 100% in less than five months -- an eye-blink in macroeconomic terms -- to $72, all on the belief that the U.S. and global recessions were bottoming. Other pivotal commodities, such as copper, followed suit.
Continue reading Did commodity prices get ahead of fundamentals?
Posted Jun 22nd 2009 9:40AM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: International markets, Competitive strategy, Market matters, BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Rio Tinto plc ADS (RTP), Bargain stocks, Serious Money, Commodities, Anglo Amer ADR (AAUK), Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH), Stocks to Buy, Best Stocks for 2009

It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company
Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of
Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ:
AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.
Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than
Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE:
RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.
Continue reading Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?
Posted Jun 19th 2009 1:40PM by Todd Harrison
Filed under: Commodities, Oil
This post was written by Minyanville contributor Vitaliy Katsenelson,
1. Reserves deplete faster than oil (in general).
2. Oil/natural gas ratio: the price of oil divided by the price of natural gas is at an all-time high (or close). This ratio stands at 17 (historically it has been at about an 8 or so). Natural gas prices will go, oil will decline, or both.
3. At $4 a gallon, it is uneconomical to develop and look for new oil reserves.
4. No OPEC competition.
5. Politically more favorable than coal.
6. After emission caps are implemented natural gas will become a cheaper alternative than politically and environmentally unfriendly coal.
Posted Jun 17th 2009 5:50PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Commodities, Oil

What's the current, sexy trade by institutional investors? Buy oil, sell the dollar.
For market absolutists and conservative economists, this is an 'np' -- or
nooo problem. Like oil? Knock yourself out, and buy away. Oil's sexiness, due to expected increases in oil demand as the U.S. and global economies recovery, is a major reason crude's price has increased about 100% in six months.
Oil closed Wednesday up 56 cents to $71.01 per barrel.
Continue reading Institutional investor trade of the quarter: Buy oil, sell the dollar
Posted Jun 17th 2009 3:30PM by Connie Madon
Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Forecasts, Economic data, Commodities

Can you guess how many hungry people there are on this planet? Well, this year for the first time the number will be about 1 billion, roughly 1/6 of the world's population. Increasingly, this will put a strain on the food supply chain.
The years 1997-2007 saw a steady rise in agricultural commodity prices with a sharp spike last year. This trend is likely to continue over the next 10 years with prices rising 10-30%.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United nations is forecasting slightly lower prices this year due to the weakness in the general economy.
Continue reading Will the rise in food commodity prices continue?
Posted Jun 17th 2009 10:30AM by Mark Fightmaster
Filed under: Commodities, Oil, DJIA
Oil prices have dropped a bit this morning, challenging support at the $70 level, due mainly to what some call
"mixed signals" about the U.S. economy. The black gold has backed off as data pointed to the fact that the U.S. economy is still weak, even if it is emerging from the recession.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve announced that industrial production dropped more than expected during May, which has triggered the new weakness in the oil patch. Crude prices have also felt the sting of the market's early week weakness as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has backed off from its recent rally. In addition, the dollar has played an important part in crude prices. A weak dollar leads to higher oil prices as commodities are considered a safe-haven investment against a weak dollar.
Continue reading Mixed economic signs push oil prices lower
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