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Hugo Chavez wants those bad capitalists to bail him out of a jam

What goes around comes around... and Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan "socialist" president who keeps promoting perpetual referendums to stay in power, has turned his recent attention back to those capitalist dogs he despises so much to bail him out of a tight jam.

After nationalizing agriculture, mining, power and building materials companies over the past few years, which pushed capital flight, Venezuela was reliant on oil for about 93 percent of its export revenue in 2008, up from 69 percent in 1998 when Mr. Chávez was first elected, according to a story in the NY Times.

While the socialist (authoritarian) in him is unhappy as oil is now trading around $35 a barrel today, dealing a severe blow to his misguided notions of economics, the pragmatic side of the former military man is biting his tongue and reaching out to all the major international oil companies he chased off only a short while ago. He is asking them to return and invest to expand exploration, maintain and modernize current facilities and improve over all productivity.

The question is: On what basis would a foreign enterprise dedicate its financial and technical resources to an agreement with a partner that has already ignored previous agreements?

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and CEMEX S. A. B. (NYSE: CX) are currently in litigation with the Chavez government. The Chinese and their nationally integrated oil companies have not done well either and remain apprehensive.

How can any deal get done? If it was being done on a smaller scale, you might use third party escrow accounts and ask for money to be set aside in advance, but Venezuela is cash strapped and would find this difficult to do.

One metaphor begets another, so from "what goes around comes around" I end with: Mr. Chavez, we would be happy to come back, but first we will have to see "cash on the barrel-head!"

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I own shares of CX but not XOM .

Cemex (CMX): 'Solid' play on infrastructure

This post is part of a special report, A Dozen Ways to Play an Obama Building Boom.

"I think we have bottomed in some sectors, including commodities and materials," explains Glenn Rogers. In Internet Wealth Builder, he explains, "President-elect Obama has said he will pour hundreds of billions into projects.

"The Chinese and the Europeans have also committed to huge amounts to infrastructure spending." Here, he looks at one play on this trend -- Cemex (NYSE: CX).

"If you want to venture back into the stock market at this point and you're a long-term investor, my advice is to buy high-quality names with low P/E ratios, no debt coming due next year, and the sustainable ability to pay a dividend.

"Late last month, this Mexican cement giant traded as low as $4.01. Then President-elect Obama announced his plan to spend billions on infrastructure projects and guess what happened?

"The share price shot up on the expectation that infrastructure spending will translate into a growing demand for cement.

"Cemex shares traded as high as $11.35 before pulling back to close the week at $8.16. That's still more than double the November low but this is a stock that was trading at over $30 last June so it still looks like good value at this level.

Continue reading Cemex (CMX): 'Solid' play on infrastructure

Analyst calls: LM, FSLR, KEY, HIG, PPO, ASH, VRTX, MKL, CX ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent sell-off, as they find the risk/reward attractive at current levels. However, the firm lowered their target to $23 from $44.
  • Merriman raised First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Buy from Neutral after the company showed "industry leading growth" in Q3. The firm has a 12-month price target range of $185 to $195 per share.
  • Ladenburg upgraded KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) to Buy from Neutral.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Silicon Laboratories (NASDAQ: SLAB) to Buy from Hold on valuation and expects the company to post above average industry growth in 2009.
  • Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  • Associated Estates Realty (NYSE: AEC) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: LM, FSLR, KEY, HIG, PPO, ASH, VRTX, MKL, CX ...

Could Venezuela become Zimbabwe? Ask Cemex

In the margins of Barron's this week there was a smallish note about the government of Venezuela nationalizing Cemex's (NYSE: CX) operations in that country. For some reason the government of Hugo Chavez thinks that stealing all of the private companies in 'his' country will lead to greater prosperity for 'his' people.

While it is a long journey from Venezuela to Zimbabwe, with its exponential inflation rate and a near-total economic breakdown, every journey begins with a first step. Mr. Chavez will move much closer to this inevitable outcome if he continues on his chosen path.

Motley Fool has a good write-up on the subject in which they detail the sour relations between Chavez and foreign businesses. Chavez recently offered to re-open negotiations with Cemex, but since he has already decided to take the company, that offer is suspect -- you can't negotiate with a gun pointing at you. To date, Chavez has nationalized the telecommunications industry, electricity, and oil. How many steps down the road is that? Why would anyone want to invest in Venezuela?

Continue reading Could Venezuela become Zimbabwe? Ask Cemex

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 11:46 PM

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