Analyst Upgrades

• Disney (DIS) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Pike Electric (PIKE) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Kindred Healthcare (KND) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• UBS (UBS) to hold from sell at Canaccord.
• Avery Dennison (AVY) and Take-Two (TTWO) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Mercer (MERC) to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

If you want to talk pain, talk to investors who own D.R. Horton (DHI). They were feeling quite miserable today. With a little over an hour to go before the market closes up shop, shares of the homebuilder were off by 5.7% to $11.48 as the market digested the latest quarterly report. Strong volume backed the trade.

The 52-week low for the stock is $9.41 while the 52-week high is $15.44. The one-year chart can be interpreted in a couple different ways (such is the limitation of technical analysis). While the big plunge in the middle cannot be ignored, the sideways trading aspect could be indicative that the shares are trying to find a level of support.

When Russell Sage was asked how to to become wealthy, he replied: "Buy straw hats in the winter." Who was Russell Sage? A Congressman from New York who was also a Wall Street financier who died with $70 million ... in 1906. His (sage) advice still works today, especially for stocks.

If you can buy stocks when they're out of season, or more likely, out of favor, you've got a much better chance of making money than when everyone else is jumping on the band wagon. The key item to remember is this: there are four seasons in a year ... every year, and when you buy straw hats in the winter (on sale no doubt), you know summer will be coming and their price will go higher. There are no seasons in the stock market. A stock out of favor now could stay that way for a long, long, long time. Even go bankrupt. So don't believe that a "cheap" stock now will automatically become valuable later.

It looks like John Paulson wants to get ahead of the crowd. He and other large homebuilders are buying prime building lots in states like Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.

The big players like Lennar Corp (LEN), Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF), KB Home (KBH), DR Horton (DHI) and Toll Brothers (TOL) are all grabbing lots at bargain basement prices.

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) saw its earnings-per-share plunge from a profit of $3.90 in 2006 to a staggering loss of $8.34 last year. Fortunately, the worst is behind us. This year D.R. Horton will probably lose about $1 per share.

I don't like to see any loss, but this is a huge improvement. In fact, I think there's even a good chance D.R. Horton could start posting some earnings gains by next year.

D.R. Horton is also a buy.

Next: Home builder stock #3

The past few years haven't been what you might call a happy time for shares of home building stocks. Consider that the Homebuilders Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE: XHB) plunged from $40 per share in early 2007 to just $8 per share earlier this year.

Since March, however, things have improved. There are signs that the housing market is getting back on its feet -- or at least, declining less slowly. Existing home sales recently registered their biggest gain in more than a decade. Seasonally-adjusted single-family building permits are up 27% since bottoming in March, while single-family housing starts have increased five straight months and are up 36% since March.

Most investors got slammed last year, down 50% or more in their investments. Didn't matter if they owned stocks or real estate, they got hammered. Many have to start over. And if they're near retirement, it's scary. Years of patient investing wiped out, gains that were made over a long time disappeared frighteningly fast.

But now it's time to begin fresh, to rebuild. What's the safest way to regain some or all of the losses without suffering another wipeout?

Lennar (NYSE: LEN), whose colleagues include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported earnings for the second quarter on Thursday. Since it is a homebuilder, you can expect that it would be a tough one to look at in many respects. There was a revenue decline of over 20%. And there was no profit. Lennar said it lost 76 cents per diluted share.

According to Michael Fowlkes and his earnings preview, Lennar did not satisfy Wall Street's outlook. Analysts were expecting a loss somewhere closer to 63 cents per share. That didn't stop the stock from going up, though. Lennar closed higher yesterday by over 17%. Volume was likewise incredible. Apparently, the market was focusing on the revenue beat.

Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), a home builder whose related companies include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported Q2 results on Tuesday after the bell. The company reported a loss of $1.50 per share (the results included a gain related to debt extinguishment). That unfortunately did not meet analyst expectations according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings preview. Analysts were looking for a loss of $1.26 per share.

However, things do look better. Last year at this time, the loss recorded by Hovnanian was a whopping $5.29 per share. Revenues, however, plummeted to $398 million from over $770 million. Analysts were expecting only $348 million according to the preview.

Given last week's news that new home sales have plunged and that new home prices continue to fall, what is Wall Street expecting from homebuilders Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) when they report quarterly results this week?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Dallas-based Centex will report that it narrowed its net loss in its fiscal third quarter to $3.27 per share. In the same period of last year, the loss was $7.94 per share. Revenue in the third quarter is expected to total $895.3 million, down 53.0% from last year. For the full year, the loss is expected to reach $7.36 per share on revenue of $4.0 billion, which compares to a $21.69 per share loss on $8.3 billion in sales in 2008. Centex has posted bigger-than-expected losses in the past five quarters. So the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CTX, though the long-range EPS growth forecast is 9.0%. The share price has fallen 20.0% just since the beginning of the year, and it is 70.7% lower than it was a year ago. Centex suspended its quarterly dividends back in October.