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Media Preview: Disney and Lions Gate to Report

I love the media sector, so Tuesday, February 9, will be an exciting day for me. After the market finishes its trading activities, we'll get reports from two entertainment companies: one's a big player in Hollywood, while the other would like to be just as big someday.

Let's start with the big gun. The Walt Disney Corporation (DIS) has first-quarter numbers all set to go, and investors are hoping for an unambiguous beat on the bottom line. The call is for net income to fall somewhere around 39 cents per share, according to Earnings.com. Kind of lousy, considering the Mouse made 41 cents per share in last year's Q1.

Continue reading Media Preview: Disney and Lions Gate to Report

Should 'Avatar' Be Rushed to DVD Now That It Is in Second Place?

We all knew News Corp.'s (NWS) Avatar would cede the top spot to some film someday. To be honest, I didn't think Sony's (SNE) Dear John would be the one to do it.

According to Box Office Mojo, John grossed roughly $32 million at domestic theaters. That was more than enough to put the sci-fi flick in second place. However, no one should feel sad for News Corp.; Avatar's worldwide haul now stands at over $2.2 billion.

Continue reading Should 'Avatar' Be Rushed to DVD Now That It Is in Second Place?

Five Super Bowl Stocks to Sideline

5 Super Bowl stocks to sidelineOn the other hand, not all the stocks paying out big bucks for Super Bowl ad spots are going to see a lift as a result.

Here are five stocks having too much trouble right now for a few glitzy ads to fix.

Disney (DIS): A Toy Story sequel may get a decent draw, but this entertainment giant needs a new brand to rejuvenate its bottom line and build lasting success in 2010.

Continue reading Five Super Bowl Stocks to Sideline

News Corp. Reports Fantastic Second Quarter

News Corp. (NWS), the media conglomerate that competes with Disney (DIS), Time Warner (TWX), and General Electric's (GE) NBC Universal, posted Q2 data after the bell on Tuesday. Shareholders should have few complaints on this one.

Revenues went up 10%, and earnings on an adjusted basis jumped well over 60% to 25 cents per share. According to Reuters, the estimate was 20 cents per share. Besides the beat, cash from operations was a lot better in the current six-month period. In the comparable frame, cash was used to fund operating activities.

Continue reading News Corp. Reports Fantastic Second Quarter

Is the Free Ride Over at Hulu?

Ahhh, Hulu. That wonderful destination where I can re-acquaint myself with my favorite Justin-Timberlake-on-SNL moments, catch up on episodes of Greek, and search for those old Silver Spoons clips I remember so fondly. The two-year-old website is a joint venture between Walt Disney's (DIS) ABC Network, General Electric's (GE) NBC Universal division, and News Corp.'s (NWS) FOX Entertainment Group, and is partially funded by Providence Equity Partners.

But just as online news readers may soon be charged to access The New York Times online, we may have to open our wallets for certain corners of the Hulu universe (they will likely still let me watch Silver Spoons for free).

Continue reading Is the Free Ride Over at Hulu?

News Corp.'s 'Avatar' Isn't Ready to Step Down

Did you think Mel Gibson had a chance this past weekend? Probably not. By now, we're all used to seeing News Corp.s (NWS) Avatar take the top spot. And for those keeping score, this is the seventh victory in a row for James Cameron (who, by the way, may offer lessons for entrepreneurs, according to Tom Taulli).

According to early estimates from Box Office Mojo, Avatar made another $30 million at domestic theaters over the past three days. At the time of this writing, the worldwide gross was just under $2 billion (it will definitely go over $2 billion, don't worry). Time Warner's (TWX) Edge of Darkness, starring the aforementioned Gibson, wasn't even close to a challenge for the 3-D aliens. Give it some credit, though: It came in second with $17 million.

Continue reading News Corp.'s 'Avatar' Isn't Ready to Step Down

Relaunch of Spider-Man Franchise Could Be Shareholder Friendly

Here's an interesting article over at ICv2.com. As you may have heard, the Spider-Man franchise is about to undergo a mutation. Sony (SNE) apparently had creative differences with director Sam Raimi over the script for the fourth iteration in the series featuring Tobey Maguire as the titular character. This unfortunately led to a parting of the ways, and the need for a reboot, as they say in Hollywood.

There's an interesting business aspect to the deal that makes it imperative for Sony to come out with a new Spider-Man on a pretty regular basis. The rights will revert back to Marvel if Sony does nothing with them. Guess it's a use-it-or-lose-it deal.

Continue reading Relaunch of Spider-Man Franchise Could Be Shareholder Friendly

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BKC, BP, CVX, DIS, GLW, INTC, NAT ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Citigroup upgraded Chevron (CVX) to buy from hold after raising its long-term oil price assumption to $80 per barrel from $65. The firm raised its target price for Chevron shares to $97 from $78 and said it expects oil prices to push towards $90 per barrel in the near-term. Note, Citi also upgraded BP (BP) and Petrobras (PBR) Monday morning to buy from hold.
  • Jefferies upgraded Overseas Shipholding (OSG) and Nordic American Tanker (NAT) to buy from underperform as it expects crude oil tanker charter rates to improve in 2010 based on expectations for increased OPEC production levels. The firm raised its target on Overseas Shipholding to $60 from $22 and on Nordic American to $41 from $25.
  • Goldman upgraded Corning (GLW) to buy from neutral as they believe the LCD cycle may have bottomed in 4Q09 vs. their previous expectation of 2H10. The firm raised its target to $23 from $18. Shares were also upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank on expectations that consensus estimates will trend higher due to robust TV demand and tight capacity. The firm raised its target price on shares to $24 from $19.
  • Lam Research (LRCX) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • Intel (INTC) was upgraded to hold from sell at Auriga.
  • Regal Entertainment (RGC) was upgraded to overweight from market weight at Thomas Weisel.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BKC, BP, CVX, DIS, GLW, INTC, NAT ...

Should Studios Adopt the James Cameron Model of Moviemaking?

News Corp.'s (NWS) Avatar is exploding like a blinding supernova at the box office. Although I have no interest in seeing it, I undoubtedly must be one of the only people on the planet who lacks the need to become immersed in the 3-D adventure. According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, James Cameron's "titanic" cinematic beast scored another $68 million at domestic theaters over the New Year's weekend. Total so far: better than $350 million.

Time Warner's (TWX) take on a famous literary detective had to settle for second place yet again. Sherlock Holmes pulled in $38 million. Coming in third was the Alvin and the Chipmunks sequel, also released by News Corp. Indeed, there's no shortage of excitement at the multiplex.

Continue reading Should Studios Adopt the James Cameron Model of Moviemaking?

Thoughts on Time Warner's 2009 Box Office Performance

Time Warner (TWX), whose colleagues include The Walt Disney Company (DIS), General Electric Corporation's (GE) Universal, and Sony Corporation (SNE), did an incredible job at the box office in 2009. It could even end up being the top studio, although there is currently some ambiguity on that count. This article over at Variety says that News Corp. (NWS) might come out ahead once all is said and done.

Nevertheless, according to Moviefone, Time Warner's movie operations captured an estimated $3.99 billion at multiplexes around the globe. Yes, it's an impressive feat, and it was done with the help of a major franchise. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince grossed well over $900 million on a worldwide basis. Even more amazing was the performance of surprise comedy hit The Hangover. And to think, that one had an R rating, something that tends to limit the potential for big success.

Continue reading Thoughts on Time Warner's 2009 Box Office Performance

A New Year's Resolution for Lions Gate Entertainment

We all have wishes and resolutions ready for New Year's Eve. I'm eager to get a lot done in 2010, and I'm hoping for certain investment events to transpire. One of them involves Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF). I want the company to get its house in order and give me an excuse to take on some shares.

Without question, Lions Gate has been a profitable trading vehicle for some; for the rest, it's been fun to watch. At some point, though, I'd like to move from being a passive observer of the studio to one with a vested interest. That's because I think it'll be an excellent takeover play sometime in the future.

Continue reading A New Year's Resolution for Lions Gate Entertainment

News Corp.'s 'Avatar' and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks' Had a Great Weekend

Shareholders of News Corp. (NWS) are probably happy this Monday as two of the company's films -- Avatar and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel -- did very well over the three-day holiday weekend.

James Cameron's Avatar topped the charts at domestic theaters, pulling in an estimated $75 million, according to Box Office Mojo. If the project can continue to attract moviegoers in large droves, as well as propagate a lot of repeat business, then it should break even before it hits other distribution channels.

Continue reading News Corp.'s 'Avatar' and 'Alvin and the Chipmunks' Had a Great Weekend

Facebook COO friends Disney board

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has a high-caliber board of directors, which includes heavyweights like Apple, Inc.'s (AAPL) Steve Jobs. Having solid leadership has been critical for the company's growth, which is not easy when dealing with the whims of kids.

So, this week Disney added another top operator to its board: the COO of Facebook, Sheryl Sandberg. While she has held the post since only March 2008, her Internet savvy is much deeper. For example, she managed the highly successful AdWords and AdSense programs at Google Inc. (GOOG).

Continue reading Facebook COO friends Disney board

A resolution for Hollywood in the new year: Get home video moving again

The DVD market continues to disappoint. There's an article over at The Hollywood Reporter discussing the industry and its sorry state. According to the piece, sales of discs are down 13% at the end of the third quarter.

Interestingly enough, the article goes on to give a positive spin to the news by pointing out that the Blu-ray format is gaining traction, and that digital distribution and rental of discs are also acting as offsetting elements. While that may be true, I'm not so sure I can be as positive, because I still believe that the studios have a long way to go in terms of answering the DVD issue.

Continue reading A resolution for Hollywood in the new year: Get home video moving again

'Avatar' Makes $77 Million in First Weekend

It was the weekend that everyone was waiting for. The debut of James Cameron's Avatar was an event approaching mythic dimension: Don't tell me you didn't know it was coming, because I wouldn't believe you for a nanosecond. The hype was out there, and it became a self-replicating, viral zeitgeist able to cross multiple mediums with ease. Its marketing message dominated the collective cinematic discussion, and even though it didn't possess the brand access of Time Warner's (TWX) The Lord of the Rings trilogy.

Which is why I found the domestic opening of the project quite puzzling. I thought Avatar, distributed by News Corp. (NWS), was worth a heck of a lot more than $77 million, which is what the film grossed, according to Box Office Mojo.

Continue reading 'Avatar' Makes $77 Million in First Weekend

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Last updated: February 10, 2010: 12:59 AM

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